DisagreementsAbound
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I really enjoy reading Evan Scrimshaw's stuff.
His heart is in the right place and he is hard-headed when it comes to thinking about what it takes for realistic progressives to win and do the right thing after they do.
But on this very recent take I think the good Mr. Scrimshaw is off base:
...Out in BC, the Greens are having a leadership contest - a topic, admittedly, that wouldn’t usually warrant a column. But, with David Eby having the slimmest of majorities and neither of the Greens MLAs running for the job, it’s an opening for Eby, if he wants to follow in John Horgan’s footsteps and ratfuck the next Green leader. In 2020, Horgan called the election for the same week the Greens elected Sonia Furstenau leader, depriving her of any time to bed in before the election. If Horgan’s act is repeated, a fall election would be on the cards - especially given Eby waited last time, and nearly lost for it, he’d be smart to go early...
Now.
I'm not opposed to the idea of the BC NDP taking us back to the polls early on principle, particularly if it's done because there is a realistic possibility of pushing the Whackaloonian Party back into the political, if not the literal, wilderness.
However, the idea that it can be done by capitalizing on yet another slide in Green support is just not realistic.
Because we are no longer talking about Andrew Weaver's, or even Sonia Furstenau v1.0's, BC Greens taking 15% or more of the popular vote.
However, the idea that it can be done by capitalizing on yet another slide in Green support is just not realistic.
Because we are no longer talking about Andrew Weaver's, or even Sonia Furstenau v1.0's, BC Greens taking 15% or more of the popular vote.
Instead, last fall Furstenau v2.0 garnered a measly 7%. In other words, there is nothing for Eby to pick up there. And, to get riding specific, if the one Green seat at play (i.e. West Van Sea-To-Ski) were to flip it is actually more likely to go Whackaloonian than Dipper.
And then there is the following, also from Mr. Scrimshaw:
And then there is the following, also from Mr. Scrimshaw:
...(M)ost of all, (the) fact that the Greens could be about to elect a genuine f*cking lunatic also makes the case pretty well for an early election.Emily Lowan is, to be quite blunt, the worst serious candidate to lead a party with actual elected officials in my lifetime. She is a dream to the NDP, because if the Greens are stupid enough to pick her as leader she will lead the party off the cliff......Her platform is best described as a fever dream for the worst of the Left - people who plainly have not realized that this isn’t 2018 anymore and that the issue set has changed...
Which is fine, as far as it goes.
But consider this...
There are quite a few disaffected left-sided Dipperian voters 'round here, including some readers of this little F-Troop-list blog, that are not happy with some of the more 'pragmatic' policies of Mr. Eby's government.
Thus, a chunk of those folks are starting to look for a place to go that is not coloured orange.
And if a few percent of them go with a more left-leaning provincial Green Party, well, there are a lot of ridings that the Dippers saved from Whackaloonianism by the skin of our collective teeth in 2024 (see Surrey-Guildford numbers at the top of the post for example) that could go the way of lifestyle shaming, book burning, absolutist austeritical lunacy next time around.
But consider this...
There are quite a few disaffected left-sided Dipperian voters 'round here, including some readers of this little F-Troop-list blog, that are not happy with some of the more 'pragmatic' policies of Mr. Eby's government.
Thus, a chunk of those folks are starting to look for a place to go that is not coloured orange.
And if a few percent of them go with a more left-leaning provincial Green Party, well, there are a lot of ridings that the Dippers saved from Whackaloonianism by the skin of our collective teeth in 2024 (see Surrey-Guildford numbers at the top of the post for example) that could go the way of lifestyle shaming, book burning, absolutist austeritical lunacy next time around.
OK?
.
4 comments:
Agreed.
Ah yes, will Eby go for a fall election?
Not a chance in hell.
Remember, Eby and his Vison(less) Vancouver Provincial Party or the VVPP barely won an election against Rustad's Maple MAGA, anti-science, anti-VAX, evangelicals and an election this fall would be a big mistake.
Why?
Eby has done absolutely nothing of note.
The Metro Vancouver/TransLink scandals are becoming more than toxic with voters. The FIFA Games, is again becoming a major fiscal scandal that is also becoming more than toxic.
The "Hurtlands" remain the hurtlands as Eby and the NDP have done zero to mend fences.
The E&N is another pustular sore as well as CNR abandoning a section of the old PGE/BC Rail which signals the "Hurtlands" that the NDP do not care, especially when they have pored $10 billion into the #1 highway rebuild and a massive $16 billion to extend the Expo and Millennium Lines a mere 16 km.
Housing is another toxic issue as all the NDP are doing is glad handing towers, towers towers, yet about 3,000 condos in those towers remain unsold and uninhabited.
Education and healthcare, both traditionally sacrificed to fund the NDP's SkyTrain largess, may also factor in an election.
That being said, Eby's late to the game response to Trump's war against Canada has been duly noted by many.
As for the Greens, they are only the Green party in name and that is about it and have become a repository for those who seek public office but no other politcal party will have them.
The problem for Eby's VVPP is that Rustad has dumped the anti this and that folks from the party and more reasoned and candidates will emerge; with the NDP can only muster yesterday's worn out retreads, such as Farnsworth and a few others.
The big problem for the NDP is that he lacks any sort of imagination or original thought and the party itself cannot see 20 minutes into the future.
If an election were to be held this fall, Eby's VVPP would lose by around 10 seats.
I forgot to mention the BC Ferries/Chinese debacle is also right up their acting as an anchor to any NDP relelection plans and another one and this was brought home full force yesterday by an acquaintance, who due to no fault of her own, was in an auto accident and has come out of it thousands of dollars out of pocket with no recourse in suing the person who caused it.
ICBC has fobbed her off completely and now she belongs to an growing informal group looking at how to bring a class action lawsuit against ICBC or even the NDP!
The mainstream media has all but ignored the growing discontent in this province with Eby's NDP, but it seems to me a silent majority may hold their collective noses and vote for Rustand in the next election.
Living just outside the boundaries of Lotus Land proper, Eby is fast becoming radio active and just maybe a palace revolt is in order. His politcal deafness is deafening!
very well put, EE!
Eby and company seem to lack any vision and, perhaps look back to Tommy Douglas ideals to try to get their shit together.
The greens are and also have been a farce with few workable ideas. Once in awhile I meet someone that claims to vote green like they are virtue signaling. Bloody idiots!
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