AllTheTrackingThatFits
PolloramallamalamadingdongVille
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Update: I goofed initially, and missed the fact that the Dippers are now winning even among the well-off...That is a major turn around compared to the last time Angus Reid was in the field a month ago...I mean, if they've lost the Creme-Belt...What's left for the BCL?
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In my opinion the story is told in two figures from the AReid report.
First, the tracker...Notice that, as we have pointed out before, now that the Cons have been destroyed there really is nowhere for the Snooklandians to get more votes from. As such, they have now flatlined and they have NOT taken away any support from the Dippers:
Second, the major demos....Again, the Snooklandians are getting their gong rung in every single category...And that even includes that last one (the well-off) which is a major turn of events since the last AR Poll (Ppdate: please note that I originally bamboozled myself on that 100K+ category, because in the last poll the numbers were 51 to 34 in favour of the BCL....Seriously)
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Now...I'm pretty sure that, in the war room, the Snooklandians and their smear merchants are taking satisfaction from the fact that they have, indeed, managed to drive down Mr. Dix' approval rating a little...But, in my opinion, that should actually worry them because if all that negative crap hasn't actually moved the numbers that matter....Well... they really and truly just might be doomed...
And, unlike some other of the Lotuslandian pro-media members, who yesterday complained about the Dipper livestream problems, kudos to Mark Hume of the Globe for actually doing his job and going to hear Mr. Dix speak (and take questions from reporters afterwards) as well as going to hear Ms. Clark speak on Saturday (and run away from reporters afterwards)...
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ReplyDeleteInteresting, looking at a Previous AReid Poll Graph, from August 2009 to November 2010 (Page 4 of 10).
Two points RossK, there appears to be a lack of data, anywhere on the Internet, in regards to the 2009 Elections popularity, the fortunes of El Gordo, then he introduces the HST, BC Liberal Fortunes flounder after discovering they didn't have a working Radar in the Ministry of Finance.
November 2010, BC Liberals popularity goes SKY HIGH because of the announcement of El Gordo's tearful resignation.
March 11, 2011 Christy is Sworn in, and the popularity for the BC Liberals TANKS.
What is curious about the older data on "Page 4" is that the information is stretched out and leaves the impression that not much had changed .... flat-lined. Same months are involved in both graphs. Except for one minor detail, Campbell's resignation is NOT included. Why?
yes, even some of the wealthy may decide it is time to clean house. back in the day when Barrett was elected I recall seeing NDP signs in the front yards on the west side's wealthier neighbourhoods. everyone understands that the accumulation of debt at its current rate can not continue without adverse effects on the whole economy in B.C.
ReplyDeleteMany just doing thing christie is up to the task of running the province. by voting NDP she will exit stage left and the right can begin rebuilding. Some may have come to understand Glen Clark really did leave money in the bank when he left office. it could people might think another NDP premier could do the same. We certainly know the lieberals can't balance a budget.
In a matter unrelated to the run-up to the provincial election ... Watched your eastern schooled kid's Prophouse performance of her original song. (Wish we had youtube back in the days of dinosaur punk, if only to double-check hazy, if not blacked out, memories of shows we thought cooler than Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath put together with Vanilla Fudge on top.) Her song stood out on the night in the company of some very good songs and still does now. Hope she's had time to write more while keeping up with her reading.
ReplyDeleteHmmm...Just had a dinner conversation about how the well healed are supposed to vote. Any nob who feels his or her wealth is threatened by the NDP is truly fucked up. I think it's their guilty consciences t makes 'em occasionally vote Green (!) Check out the Greens in West Van: maybe it's just the wives having a bit of G&T fun at their husbands' boring fascist expense. Besides, it's safe enough: too many Green votes only yields more BC Liberals (they split the vote in 13 ridings in 2009...the BC Liberal majority was less by one.) Note, too, the Victoria federal by-election where Green support rose in magical proportion to the sudden dearth of Conservative support. Could it be it was as easy as the forgone exclusion of the Harperites? Or that it was safe as all get out?
ReplyDeleteOne more sign the BC Liberals are toast: the cavalier frivolity of their erstwhile supporters. They can afford it. Expect a bump for the Sex Party (although tokers are probably going to take this election too seriously to vote eponymously....that is, they can't afford not to.)
NVG--
ReplyDeleteInteresting question.
You've got me...Unless, of course, it's the obvious.
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e.a.f.--
It's a possibility, I guess...I really wonder, though, if this is due, at least in part, to sampling variation between the two polls...I think it is important to realize, for example, that that particular demographic has a skewed geographic distribution that could lead to big differences depending which area was most heavily sampled...But that's only one possibility...If it's still there in March, well, then I'm with you...
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Oh man.
Thanks Beer. I'll let her know. She's engulfed in the flames of midterm exams and papers at the moment.
Different topic...Same deal....Have you seen...this?
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scotty--
You're killing me!
That last paragraph especially.
In all seriousness, I have been struck by that frivolity cord in some of the Twittmachine nonsense from those fine folks.
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I tagged "Open Culture" to my favorites soon as I finished the Iggy doc. Some day when the horses aren't running to form I'm going get into it. Great piece on Buk. Same philosophy as the Pink Fairies - don't try - do it!
ReplyDeleteYa.
ReplyDeleteAnd I really, really dig the fact that it was Mike Watt, whose whole life seems to be based on that edict, who went back to Bukowski's wife to get to the heart of the matter.
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