Stopping All Cons: A Comprehensive Guide To Strategic Surge Voting In British Columbia

AllTheSmartVotesThatFit

GovernorGeneralVille

Final Dispatch 9:00pm Sunday May 1st: This is it....All the specific details, with explanations, can be found below...The short story is that 18 seats are ripe for Strategic Con-Stopping in BC if the 50% of NDP and Liberal supporters that are willing to switch their vote actually do so...Please remember - 50% of Liberal and NDP supporters together represent essentially ALL the Con vote which means that they can do absolutely anything they put their collective mind and effort to Monday...For example, if folks in Ontario and Quebec get smart and stop the Con Majority first, we in Lotusland can actually put an end to Mr. Harper's rule forever (thanks to the good Reverand for that very fine last minute thought!)...Now, for those progressive Dippers in B.C. who think this is all crazy, silly and counter-productive,please understand that even Carole James' former Chief-Of-Staff sees the real-politick merit in 17 of the 18 choices on the list below.... OK?

Surging Dippers (Do Not Vote Lib or Green - they cannot win)

1) Fleetwood Pt Kells - Fernando, NDP

2) Newton N. Delta - Simms, NDP

3) Surrey North - Sandu

4) Pitt Meadow-Maple Ridge - Speirs, NDP

5) Burnaby-Douglas - Stewart, NDP

6) Van Kingsway - D.Davies, NDP

7) Kamloops-Thompson - Crawford, NDP

8) Kootenay-Columbia - Shmigelsky, NDP

9) Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - Garrison, NDP

10) Nanaimo-Alberni - Maartman, NDP

11) Van Isle - North - Leonard, NDP

Strategic Liberals (Do Not Vote Dipper or Green, they cannot win)

12) Richmond - Peschisolido, Liberal

13) North Van - Noormohamed, Liberal

14) Van Centre - Fry, Liberal

15) Van Quadra - Murray, Liberal

16) Van South - Dosanjh, Liberal

17) West Van-Sunshine - Veniez, Liberal

Strategic Green (sorry true progressives, but neither the Dipper nor Lib can win)

18) Saanich Gulf-Islands - Elizabeth May, Green

*Please note, it is this one that the former CJames Chief-of-Staff, Ian Reid, does not agree with us on, not because he doesn't agree about the numbers, but because he just believes it is a longterm political mistake to do so.

Final Note: All the Other Seats in B.C are locks be they Dipper or Con, so you are free to do whatever you want...I must note, however, that commenters have made a reasonably persuasive case that the NDP candidates in the two Con-Lock Prince George seats and the Con-Lock Abbotsford seat may be surging into way, way, way longshot contention that would be greatly aided by heavy Strategic voting.

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THE LONG-FORM OF THE SURGE/STRAT RECOMMENDATIONS IS BELOW

So - this is it.

We've looked at a whole lot of numbers, polls, projections and recommendations, especially from the fine folks over at ProjectDemocracy.ca.....

And we have come to the conclusion that British Columbia's progressive voters can have their Surge and, when required, vote Strategially too, to drive the Stephen Harper-led Tory/Conservative/Alliance/Reform/Whack-A-Doodle Coalition to the bottom of the deep blue minority sea where it belongs.

Please, by all means feel free to Wurlitzer this thing far and wide (small URL to paste in Emails is: http://bit.ly/ihqIo1 ). As we said before, the stakes are just too high to let the politics of destruction, division and voter suppression destroy our country - OK?

We have three categories:

SURGE - these are the ridings where the NDP 'surge' in popularity over the last week looks to be putting the Dipper over the top (or at the very least in real contention), which means that small 'l' liberals, and maybe even red tories, should take note here to lay off their party's candidate.

STRAT - here is where the Dipper cannot win, and where both Dipper and/or Green Votes could defeat the Con if they are supplied to Lib....Many real progressives hate this... But I am of the opinion that we are forced to do this because of our ridiculous first-past-the-post system and the gravity of the situation.

LOCK- here, no matter what you do the winner has already been decided so you can do whatever the heck you like.

Oh - and one last thing....Except for Saanich Gulf Islands and the Locks, you are most definitely/positively WASTING a chance to stop a Con if you vote Green in any other riding, especially VanCentre (sorry A.Carr) - OK?

Here we go.....

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SOUTH OF FRASER & THE VALLEY

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Fleetwood-Port Kells: The incumbent just may be the worst Con MP West of Cornerbrook which is, of course, N. Grewal. Believe it or not, the surge now has the Dipper Fernando in 2nd and rising...So, while it's a long shot, the only chance looks to be to lay off the Lib Dhanoa and the Greeniac Saldanha who looks to be holding a few thousand votes that could help put the Surge over the top to Stop the Con.....Recommendation: Nao Fernando-NDP.

Newton-North Delta: OK, this is one of those ridings where the Surge really matters (and where proMedia reports that were based on polls from early-to-mid-last week are likely wrong). Thus, the small 'l''s and the RedT's should seriously think of laying off their Lib incumbent Dhaliwhal because the surge looks to have pushed the rising Dipper Sims into the lead of a tight three-way race that includes the Con Fallon. This is another one where the doomed Green vote of 3K could also be a big factor if it would just get real/really progressive to help Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Jinny Sims-NDP (seriously)

Surrey North: A real Surge success story has vaulted the Dipper Sandhu over the Con Cadman. Make no mistake red-folk, the Lib can NOT win here. Go with the surge to stop the Con Cadman.....Recommendation: Jasbir Sandhu-NDP

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: You won't find this one amongst the possible 'swing' ridings from the proMedia folks, but it looks like the surge has the Dipper Speirs within striking distance of the Con Kamp. However, there aren't a lot of Lib votes to be found here so the Greeniacs really, really have to go with the Surge to Stop the Con here....Recommendation: Craig Speirs-NDP.

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

Richmond: It's a real long shot for the Lib Peschisolido to beat the Con Wong here. But make no mistake, the Dipper Jackaman and the Green Wolfe have no chance - but they do have enough ballots to Stop the Con if their supporters vote strategically....Recommendation: Joe Peschisolido-Liberal

CON-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Abbotsford: Con Ed (notso)Fast there fella is a lock.

Chilliwack-FraserCanyon-Hope: Ditto Chuck Strahl's Con-Son Mark.

Delta-Richmond East: John Cummins old riding still a Con-Lock for K-L Findlay

Langley: Mark Warwara (and/or the cardboard version of that Jared guy from Subway) in a Con-Lock.

South Surrey-Whiterock-Cloverdale: Uber-lock for Con Hiebert.

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VANCOUVER/LOWER MAINLAND NORTH

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Burnaby Douglas: Retired Dipper Bill Siksay just managed to beat the Con Leung by 800 votes last time out. This time, in the last week, new Dipper Kennedy Stewart the PoliSci guy looks to have opened up a surge-assisted lead of a few thousand over the Con.....Recommendation: Kennedy Stewart - NDP

Vancouver Kingsway: The surge has really aided the incumbent Dipper Davies. So why don't I have him in a lock here? Well, I live in this riding and the rising property values, not to mention the associated increase in European SUV's all over the streets, really scares me - luckily the non-Prog vote is reasonably well-split between the Con and Lib. But look, there is some Green strength in this riding that could be a real spoiler if folks don't realize that to stop the Con you have to go with the surging Dipper.....Recommendation: Don Davies-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

North Vancouver: It's neck and neck between the Con Saxton and the Lib Noormohamed. The Dippers and Greens have no chance, but together they do have 5 times the votes needed to beat the Con. Make no mistake, strategic voting can win this riding. Therefore, if you want to stop Stephen Harper you MUST lay off the NDP and the Greeniac and vote Liberal in this one..... Recommendation: Noormohamed - Liberal

Vancouver Centre: Even with the surge, Dipper Shillington is just too far back and, because the Green Adrienne Carr is potentially 7,000 votes strong also, you must not choose either to make sure the Creme de la Creme's Head Girl, Con Jennifer Clarke, does not wiggle up the middle to beat Dr. Fry..... Recommendation: Hedy Fry - Liberal.

Vancouver Quadra: The Harpie here is British Columbia's original 'Stealth' Con, Deborah Meredith. And while she came very, very close to former provincial Lib 'Earth, Wind and Fire' Minister Joyce Murray in the 2008 Bye-Bye, the StealthCon faded a bit in the last general when all the old money, small 'l' Libs started paying attention. Still, rumour has it that huge Con $$ have gone into this riding and, make no mistake, neither the Dipper Elkins or the Greeniac Shaw can come close....Recommendation Joyce Murray-Liberal.

Vancouver South: The Lib, Ujjal Dosanjh, was in real trouble here to the Con in 2008. However, a number of real and seriously troubling gaffes by the Con Young have given Dosanjh a wee bit of breathing room this time around. Regardless, this is another one where, even with the surge, the Dipper cannot win. Thus, to be absolutely sure you will help stop the Con you must vote strategically here (even if you, like me, hold Ujji partially responsible for the disaster we still have provincially 10 years after he jumped ship). Recommendation: Ujjal Dosanjh-Liberal

West Van-Sunshine Coast: Sorry folks, but only the Lib Veniez has a shot at the Con Weston. And here's the thing - the Strat matters here because there really are more than enough potential Dipper votes that could be used to instead beat the Harpie. So, if you wanna stop the Con this is one riding where you have to turn your back on the surge, take a deep breath, and lay off the Dipper (and you Greens do the same - vote grabber BWilson is not running this time, but you still have up to 3000 ballots to deliver here, OK).....Recommendation: Daniel Veniez-Liberal

LOCK (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Burnaby-New Westminster: Dipper Peter Julian is a lock, with almost double the nearest candidate who is the Con.

NewWestminster-Coquitlam: Dipper Fin Donnelly, who first took Dawn Black's old seat in a Bye-Bye, is crushing all comers, so much so that there aren't enough Greens and Libs put together to get the 2nd place Con Dilworth even halfway there.

Vancouver East: Once again, East Van Halen is a lock for Dipper Libby Davies

Port Moody-Westwood-PoCo: Con Moore in a lock....Uggggh, especially folks with autism....Dipper Ireland in solid second, but way behind, even with the surge.

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INTERIOR/NORTH

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Surge has Dipper Crawford right there with the Con, and there are more than enough Lib and Green votes there to Stop the latter in their tracks....Recommendation: Michael Crawford - NDP

Kootenay-Columbia: Incumbent Con Abbott has left the building. There has been a surge, and Tony Martinsen, who knows his numbers, thinks the Dipper Shimelgsky has a shot there. The thing is, all I've seen, hard numbers-wise, so far is a greater than 10K lead for the Con Wilks. Thus, with only 6-8K Lib/Green votes combined it means that all non-Dippers who want to stop the Con have to lay off and let the surge take over to push this long shot, which I originally had in a Con-Lock, over the top.....Recommendation: Mark Shmigelsky-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

None...Nada.....Libs are essentially persona non-grata....Look what the Provincial LINO's have wrought....

LOCK (Vote As You Wish as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Southern Interior: Surge has Atamenanko safe (we think; this one might get moved up if it looks problematic - thing is, there aren't many non-Con votes to pick up.

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: It's like Berkeley North up there for Dipper N.Cullen (which is a good thing)

Cariboo-Prince George: ConLock

Prince George-Peace River: ConLock even without incumbent - sorry.

Kelowna-Lake Country (they've seceded already?): ConLock

Okanagan Times Two: Both are grape-soaked Con-Locks, unfortunately.

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VANCOUVER ISLAND

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca: This is the former seat of multi-party member Keith Martin, most recently a Lib, but it even went Reform with him back in the day...It was assumed that it would be the Lib Szpak that would chase the Con DeSouza who lost to Dr. Martin by a whisker in 2008. But then the good folks at Project Democracy commissioned a riding-specific poll by Oracle and it confirmed a massive surge that has the Dipper Garrison as in solid second and the only chance by quite a large margin to beat the Con. Thus, you have to lay off the Lib here to help kick the Blue Scourge off the Island completely.....Recommendation: Randall Garrison-NDP.

Nanaimo-Alberni: This is a bizarre, old labour riding that drifted populist Reform with longterm Con incumbent Lunney. But, maybe even more so than in Esquimalt described above, the crushing Orange Surge has the Dipper Maartman in serious striking range. No one else is within 15,000 votes of Lunney, so lay off them and go with the Dipper to Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Zenaida Maartman-NDP

Van Isle North: This is a see-saw between the Dipper Leonard and the incumbent Con Duncan. The important thing here is that there are essentially no Lib votes to get, although there are a few thousand leaning Green. Looks like it may come down to the Green rump and, perhaps more importantly a strong GOTV effort by the NDP in Comox/Courtenay/Campbell River to take fullest advantage of the surge .....Recommendation: Ronna-Rae Leonard-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold, And Maybe Even Blow, Your Nose To Stop The Con):

Saanich Gulf Islands: This one pains me, but really and truly, neither the Dipper Loring-Kuhanga nor the Lib Hetherington have any shot to beat the Minister for Hockey Rinks and Roundabouts (but never, ever RoboCalls), Gary Lunn. Thus, if you want to stop the Con this is the one place where progressives must vote Green. For me, it's short term pain for potential longterm gain....Recommendation: Elizabeth May Green

NDP-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Nanaimo-Cowichan: Dipper is runaway a lock.

Victoria: Dipper Savioe is widening her signficant lead, and it drives the upper crust of Uplands crazy...Ha!

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The following are all the Updates from earlier on Sunday, newest first back to oldest...it's mostly real inside baseball:

Updates: Sun 7:30pm - Darn...Somehow I disappeared VanIsle- sorry...It's Dipper Surge in VanIsle North, Nanaimo-Alberni and Esquimalt Juan de Fuca with Green May in Saanich and Isles...Will fix later... Sun 7pm- Lots of great input from readers. Travis F.and Tony M tell us there is some on the ground reports of Dipper support seriously rising in Abbotsford and the two Prince George ridings. While I still can't take 'em out of Con-Lock-Land it is worth considering to go all in NDP in all of those ridings given that no one else has a hope in heckfire. Old friend Spartikus points us back to a Mike Watkins post that there are Lib internals in Van Centre which say that Green A.Carr has a shot there, which is fair enough, but I just do not see the externals no matter how much A.Coyne wants it to be.... Sun 3:00pm- Incredible numbers from Angus Reid, via Project Democracy, that 50% of declared Liberal and Dipper supporters, combined, are willing to consider Strat Voting to protect the Surge and Stop Cons...That could really lead to huge riding-specific swings that is NOT in most standard polling done previously.Wow......Sun 2:00pm - And now welcome to Bigger E's Facebook friends - if you want to Stop the Cons in VanQuadra and VanCentre you have to lay off the Dippers and Greens and hold your nose while voting Liberal...VKingsway and VSouth are a little different - details below...Of course, EastVanHalen is still a lock for DipperDavies....Sun 1:30pm-Welcome folks arriving from VSun, every single riding in B.C. is subjected to our (not-so)patented Surge/Strat/Lock analysis below....1pm Sun - ElectionPrediction Project is now with us, picking surging Dipper Sandu over Con Cadman in Surrey North, so please, do the best of your abilities, lay off Lib&Green...Noon Sun - The venerable 'Bouquets of Gray' has put together a similar Surge and Strat Guide To Con-Stopping for the good folks of Ontario, here... 10am Sun - Election Prediction Project now calling Esq Juan de Fuca for Dipper Garrison. Regardless, you must lay off Liberal AND Green there to Stop the Con as we point out below...And for those in the Kootenay-Columbia we have now moved you out of Con-Lock-Land and into longshot SurgeVille for the Dipper Shmigelsky, which means that you must all lay-off anything but Orange to stop a Con, OK?... 9am Sun - Old friend Holly S. points out that checking out where the 3rd party Ads are going could give folks an idea about where the Cons figure they are in trouble in Lotusland and VanIsle...Travis F makes a good case that we may have underestimated the potential for the youth vote to assist the surge (just hope it doesn't drift Green anywhere by Saanich/UVIC and the Isles)....8am Sun - fixed the Kootenay-Columbia call (thanks Tony M.), put it in long-shot SurgeVille...

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