InTheChairVille
So.
You've probably heard all the blurble and gurgle about this speaker thing on the TeeVee and in the public prints without having the situation actually spelled out in terms of the, you know, basic math of the thing.
Essentially, you need 47 plus 1 (for the speaker) to rule the province of British Columbia. So with the Dippers currently at 46, total, they would still be fine if they made a deal with the 2 Greeniacs.
But if the Dippers lose one of the recounts going on in either Juan de Fuca (NDP up by 20*) or Surrey Centre (NDP up by 96), they would lose that majority and, to rule, would have to find Darryl Plecas 2.0 from the other side to act as speaker which could be tough given the vice grip of the Whackaloons on the Conservative party.
And then there is the 'worst case scenario', explained by Cindy Harnett in the Times Colonist with an assist from political scientist David Black:
Can you imagine any Dipper flipping in that worst case?
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*I assume that the JDF lead has shrunk from Saturday night's 23 to 20 today given that Elections BC is now indicating that the 100% of the ballot boxes (rather than Saturday night's 99.77%) have been reported.
Something else interesting from Ms. Harnett's piece is that she quotes Adam Olsen as saying that Sonia Furstenau can play any part she wishes to with the Greens moving forward...
So.
You've probably heard all the blurble and gurgle about this speaker thing on the TeeVee and in the public prints without having the situation actually spelled out in terms of the, you know, basic math of the thing.
Essentially, you need 47 plus 1 (for the speaker) to rule the province of British Columbia. So with the Dippers currently at 46, total, they would still be fine if they made a deal with the 2 Greeniacs.
But if the Dippers lose one of the recounts going on in either Juan de Fuca (NDP up by 20*) or Surrey Centre (NDP up by 96), they would lose that majority and, to rule, would have to find Darryl Plecas 2.0 from the other side to act as speaker which could be tough given the vice grip of the Whackaloons on the Conservative party.
And then there is the 'worst case scenario', explained by Cindy Harnett in the Times Colonist with an assist from political scientist David Black:
...If the worst case for the NDP happens next week and they lose two seats in the recounts, the NDP would fall to 44 (or 46 with Green support) and the Conservatives would bump up to 47 but because they would have to produce a Speaker they’d be back down to 46...
Can you imagine any Dipper flipping in that worst case?
Me neither.
_____
*I assume that the JDF lead has shrunk from Saturday night's 23 to 20 today given that Elections BC is now indicating that the 100% of the ballot boxes (rather than Saturday night's 99.77%) have been reported.
Something else interesting from Ms. Harnett's piece is that she quotes Adam Olsen as saying that Sonia Furstenau can play any part she wishes to with the Greens moving forward...
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10 comments:
Landslide Passarell?
Chuck--
Oh my gosh - you're right! He did swing left to right.
Of course, if Landslide Al's ghost were to become speaker we would have to add (phantom?) grizzly bear fighting to the job description.
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Hung Parliament, British Style https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/
It is one thing to change from BC Liberal to Conservative, but pushing it a bit to go from NDP to Con or vice versa. These are not Progressive Conservatives.
Oh the joys of our antiquated, first past the post electoral system.
The bigger problem for Eby's gang is that a second election, within the next few months may be even worse for the NDP.
The problem for the NDP is that they can never admit they are wrong or "Its not my fault" syndrome". We saw with their massive defeat to Gordon Campbell and Eby's arrogance is on full display.
As for the Cons, they will wait until the NDP implodes, then reap the whirlwind of politcal arrogance.
The other factor is some very bad eccomomic news coming quite soon, in the form of cost overruns on major projects, which may further imperil the NDP's from forming government.
It should also be mentioned, when doing the math, that in the event of a tied vote in the legislature, the speaker gets to make the deciding vote.
Another election cold be coming and sooner than anticipated.
Eby should be refining/ reforming his platform now and letting the public know of the changes.
He should also hammer the Conservative plans of increased deficit spending .
Now is not a time to just sit around twiddling fingers and thumbs!
TB
How about a Green as speaker?
The speaker can cast the deciding vote.
TB
Emptywheel today
First, Justin Trudeau testified last week that Tucker was being funded by RT.
Conservative political analyst Tucker Carlson and Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson were among those who were funded by the Russian state-owned news outlet RT to boost anti-vax claims in 2022, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed while under oath during testimony delivered Wednesday at the Foreign Interference Commission.
I’m genuinely a bit confused by Trudeau’s claim
TB--
Interesting suggestion. Would certainly work if the Dippers don't lose a seat in the re-count, I reckon.
NVG--
If Marcy Wheeler is confused by JT's claim, we should all definitely hold our horses until we see definitive evidence...If it's available she will ferret out such evidence...Many of her readers are also very knowledgeable, so worth watching that comment thread.
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