In British Columbia 45% Wins, And Wins Often.

NoLeaderNoProblem
1952Ville


If you have been perusing British Columbia's punditland since Election Day you will have often read about how poorly David Eby did and how lucky he is to still be Premier.

Case in point, the following from Rob Shaw writing in various and sundry Glacier Media print organs:

Imagine attending your own funeral when suddenly — miraculously and inexplicably — you jolt back upright amongst the living. That’s a bit like being a BC New Democrat these days. The party lost its majority government on election day, faced the prospect of either being out of office entirely or grovelling to the two BC Greens for votes, and then abruptly regained its lifeline in Monday’s final count process to emerge with its majority intact...

{snip}

 ...More than half the voters did not support Eby or the BC NDP in the election. He lost numerous ridings and cabinet ministers. The province is badly divided after a brutal election. Is he the premier to bridge the growing gap between rural and urban B.C.?...

But did Eby really do so poorly with voters, overall, compared to previous BC NDP winners?

Well.

Rather than just prattling on with further fuzzy and thoroughly non-productive pundit parrot talk, why don't we have a look at the actual  numbers...

1972 - Dave Barrett's NDP wins a solid majority with 39% of the popular vote. WAC Bennett's Socred's lost when they only garnered 31% of the vote due, at least part, to the siphoning of 19% by David Anderson's Liberals.

1991 - Mike Harcourt's NDP wins an overwhelming majority with 41% of the popular vote. Rita Johnson's Socred's reach the end of the road when they get only 24% thanks in large part to the 33% garnered by Gordon Wilson's Liberals.

1996 - Glen Clark's NDP wins a close one, with a majority, due to the efficiency of the Dipper's 39% of the popular vote. Gordon Campbell's re-branded Liberals garner 42% of the vote and lose, given that Jack Weisberger's one-hit Reform wonder likely swiped more of their 9% share of the vote from the Liberals than Gordon Wilson's flash-in-the-pan PDA swiped from the NDP to garner their measly 6% vote share.

2017 - John Horgan's NDP forms a minority government with 40% of the popular vote together with Andrew Weaver's Greens, who hit their high water mark at 17%. Christy Clark's Liberals, who actually won the most seats, were ultimately the big losers despite the fact that they also garnered 40% of the vote.

2020 - The big one. Horgan 2.0 wins a massive, Harcourt-like NDP majority with 48% of the popular vote. Andrew Wilkinson's Liberals garner 34% and Furstenau's Greens slide slightly to 15%.

2024 - David Eby's NDP wins his squeaker majority with 45% of the popular vote. John Rustad's Conservatives lose with 43% of the vote as Furstenau's Greens wither down to 8%.

My point?

David Eby just won a greater share of the popular vote than any other BC NDP premier in history except for John Horgan 2.0.

As for the crack, bolded above, from Mr. Shaw about how poorly Eby did because 'more than half' of British Columbians did not support him?

If you go all the way back to 1952 only one BC Premier, ever, won a majority of the popular vote.

And that was Gordon Campbell in the most unusual, and exceptional, clock-cleaning that was 2001. 

To be absolutely clear here, this includes Wacky Bennett, who did not top 50% in very single one of his six majority wins in a row that spanned from 1953 to 1969.

Interestingly, in every single one of his victories and that includes his party's pre-majority minority win in 1952, Wacky was greatly assisted by vote splitting, most often due to a significant percentage of folks pulling the lever for the Liberals.

So...

Stick that in your puffed-up pundit pipe and smoke it!



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It turns out that, in that 1952 election, the Socreds formed their minority government, with 30% of the vote, when they made WAC their leader AFTER the election. Just imagine how different this province might be today if the CCF, then led by Harold Winch, pictured above, third from right, who won 34% of the vote, had not been ambushed by Liberal leader 'Boss' Johnson's preferential vote machinations that year.


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