Strat And Surge Update In BlueOrangeGreen B.C.

AllTheReturnsThatFit

AfterEleven,Eleven-ThirtyInNewfoundlandVille

________

Update: The day after.....I have done a bit of an analysis that David Beers appeared to not want to do on the Strat Vote on in the comments tagged on this post at The Tyee.

________

Comprehensive Elections Canada results, sans talking-head fiddle-faddle and babble, here.

Let us know what you think of the Strat and Surge Strategy or anything else as night unfolds (I'm still working, so my input will be sporadic until after midnight Newfie/Mercer time).

Our original 18 Strat and Surge recommendations are here.

___________

10:43pm...All done, will have a round-up dissection on the effectiveness of the Strat-Surge in a day or two...One thing for sure looking at the numbers is the fact that the FedLib brand has been mortally-wounded in BC by the Cons' Politics of Destruction.

10:35....Always classy, Ujji is obliquely blaming Iggy and the Dippers for defeating him in VanSouth...Now says his political career is over...Says he's moving on to social justice career...Really?....Working for who?

10:30pm...Think ConDuncan is going to finally prevail over DipperLeonard in VanIsleNorth...PolySciGuy Dipper Stewart will win in Burnaby Dougie Howser...Dipper Garrison pretty much has Esquimalt locked up....That....looks...like...it...If the rest of the country had only co-operated...

10:28pm...Well, whack me up the side of the head with some used vinyl, because....I could swear I just heard SHarper affecting a Stuart McLean voice...What will Dave and Morley think????

10:25pm....It looks like Liberal Hedy Fry will prevail in Rainbow-coloured (ironic, no?) Van Ctre....Surrey North looks to have gone to Dipper Sandhu over Conservative Cadman...We're down to just three too-close to call...

10:21pm....Did Steve-O just tell the country he's a 'Uniter'?

10:20pm...Lack of Strat (even split Dipper/Lib) handed WestVanSunshine to Con....Prog vote never had a chance in North Van, regardless...Dosanjh's Lib loss is big, 10% popular, very much aided by Orange surge...Will there be a bye-bye there soon, or will Cons hold on to their fine, fine, fine candidate for the duration?

10:10pm...Forgot to mention that DipperCullen took BerkeleyNorthSkeena in a walk with almost 60% of popular...I'm getting a wee bit worried about VanIsleNorthNow, ConDuncan as 500 vote lead with only 40 polls left, maybe the Strat wasn't quite strong enough as 5+5 went Lib/Green...

10:05pm...Still to close to call for sure in...VanIsleNorth...EsquimaltJuannie...VanCtre...SurreyNorth...NewtonND....Burnaby DougieHowser...

10:00pm...A long time now between polls reporting VanIsleNorth with ConDuncan up by a few hundred votes over Dipper Leonard...

9:51pm....OK, here is my first really, really bad mistake in the Strat thing...The Dipper is now in second in Van Ctre behind RedHedy...The splits there are unbelievable four ways....Winner will likely have <30% of popular....

9:44pm...Unless there are still some deep pocket Con Polls around the Royal Colwood GC still to come in it looks like Dipper Garrison is going to win a Surge&Strat-assisted Esquimalt Juannie....Hey, forget to mention that Dipper Atamanenko has completely Crushed con with a wee Strat-assist in Southern Interior...Not so for Dipper Shmigelsky in Kootenay-Colombia where ConWilks was just too strong...Just had a weird thought - what if the FedLibs look to Murray for caucus leadership assisted by some operative looking for leverage....Now, who might that turn out to be?

9:38pm...PoliSciGuy Dipper Stewart set to win in Burnaby Doogie-Howser, looks to be Strat-assisted due to folks laying off Lib and way, way off Green...DonaCon looks to be going down to Dipper Sandhu in Strat- & Surge-assisted Surrey North...In Newton Dipper Sims just ahead on crest of big, big Surge, but doesn't matter as Con is out, Lib incumbent could win...

9:35pm...Dipper close in Nanaimo-Alberni, but not good enough to beat Con...VanIsle still toss-up although Con has slight lead that is not swinging with every poll now...RedHedy has slight breathing room of non-Strat-assisted CremeCon now...EarthWind&Fire Lib Murray looks to have held off original StealthCon Meredith in VanQuadra - SteveO now exhaling?...Dipper Davies over 50% in VanKingsway - approaching LibbyD. numbers, which is amazing given the rapid change in demographics to the wealthy in that riding...

9:28pm...Weird to see all that blue in urban Vancouver and Orange in Suburban Burnaby/Surrey...This is a big story is it not -how many SecretCons there were in cities, including formerly LibFortress Toronto?

9:23pm...Esquimalt's Dipper Garrison pulling away....The power of Project Democracy's riding-specific poll late last week which aided the lay-off Strat by former K Martin voters?

9:20pm...WestVanSunshine going Con because of total lack of Strat + the mild Dipper Surge...My tongue just came out of cheek re: Ujji jumping on Green bandwagon - he says he's done with the game...Nationally, JTrudeau rumour mongering has already begun.

9:15pm....Now only one percent separating RedHedy and CremeConClarke...Garrison still leading EsquimaltJuannie thanks to DipperSurge and LibStrat...DipperSimms hangin' on in Newton, looks like pure Surge in 3 way race...Same for Dipper Sandu over DonaCon in Surrey North

9:12pm...Lib Ujjal Dosanjh is done in VanSouth....Will he join Greens now?...EMay now declaring victory in Saanich...

9:o2pm....Despite great Strat in Nanaimo-Alberni where Greens and Libs layed off bigtime it looks like it won't be enough for DipperMaartman to beat old RefoConLunney who has hit 45%-40 at moment with half the poll in...Don't know that riding well enough to know if there are serious Central Port vs. Valley splits that could result in a swing down the line...VanIsleNorth is absolute nail biter that seems to swing from Dipper to Con with each poll that comes in.

9:00pm...Minister of HockeyRinks and Roundabouts going down, bad to Strat-assisted EMay in Saanich...Hedy Fry is in big, big trouble to CremeConClarke in VanCtre due to lack of StratVoting...

8:58pm....Dipper Surges that have not been enough even though there was clearly a Strat-Assist...Kamloops and Kootney Columbia where the SecretConSociety are giving their fearless leader-bots ~50% each.

8:55pm....Dipper Leonard holding on in straight-up Strat-assisted battle in VanIsle North....Holy crap!....Dipper Simms now surging in NewtonNDelta!!!...That, I believe is #10 of those we called....In old news National Con numbers have fallen to just below 40%....Hmmmn.... at 165 projected seats that means that ticket-splitting has mattered.

8:50pm....It's beginning to look like Ujji might be done....Is VanSouth voting in a new blue lemon to pair up with NGrewal who is looks to be hanging on in Fleetwood?

8:46pm....Esquimalt just swung Surge&Strat Dipper!...Did they just count Mom&Dad's votes?...Good on those Libs who once went to Dr. Keith for laying off the Con...

8:45pm....RedHedy and CremeConClarke now only 3% apart....Crap!...How do you all you Greeniacs, way back but sucking votes like stink feel now? Dipper surge isn't helping...What will Phill-O think if this thing goes to she who did not have his back?

8:42pm....Dipper Elkins keeping things close (and scary) in VanQuadra; original StealthConMeredith thus still within a couple of points of EarthWind&FireLibMurray; I'm tellin' you a couple of those new condotowers south south of 16th and Wesbrook could sink Ms. Murray - how will SteveO feel then?

8:35pm....Dipper Garrison starting to close on Con DeSouza a little in EsquimaltJuannie - must have been a couple of central close to Johnson&BayBridge polls come in...Strat now on in VanKingsway - Dipper Davies crushing, over 50%....Strat full on in SaanichGulfEye - Green May now up 10% of Minister of RoundAbout - Dippers and Libs really, really laying off (less than 20% total).

8:27pm....WestVanSunshine....This is another one where the Dippers who did not Strat may just elect a Con...Looks same in Van South - Bill Tieleman must have had some internal poll numbers in his back pocket when he said as much, obliquely on SLeslie show yesterday....Will of people or first-past-the-stupid-post?

8:25pm...DipperDonnelly is in tough, almost straight-up, to ConDilworth in NewWestCoq...Again, one can only surmise that there is this weird SecretConSociety walking amongst us...

8:19pm...VanCtre, CremeCon now sniffing at Hedy's heels...Long shot that some deep Green vote pocket South bridge could swing it Blue there?

8:15pm...VanIsleNorth see-sawing....It's all Strat Up there absolutely nothing going to either Lib or Green....Con v Dipper, straight up....If only more had done same including Esquimalt which looks scary Con over Dipper with Lib/Green suck-away significant so far....

8:07pm...First VanCtre HeddyRed then saw off for all three including Green Carr so far...Saanich - A little light between Green-May over Con-Roundabout

8:05...VanSouth...Flipping DosanjhLIB v. CONWong....Here it looks like Dipper surge is sucking votes from Ujji.

8:03pm...So far Dipper surge looks to be mostly holding...VIsleNorth...Burnaby...SurreyNorth...NanaimoAlberni...

7:59....First EsqJuanDeFuca strong Con...but this riding very, very poll-dependent.

7:58....First Saanich polls to May.

7:56pm...Libs being hammered in Vancouver....Early Kingsway Con over Dipper Davies...If Greens and Libs didn't strat they will wear it....Nothing from VanCtre yet, could be same.

7:53pm...Still nothing Esquimalt or Saanich...VanIsle North going Dipper

7:51pm...There it is....CBC calls ConMajority....

7:48pm...Oh Boy....Now Con 160 leading/elected Nationwide...Unless some serious BC Riding swings due to strong Red or Orange pockets we could be done here...

7:45pm....Dippers over 100....Canada now seriously flirting with Majority Con Doom....158 leading/elected

7:43pm....Dipper Leonard has a bit of a lead on Con Duncan in VanIsleNord

7:41pm....Alright...The Cons are clearly on the cusp of majority...If they don't go solidly over 155 in the next 15 minutes the Strat will really, really count...How stupid does my call for Dippers and Libs to lay off in Saanich now?

7:40pm....Interesting....Con numbers starting to fall a little now that a few Wests starting to swing....Down to 150 elected/leading.

7:35pm....The Lotusland seats I'm watching most closely?....EsqJuanDeFuca...VanIsleNorth...SurreyNorth...SaanichGulfIsles

7:35pm....Cons elected/leading 154....Sheesh...Secret Cons everywhere among us?

7:30pmPacific...Cons elected/leading in 147 now according to ECanada....very, very, very scary.

7:25pmPacific...First Lotusland riding posted on E-Canada....

7:20pmPacific....Cons leading/elected 137 including all 21 Alberta already, so I'm starting to exhale....But only slightly.....

7:15pmPacific....OrangeCrush in Quebec leading in 35....So, if Cons held to minority it really does look like Dipper opposition....

7:05pmPacific....First national news....Cons elected/leading in 131 Nationally, BlueDeath in Ontario...Lib FortressTO breached due to vote splitting....All with NO BC numbers yet....How important does the Strat seem now? We can, in my opinion, only hope.

.