Stopping The Cons In Lotusland

StrategicVoting
TheTimeIsNowVille

Programming Note: Live.... Election.....Blogging...... Monday....... Night.............

Sometimes a vote is just a vote.

And sometimes it's something more.

Using the stats and polls from Greg Morrow's indispensable Democratic Space as a guide, here are our recommendations for how people in close ridings in British Columbia can help to keep us from going back to the days when women were forced to seek out back alley butchers.

And we're not joking about that, not to mention the scores of other 'back to the bad old days' legislative and policy changes that will very likely take place if the party formerly known as CRAP gains a stranglehold on power.

What we're trying to say is that it is time to be pragmatic (or at least know when you can be safe with your dipper vote).

So, with that spirit in mind, here goes:


North Vancouver - The Dipper is not in the race and the Con, Ms. Silver, is so far gone that it wouldn't surprise us if she voted to take away her own right to choose. For lefties, this is one of those must-be pragmatic ones because it's tight between Silver and Liberal Don Bell.

Vote Liberal

Vancouver Centre - You can vote for either Hedy or Svend safely as you wish because the Con has no chance. But understand this, Svend is closing in on the good doctor. He can win.

Vote NDP

West Van/Sunshine Coast - The riding formerly held by the current CPC campaign co-chair, a man Rafe Mair once referred to as the Chairman of the Mouth Breathers and Bottom Feeders, is up for grabs, but the Dipper is not really in the race. Another time to be pragmatic to stop the Con.

Vote Liberal

Vancouver Kingsway - Ian Waddell is a fading second, but you can vote safely for him because the Con is out it. And besides, why would you want to vote for Emerson, even if you were a real liberal.

Vote NDP

Pitt Meadows/Maple Ridge/Mission - The Con incumbent is vulnerable and the NDP's Mike Bocking has consistently polled 2nd.

Vote NDP

Nanaimo/Alberni - This is one that swung Con in 2004 in a traditionally strong labour-leftist area. Polls have the NDP down by maybe 5 points with the Liberals out of it. If you're Red but want to stop the Harpies go Orange.

Vote NDP

Esquimalt/Juan de Fuca - The polls say the Dipper has a chance but things are volatile and the Con, who in this riding really is a true believer, is not out of it. Thus, the true Con stopper here is Keith Martin.

Vote Liberal

Victoria - David Anderson is gone, but so is the Con. Way, way gone. Thus you can safely vote for dipper Denise Savoie who is in a tight race with the new Lib.

Vote NDP

Vancouver Island North - All Liberals, please bail. You cannot win but Dipper Catherine Bell can.

Vote NDP

Skeena/Bulkley Valley - The Con is within striking distance of incumbent Dipper Nathan Cullen. Do not, I repeat, do not vote Liberal.

Vote NDP.

Remember, now is the time to stop these people. If you think that it won't be so bad because Mr. Harper will not have a real mandate, think again. By way of example, just remember that another 'evolved' neocon who made much of his non-existent kindler, gentler, compassionate side did everything possible to consolidate power after he squeaked in with no mandate on the strength of negative votes in the Sunshine State in the year 2000.

OK?


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If I've missed anything, or if you disagree with something, feel free to post it up in the comments.
Update, Late Sunday Night: All bets are off. Get a load of this (and don't forget to ignore all SC polls). Can you say 'well within the MoE'?


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Where's Stephen?

The(soontobenolonger)PinkoConFollies
8thEdition

The sheep in the mainstream media are chasing their tails trying to figure out what this means:

Saturday, January 21, 2006/Posted at 10:51am EST
Canadian Press

Toronto — Stephen Harper, anxious to protect his party's lead heading into Monday's vote, has cut off news conferences with the national media.

The Conservative leader brushed aside questions from reporters as he campaigned in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto.

His spokeswoman, Carolyn Stewart Olsen, says Mr. Harper no longer has time for formal question-and-answer periods.

Of course he doesn't have time.

Because the de-pinkofication has begun.

And when you've been slathering yourself in calamine lotion for six weeks it takes a long time to get clear.

Have you ever been clear*?

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*With apologies to Leonard Cohen by way of Jennifer Warnes.

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Will Johnny Get His Guns?*

Where'sTheQuid
Not-SoProPolVille

Last night we noted that the Conservative Party of Canada's National Campaign Co-Chair, John Reynolds, told the Moonies that it was time to patch things up with the armed and dangerous Elephant next door:


Mr. Reynolds said the first practical step in improving security cooperation between Canada and the United States would be to restart discussions about joining the anti-ballistic missile program.

"We've got to sit down and discuss this. There is a quid pro quo for everything," he said.


Which got us to wondering - just what might be in that "everything"?

Now, being from British Columbia, we know a lot about Mr. Reynolds and what he has said and done in the past.

And a lot of it gives us the willies.

But, at this moment in time, maybe what scares us most is something he had to say when he was briefly (thankfully) the Leader of the Opposition.

The following is from Hansard (ie. statements made in Canuckistan's House of Commons) in the run-up to George Bush's illegal invasion of Iraq.


Mr. John Reynolds (Leader of the Opposition, Canadian Alliance): Mr. Speaker, the Prime Minister said that it was hypothetical, which I think is his new word when he does not know the answer.

There was no broad international consensus in support of strikes against Saddam Hussein in 1998, but Canada stood with its allies regardless of the hue and cry from the left. It is not doing that today.

Again, to quote what the Prime Minister said in 1998:

Make no mistake, Saddam's behaviour to date indicates that he will not honour diplomatic solutions so long as they are not accompanied by a threat of intervention...Canada cannot stand on the sidelines in such a moment.

Will Canada today be counted with our American allies and go side by side with whatever they do in Iraq?

Did you get that last part?

"Whatever they do" in Iraq?

So, now will it be same for Iran?

Or Syria?

Or North Korea?

Or Venezeuala?

Or Northern Alberta?

Whatever they do?

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With sincerest apologies to Dalton Trumbo

One Last Splash of Calamine.....

PinkoConFollies
7thEdition

..... For The Road

You could almost hear the sound of pink lotion hitting skin as Stephen Harper evaded, and then obfuscated, when Anthony (notsosaintly)Germain asked him what he would do to the CBC this morning on The House.

Essentially, Mr. Harper said he loves the CBC. Sort of. In fact he even suggested that he was the only leadership candidate who has actually worked for the Mother Corp.

To his miniscule credit (because went for the diversion and thus chickened out on following up on the real question) Germain pushed Harper on the employment issue.

Of course, it turned out that Harper never actually worked for the CBC he just worked for advocacy groups that received payment from them.

Sounds a little like payola to me, but that's not the point.

No.

The real point is that all that calamine-assisted pink tinge can be removed with one washing.

And you can be sure that, regardless the outcome on Monday, Mr. Harper will be scrubbing, hard, even behind his ears, when he takes his shower on Tuesday morning.

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Moonie, Moonie On The Mall.....

GimmeSomeLimelightPlease
PickMe!Ville

.....Who's the Biggest Bimbo Of Them All?

National CPC Campaign Co-Chair and former Stockboy head watercarrier John Reynolds erupts:

By Levon Sevunts
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
January 21, 2006

MONTREAL -- Canada's Conservatives, who look increasingly sure of winning national elections on Monday, say they are hoping for a fresh start in the nation's frosty relations with the United States.
John Reynolds, official opposition house leader, said while trade disputes between Canada and the United States will remain, the tone of political discourse will change.
"We had a government that for 12 years in Canada has called [Americans] words like 'coward' and 'stupid,'?" said Mr. Reynolds, who co-chairs the Conservative elections campaign. "That would change. Our party is not filled with anti-American people like it is within the Liberal Party."

Mr. Reynolds, who spoke to The Washington Times after a boisterous rally of Conservative sympathizers in a downtown Montreal hotel Wednesday, said Conservative leader Stephen Harper and President Bush should sit down and work out the trade problems.

"We've been friends and neighbors for a long, long time," Mr. Reynolds said. "We are major trading partners in the world, we've got a lot to offer each other and we have to get that friendship back on track just like you'd have with your next-door neighbor."

Mr. Reynolds said the first practical step in improving security cooperation between Canada and the United States would be to restart discussions about joining the anti-ballistic missile program.

"We've got to sit down and discuss this. There is a quid pro quo for everything," he said.


Everything?

So, what else is up for grabs Mr. Reynolds?


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Bloviation For The Nation

SurpriseSurprise
ThePollosphere

A few days ago we wondered which of the Corp-0-Media mouth organs would have the guts to blow the whistle on the CPC's fake landslide.

Well, imagine our surprise when it turned out to be Fast Eddie G's shop itself that did the deed:

By STEVEN CHASE and GLORIA GALLOWAY AND CAMPBELL CLARK
Friday, January 20, 2006 Posted at 5:23 AM EST
From Friday's Globe and Mail

The Conservative Party's lead in the polls has narrowed to nine percentage points as voters in Ontario and Quebec have second thoughts about a Stephen Harper government.

The latest poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV by the Strategic Counsel shows national support for the Conservatives has dropped to 37 per cent from 41 per cent, while support for the Liberals has risen to 28 per cent from 25 per cent. Backing for the New Democratic Party dipped one percentage point to 16 per cent.

The race has tightened in the face of a Liberal advertising attack on Mr. Harper and an anti-Tory offensive in Quebec by the Bloc Québécois and Liberals, which have warned of the front-running party's social-conservative leanings, said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel.

The thing is, this is no mea culpa.

Why?

Because it was Allan Gregg's strategically counselled operatives and a more than willing Mr. Greenspon that had a huge part in starting the whole CPC 'Aura of Inevitability' fiction in the first place.

Thus, I would suggest that this bit of bloviation is actually a pre-emptive bit of butt protection from somebody who is worried that folks might be starting to pay attention.

Regardless, many people will say that this 'news' that the lead is shrinking won't matter anyway because it's too late - what with the weekend inserted between now and the election and all.

And ten, or maybe five, or maybe even two years ago that may have been true.

But that was before the Bloggodome emerged as a 'go to' information and opinion source for growing numbers of people.

And, unlike highly paid and even higher falutin' bigtime journos, the keepers of the Bloggodome do not take weekends off.

Time for the keepers to get to work.

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Scott Tribe is on this one, as is pogge, as was Declan before it even started.
Paul Wells is on it too, if cryptically.

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They'll Get By With A....

RunSilent,RunDeep
WhirlitzerVille

.....Little Help From Their Friends

The following is a leaked Email from Paul Weyrich to the Faithful which was posted up by the New York Observer, home of fighting Joe Conasan:


From: Paul Weyrich
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2006 9:38 AM
To: Bob Thompson [a staffer at Weyrich's Free Congress Foundation]
Subject: message from Canada
Importance: High

Please get this message to the Stanton, Family Forum and Wednesday lunch groups:

I received a call last night from Gerald Chipeur, an important figure in Canada’s Conservative Party. He told me that Conservatives are with-in striking distance of electing an outright majority in Parliamentary elections Monday.

He said the Canadian media, which is trying to save the current Liberal government, has a strategy of calling conservatives in the USA in the hopes that someone will inadvertently say something that can be hung around the Conservatives.

Canadian voters have been led to believe that American conservatives are scary and if the Conservative party can be linked with us, they perhaps can diminish a Conservative victory. Chipeur asks that if Canadian media calls, please do not be interviewed until Monday evening at which point hopefully there will be reason to celebrate.

Many thanks.



And just who is this Mr. Weyrich?

Well, we don't think it would be unreasonable to call him one of the original (notso)Great Uncles of the latest incarnation of the American Neandercon Movement.

Paul Weyrich is considered by conservative Powers That Be as the most powerful man in American politics today. Weyrich allegedly founded the immensely influential conservative think tank, Heritage Foundation, in 1973 with funding from Joseph Coors of the Coors beer empire and Richard Mellon-Scaife, heir of the Carnegie-Mellon fortune.

So, never mind. Move along. There's nothing to be concerned with here

And besides, nobody should be worried about the kinder, gentler more compassionate former uber-right-biter Mr. Harper anyway, right?

And even if he wins, his mandate won't be strong.

Right?

After all, it's not as if anyone from the Heritage-cranked Whirlitzer gave anyone reason to believe that the same comforting things were also true of another of Mr Weyrich's favorite political nephews, George W. Bush, in the year 2000.

Right?

As in way, way, way........Right.

Right?

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Original link source: Ian Welsh at 'Tilting At Windmills, where a vigorous discussion on the ties of Mr. Chipeur are being discussed.

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Out Lying On The Barbeque Circuit

WhereDidMyStampedeGo?
HarperVille


Remember back last summer when the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada started flippin' burgers and wearing too tight leather vests, make-up and cowboy hats at county fairs, stampedes and such.

Some longtime observers of the man suggested he was undergoing an image transplant.

Others, especially those who were a tad more cynical, suggested that his handlers were actually sending him OUT into the country so that they could do a little bit of creative LYING about the true nature of his hardhearted, hawkwonkish personality.

Of course back then it all seemed like a big joke.

And, given the apparent ineptitude of the strategy at the time, who could have possibly imagined that the same handlers might actually be capable of assembling a secret team of PR/Spinmongers masquerading as unbiased Pollosphereians whose job it would be to push the outlier buttons for all they are worth right to the bitter end.

Interestingly, in the past few days it has become apparent that you no longer have to read tea leaves or engage in round-the-clock conspiracy theory seances to start catching glimpses of these potential secretive outliers at work.

In fact, all you have to do is look at the numbers.

National Poll Results
Date	Poll	Lib	CPC	NPD	BQ	GRN	MoE
Jan. 18	SES	31	37	17	11	5	+/-3.1
Jan. 18	Ekos	29	35	18	13	4	+/-3.4
Jan. 18	SC	25	41	17	12	5	+/-3.1

As Mahigan at Pogge asked yesterday - can you spot them? (the outliers I mean)

Thought so.


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Most importantly, check out the two inliers. The lead is not, repeat not, unassailable. So, wonder, which major news organization will bust its way out of the outlier corral first and start reporting it as such? Anybody want to place their bet(s)?

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Where's Mahrer?

ObfuscationsForAllTheNations
TortureVille


Apparently, Little Scottie McClellan missed the Mahrer Arar story on the front page of that tiny, obscure paper of little influence, The Washington Post, back in those heady, not to mention halcyon, days when he was busy frolicking about the White House Press (backdoor)Rooms with James Gannon/Guckert:

At today’s press conference Scott McClellan claimed he has never heard reports that the United States sent detainees to Syria, where they were tortured:

QUESTION: There are allegations that we sent people to Syria to be tortured…

MCCLELLAN: To Syria?

QUESTION: Yes. You’ve never heard of any allegations like that?

MCCLELLAN: No, I’ve never heard that one. That’s a new one.

QUESTION: Syria? You haven’t heard that?

MCCLELLAN: That’s a new one.

QUESTION: Well, I can assure you it’s been well publicized. My question is…

MCCLELLAN: By what, bloggers?

You go Scottie.

And while you're on your way, watch out for that scary monster, octagenarian dragon lady that believes in a crazy thing called the Constitution of the United States named Helen Thomas.

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Sanity Island

LeftOfLeft
TheRealLotuslandia

When people from away, even if they are only from, say, Portland Oregon, think of Left Coast Canuckistan they likely think of Vancouver.

The City.

Not the Island.

But Vancouver Island, which is almost 300 miles long and bigger than many European countries, is the true beacon of light round here these days.

How do I know this?

Well, actually, it's not me that knows. Instead, it is local pundit, gadfly, and all-around bon vivant Vaughn Palmer who knows, because it was he who just told the CBC that he thinks it is possible that the entire Island could go NDP in next week's Federal Election (Part 1, Real Audio, 4:05 to 4:45).

For everyone from South of the 49th who's been asking, the New Democratic Party* is the latest iteration of the left of center group that gave this country Universal Health Care.

Anyway, the upshot of all this is the very real possibility that the Island could well become an Oasis of socially progressive sanity floating in a massive Sea of North American Neanderconism.

So, maybe the Islandistas should consider going one step further by seceding while simultaneously recruiting the best, brightest and most tolerant from all over the continent to power the enterprise with good, clean brain power.

Which isn't as crazy as it sounds because the huge land mass of the Island, which has essentially the same temperate climate as Seattle, is currently home to a measly 500,000 people.

Wonder if I can make a go of it as a science geek living in Port Alice?


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*Or, as former leader, and all around good guy, Ed Broadbent (our own George McGovern) likes to call it "The NDP Party, Party!"

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Is The Harpoon Stuck In It's Own Blubber?

Where'dThatMoGo?
HypeNoMoreVille

Well, well, well.

It looks like the Harpoon just may have peaked too Soon.

This from Mahigan's daily tracking poll round-up over at POGGE:

National Poll Results
Date	Poll	Lib	CPC	NPD	BQ	GRN	MoE
Jan. 16	SES	30	37	18	10	4	+/-3.1
Jan. 16	Ekos	30	36	19	12	3	+/-3.7
Jan. 16	SC	27	40	16	11	6	+/-2.5

Now, first off ignore that Strategic Counsel business. As we have discussed before, proprietor Allan Gregg has a track record of sending his operatives out onto the right-sided fringe of the Pollosphere.

So, that leaves SES and Ekos.

And they both show a tightening. So much so that they are at the outer margins of the MoE with respect to the gap betweeen Our (small)Paul and (notso)Little Stephen.

19 times out of 20, of course.

See this anywhere being screamed, above the fold, in 144 type on the front pages of any Canned West dailies today?

Or even the Toronto Globe and (nolongerEmpire)Mail for that matter?

Thought not.

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Bang The Thread Slowly

Are You Talkin' To Me?
No Rage, No Bull Ville


Doug P. was good enough to post this up in response to my last screed on what might, or might not, be the scariest of all possible post-election alliances.

As one born an anglo-quebecer (read: born Liberal) who evolved from a raving Trudeaumaniac in '68 (I was sweet sixteen & a political virgin, ok?) into a New Democrat only after taking a coupla 2X4s up alongside the head (War Measures Act 1970/Wage & Price controls 1972) I consider it the greatest political tragedy of my generation that every small 'p' progressive in Quebec from Real Menard (Hon. BQ MP for Montreal-Holchelaga who outed himself in the House standing up to bigot Rosanne Skokes a few years ago) to my dearly-beloved francophone brother-in-law see eye-to-to-eye with me on social issues but have been completely co-opted by l'independance. Both have told me that if there were no BQ they would (mais oui!) vote NDP with me. In fact, Quebec is by far Canada's most socially progressive province.

Which just kills me.

Anyway, we won't have the numbers this time but maybe someday we'll see a BQ-NDP coalition. An even more unholy alliance than the Libs & Cons? (Which, btw, we already have here in BC. "THE SOCIALISTS ARE AT THE GATES!! as Wacky Bennet used to cry.) Before you call me crazy, think about it - maybe we _can_ work it out. Goddess knows Sir John A. and Sir Georges-E. didn't have an easy time of it at Quebec, Charlottetown or London but they cut a deal.

As they like to say over at my other favourite blog: 'Peace, Order and Good Government, Eh?'

WHO TOLD YOU DEMOCRACY WOULD BE EASY?

Wow!

Wonder what our old friend eteba will have to say about that one.

As far as I'm concerned it's stuff like that that makes this Bloggodome thing trip the night fantastic, not to mention electric.

Thanks Doug!

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The Really Scary Alliance

PinkoConFollies
6thEditionVille


As the day of reckoning draws nearer and one stares at those seat projections with increasing dread, I couldn't help but ask myself the following.........

Which of the following couplings should be feared most?

CPC and NDP? Likely a non-starter, hopefully on general principles and core beliefs, but also because the cold, hard numbers wouldn't work

CPC and BLOC? Hmmmm.....bizarre in a kind of kinked 'States' rights' sort of way, but reasonably unlikely over the long term given the disparity on social issues and spending priorities.

CPC and Liberals? The numbers work and, when you get right down to it, the majority of both parties neo-something-or-other policies actually mesh reasonably well.

The latter would be a marriage made in H - E - double-toothpicks, but it would allow Mr. Harper to pander to his base while at the same time permitting Mr. Martin to keep wearing his spiffy, if dated, 'Captain Canada' suit*. Of course, the backroom boys will be extremely happy to carve up the spoils for the duration.

In a parallel, demented provincial universe, in Lotuslandia terms it would be like making Gordon Campbell and Bill Bennett co-Premiers, with the wild Kelowna boy playing the part of the reasonable one.

Goddess help us all.


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*With 'Steamship Lines' written in invisible ink, of course.

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To Strat Or Not To Strat?

BeTwixtAndBetween
DilemnaVille


Rafe Mair who, in many ways, has come a long way since he served in the cabinet of Lotusland's local wild boy and progressive slayer, Bill Bennett, has a post up on the Tyee Election Blog giving his reasons why now is the time to vote Green.

Of course they’re not going to elect anyone - we all know that. But we also know that if they get more than 2% of the vote they get $1.75 per vote cast. This enables the party to get its message before the public such that pressure may be brought to bear on the other parties to at least think “green” once in awhile.

Thus my vote for the Greens does indeed count and I am making a small contribution towards environmental awareness.

Now, first let me say that on most matters environmental I very much agree with Mr. Mair.

But on this specific point I cannot agree with him. And it has nothing to do with the pseudo-rightsided leanings of national party leader Jim Harris.

No.

Instead, it has everything to do with Rafe's first phrase.

Of course, they’re not going to elect anyone........


Now, ordinarily, I'm a sucker for the way, way, waygone Underdog Victorious.

Even when he cannot possibly be.

Victorious, I mean.

But given the most likely outcome of this election I believe there is just too much at stake to take a flier, and ignore the strategic vote on principle.

So this is what I wrote in response to Mr. Mair's post:

This time around, I have to agree with (top of the thread commenter) Mr. Smith (who suggested a better course of action would be to vote strategically and give the Greens 10 bucks)*.

Especially with respect to many of the maritime issues that Mr. Mair is so passionate about.

Why?

Because, in my view, if this thing does turn out to be a calamine lotion-assisted** majority for Mr Harper, or even a minority in which the NDP is shut out due to an unholy, some might even suggest CRAPtacular, Alliance with the BLOCkheads, it is not difficult to imagine a massive deregulation effort that will result in unlimited fishfarming, an oil rig in every inlet, and supertanker gridlock stretching from Haida Gwaii to Galiano.

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*although you could make it $100 instead of $10 to ensure that you help make it possible for the Greens win over your friends and influence your uncles.
**which has resulted in the emergence of the ‘PinkoCon.

OK?

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Darwin Shrugs

PinkoConFollies
5thEditionVille

With the faux pinkofication process well underway, it's good to see that Mr. Stephen Harper has come to believe in the evolution of the self:

I think I'm a normal, thoughtful person," Mr. Harper said after delivering a speech to a convention of road builders. "Over the course of a decade, people's views evolve somewhat and situations change."


Sheesh.

Next thing you know Mr. Harper will be telling us that the emergence of new avian flu strains can occur without divine intervention.


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Original Link Source: Tim over at Peace Order and Good Government

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