Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Lotuslandian Strategic Voting....How It Works, Pt 1.


Well, it's just seven days to go until the General.

Which means it's time to kick off Strategic Voting Week here in Lotusland*.

How could this Strat-Voting thing actually work?

Well, we are going to show you with the next few posts.

And then, later in the week we will make comprehensive recommendations for those ridings where it does really matter (and those where it doesn't too, so that you can let your conscience run wild).

So, for our first primer, we're going to have a look at the riding of Vancouver Island North.

Here is our Strat-Vote recommendation from 2008:

Vancouver Island North - Vote Split Alert!!!!.....Greeniac Stone is a solid third but, like Liberal Fleischer, can NOT win.....Con Duncan is very, very close and/or maybe even slightly ahead.....Thus, please, please, please, do not hand one to Harper here..... to Stop The Con go with the Dipper Bell.

And here is what actually happened:

Canadian federal election, 2008
ConservativeJohn Duncan26,16645.78%+5.17%$76,173
New DemocratCatherine J. Bell23,68141.43%-0.29%$80,622
GreenPhilip Stone4,5637.98%+3.14%$12,309
LiberalGeoff Fleischer2,3914.18%-8.65%$2,026
IndependentJason Draper3610.63%--
Total valid votes/Expense limit100.00%$109,871
Conservative gain from New Democratic PartySwing+2.73

Now, to give the folks of the North Island their due, many of them did their best to Strat-Vote last time out because there was a big drop in Lib support from 2006. The trouble was, some of that soft Liberal vote actually went Con. And there was a Green gain as well, which tipped the balance that gave it to the Con.

So here's the thing....If you live in Courtenay, Comox, Campbell River, or Alert Bay and you don't want to be ruled by Harpies for the next 4 years, if you vote Green or Lib you are helping to doom yourself to it.

The choice here is stark because neither the Greeniac nor the Lib have a hope in heckfire of reaching 10%.

And that is how Stat Voting works.


*Now, for my Dipper friends who are bound to give me a hard time for deciding to once again go down the Strat-Vote Road given big Jack's 'surge', please note that I have started with one that is designed to help an NDP candidate. Obviously, future examples and recommendations will involve taking away Dipper votes. My half-a-mamma-mea-culpa rationale for doing so can be found here.



paul said...

Very useful. Looking forward to thoughts on Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, my riding.

RossK said...


Oh boy.

That's one that is going to require 'surge' tracking over the next few days to see how much of that old KMartin red has turned orange.