This Day In Snookland...That 308.com, We Never Really Liked It Anyway.

TrackRecordsMatter
ActuallyCrunchingNumbersVille


308.com's Eric Grenier, who does NOT base his analysis on single snapshot polls, and who does a pretty darned good Nate Silver impersonation, has updated his projections for the upcoming (still?) provincial election here in BC.

The upshot?

Well, to put it mildly, Mr. Grenier does not agree with either CKNW or Michael Smyth, whose superficial shark-jumping analyses we took issue with yesterday.

Here's Grenier's lede:

The probability of the B.C. New Democrats winning the popular vote and, quite likely, the election on May 14 has increased from 91.7% to 94.6%, despite the B.C. Liberals making important gains in the B.C. Interior and North.

With the release of a new poll by Angus-Reid, thevote and seat forecasts for the upcoming British Columbia election have been updated. As of Jan. 18, the last day that Angus-Reid was in the field, the NDP is projected to win between 45 and 74 seats, with the most likely outcome being 57 seats. The B.C. Liberals are projected to win between nine and 40 seats, with 27 seats being the most likely result. If an election were held today, the New Democrats would have a 96.4% chance of winning it.

Since the last projection, which was based on polling data as of Nov. 30, the New Democrats have dropped 0.7 points to 47.8% support, while the Liberals have dropped 0.9 points to 32.2%. The B.C. Conservatives have hardly budged, down 0.1 point to 10.4%, while the B.C. Greens are up 1.7 points to 7.8%....


Go read it all because, you know...

Pushback.

(and watch for Mr. Grenier's stuff to come up over on the left in the blog crawl)


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And remember how, as election day approached last fall, Mr. Silver was subjected to an outright smear campaign from certain operatives down south?....You think it can't happen here?

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The Lotuslandian Pro-Media 'Analysis' Of The Angus Reid Poll...

...Mr. Smyth Goes To Neg-Mo.

This morning we dug deep into the latest Angus Reid poll to demonstrate that Christy Clark is still in big, big trouble on all fronts, because:

1) Her party's upward tick has nowhere to go now that her operatives and/or their plumbers have destroyed the BC Conservative Party

2) The support for the Dippers has not dipped over the last 12 months

3) She is getting her gong banged in every significant demo save one - rich people.

4) She has 'momentum' rating of minus thirty-two (yes, that's minus, as in 'negative' 32)

Then, early this afternoon, based on a comment from one of our regular readers, 'Lew', we wondered if the local punditry would soon go all superficial and instead go the other way....

Well...

It turns out that at least one of those pundits, Mr. Michael Smyth (backed by a more than willing Header writer), has taken the bait and jumped the super(ficial)-shark.

First, here is the header:

B.C. Liberal ads are working, so you’ll keep seeing them

Poll shows Christy Clark’s party is gaining on the NDP

Next, here is Mr. Smyth's lede under said header:

Want to know why the Christy Clark government is spending $15 million of taxpayers’ money on feel-good TV commercials, despite the withering criticism they take for doing it?

Want to know why Clark’s Liberals slime NDP leader Adrian Dix with brutal attack ads, when most people claim they’re sick and tired of nasty, personal politics?

Because it all works, that’s why. Just check the latest polls.

The newest Angus Reid survey shows Clark’s Liberals slowly but surely gaining on Dix’s NDP. The new poll pegs Liberal support at 31 per cent, their best showing in more than a year.

The NDP, meanwhile, dropped one point to 46 per cent.

That’s still a hefty 15-point advantage for the NDP, big enough for a solid majority if the lead holds up till the May 14 election.

But big leads rarely hold up in B.C. politics. It always gets closer. And the numbers are moving in Christy Clark’s direction...


And why don't big leads hold in BC Politics, Mr Smyth?

Huh?

I mean, seriously, can there be any greater example of why pushback, pushback based on actual in-depth analysis rather than super-sharkian codswallop about how a 1 percentage point drop in a snapshot poll with a 3.5% MoE is significant, actually matters around here?

Sheesh.


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Thanks again to Grant for the heads-up in the comments....

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This Day In Snookland (ctd)...Why The Pushback Matters.

ConventionalWisdom
IsSometimesNeitherVille


I am not a pollster.

And I am not a pol.

But even I was able to, I think, get to the bottom of the latest provincial political poll from Angus-Reid early this morning.

And clearly, the upshot of it all is that, even with the BC Conservative Party pretty much destroyed,  things still look to be very bleak for Ms. Clark et al., indeed.

And, it would seem to me, that anybody in the proMedia who is actually paying attention (and/or not a watercarrier) could not help but come to the same conclusion.

But....

As one of our regular readers, 'Lew', pointed out in the comments to our earlier post that was most definitely not the case for at least one Lotuslandian proMedia outlet:

And right on cue CKNW headlines "Liberals make some gains in latest survey". Oh boy...

It's going to be interesting to see which why this one goes over the next 24 hours as the news cycle completes its turn.


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Breaking....The Latest From Deposed LINO MLA John Slater.

AllTheSmearingThatFits
IQuitVille


First there's this:

"I can't put my fam(ily) or myself through the continual barrage of innuendos and smear which have been launched against me."

Then says he won't run as an independent.

Which kinda/sorta makes you go hmmmmmmm....

And the Dipper with profile is gone from Boundary-Similk as well?

Another hmmmmmmerrr... (see Grant's comment attached to thread)

Oh boy.


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Details via Cassidy Olivier's Twittmachine Feed....here and here.

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This Day In Snookland...The Big Neg-Mo.

TonicForTheTroops
ExtraBitterVille

I'm pretty sure that the ticker above, taken from the latest from Angus-Reid will make, as John Slater recently called them, "The grand Poohbahs in Victoria and the Children in the premier`s office" (thanks Grant!) almost kinda/maybe sorta happy.

But here's the thing...

Now that that the Cons have been destroyed,  where is any new support going to come from to raise that Red Lib/Con line any further?

Which leads us to the second chunk of data from AReid that tells, I think, the real story...

Can you see that?

Ms. Clark, the Poobahs, her Coterie of Children, and the smear merchants too, are getting their gongs banged in every single category that matters.

Every single one.

Except, of course, the well-off.

Which means, I guess, that they've really got the 'Creme de la Creme' vote going for them at least. 

Oh, and one last thing....

In the 'momentum' category Ms. Clark comes in at a whopping 32.

(on the negatronic, negative side that is)

Impressive.

Indeed.

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Of course, with that red ticker rising towards a false dawn (i.e. due purely to the destruction of the Curmudgeon - note that the orange line at the top of the graph has not budged) you could imagine how some of those still remaining  inside of the LibCon tent might be starting to whisper, even more loudly than usual, about how they could really move things if they could just tear the albatross of a massively neg-mo leader from their necks...Ha!

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South Surrey Casino Decision Causes Meltdown In Coleman Country.

What'sTheBuzz
TellUsWhat'sA(Really)Happenin'Ville


Sam Cooper, in a good bit of think ahead reporting, has the story in The Province.

Here's just a chunk:

B.C. Lottery Corp. has lost confidence in Surrey politicians and will not “waste time and money” coming to the city with new gaming proposals, says Rich Coleman, the provincial cabinet minister in charge of gaming.

Surrey council voted down a controversial $100-million mega-casino plan Saturday...

{snippety doo-dah}

...In early 2010, (Surrey mayor Dianne) Watts and two councillors voted against a “prezoning” for casinos on the site. After a public hearing though, Watts and other councillors voted for the proposal to advance, without giving final approval.

Coleman said Saturday he was disappointed with council’s vote and the whole political process involved...

{snippety doodle-dandy}

...“We met the conditions they asked us to, and the councillors still decided they didn’t want it,” he said.

Coleman said the government will not propose the gambling complex for another site in Surrey, and there are other municipalities that will likely be approached.

“We won’t have any confidence [in council’s decision-making], so we won’t waste time and money,” Coleman said...

Laila follows up with context, and hammer blows, here:

...So, what is the big problem here Rich? Why the outrage ? Did the city of Surrey rain on your parade?

Get an umbrella.

It’s a sad day when a government minister insults municipal politicians because they listened to the people who voted them into office in the first place.

They call it democracy Rich. Something your government has demonstrated, time and time again, to know little about...


Hmmmm....

Maybe Mr. Coleman should have forced the mayor to sign a letter or something before the vote?

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I sure as heckfire hope that this thing went down the way it looks from the outside (i.e. a suburban mayor whose big stage political star is still rising listens to constituents in the end)....But it's pretty hard to ignore the fact that this came to light not long before the 'final' vote...
And I wonder.... Can we expect a 'gambling is good!' (because of the tax revenue it generates) type fluffer from the CTF's man in B.C. by, say, Tuesday?

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This Day In Snookland...We Don't Need No Stinking Nominations!

WhatTheHeckDoYouThinkThisIs
ADemocracyVille


The latest BC Liberal Party 'appointment' is in Richmond Centre.

Eve Edmonds of the Richmond News has the story. Here's her lede (although the rest of the story has a lot of good context, etc.):

Gary Law is disappointed and “extremely frustrated” at how he’s been treated by the BC Liberal Party and is planning to cancel his membership to the organization. However, he’s not planning to bow out of the upcoming provincial election.

Law had put his name forward last month as a candidate seeking the Liberal nomination for Richmond Centre. However, the BC Liberal office phoned him Monday and informed him that someone else had been appointed.

“I got the call 20 minutes before they made the public announcement,” said Law at a press conference Friday.

Law learned that Teresa Wat was appointed as the Liberal candidate for the riding through the media following the announcement...




Now.

Folks with inside baseball-type knowledge may wish to tell you that Mr. Law is not the best candidate for that riding.

But, given that the BC Liberal Party is supposed to be a big tent, why don't the wizards behind the curtain let 'their' members in RCentre decide that?

****

Hey.

C'mon.

I can hear you all out there...

Stop laughing so hard.

You might hurt yourselves.


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Sunday Morning Coming Down...

FumbledThroughMyCloset
AndFoundMyCleanestDirtyShirtVille


Goofed off most of yesterday.

So, when I woke up this morning I had big plans....

And only a couple of them involved this mildly diversionary F-troop-listed blog thing.

And none of them involved six stringed things.

But then our good friend Danneau mentioned that Mr. Hansard was up over at Crooks & Liars.

So I went and watched and listened (an old bicycle 'frame' still doing its thing, indeed).

And then, as these things go, the title of this post popped into my head.

Which led me to this...

And you know what?

I've got this 'Bm/G/F#m/D' riff running through my head.

So I figure now is as good a time to try and squeeze something out of it.

Maybe even before lunch...

And by then the fog will probably have lifted...

And after that the Whackadoodle will likely need a Sunday afternoon run around...

And my fingerless gloves are just sitting right there on the table beside the bag across the subterranean blues room...

So...

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As The Herd Turns...Christy Goes To Calgary

AllTheFundraisingThatFits
TarFrackUberAllesVille


So.

As Alison points out, with the help of both Mound of Sound and Big City (not BC) Lib, it is mighty interesting that the National proMedia are suddenly falling all over each other trying to get the goods on Christy Clark's recent fundraiser with the Tarsludge Luggers in the Albertalands.

Why interesting that the members of the media herd are now chasing each others tails?

Well, because there is ample evidence that this has going on since, like...

Forever.

In fact, most ironically, it was even going on while Ms. Clark was apparently stamping her feet, flailing her fists, and allegedly threatening to never tell Alison Redford the tale of Mr. Skin during their Northern Gateway confron(o)tation last fall.

But here's something else that Alison also notes...

Calgary Frack Gas Co Encana has given her and hers more than $500,000 in the last three years alone, twice in dollops of $120,000 each.

Hmmmm....Encana?

In December 2012, in the wake of the Nexen deal, Encana flew under the radar as they did this:

CALGARY — Less than a week after Ottawa waved through CNOOC Ltd.’s $15.1-billion takeover of Nexen Inc., a different Chinese state-owned company is plowing another $2.2-billion into the Canadian oilpatch.

Natural gas giant Encana Corp. and a subsidiary of PetroChina announced Thursday they have reached a deal to work together in the Duvernay, a promising shale natural gas formation in west-central Alberta....

So...

The next time Encana gives money to Christy...

Well...

We reckon Ms. Krause and her special friends in the proMedia herd will be all over the offshore cash connection...

Right?

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The Lotuslandian Postmedia Print Organ Grinder Monkeys Keep On Using That Word...

...Commodity 'News'.

I do not think it means what that they say it means.

To wit:

From: Moriarty, Wayne (The Province)
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2013 11:37 AM
To: ProvEditorial
Subject: Province-Sun sharing


Folks,

For several months now, at the senior management level, there have been discussions between our paper and The Sun with regard to sharing more content.

The Province and The Sun have pooled resources and shared a photo department since January 2010. This eliminated duplication – those occasions when each paper dispatched photographers to the same news events, games, concerts, meetings and other assignments. The move also enabled a rationalization of assignment staffing, with one editor from each paper able to cover the department around the clock.

The papers centralized the assignment and editing functions for both newsrooms’ production of Travel, Driving, New Homes, At Home, and Recreational Properties. The Specialty Publications department works closely with advertisers to produce copy for both papers, with an office and supervision that is completely separate from the two newsrooms, and more closely allied with Advertising and the Creative departments.

For special events the two newsrooms have combined staffing in order to eliminate duplication and increase the volume of content online and in the papers, including the 2010 Olympics, and provincial and civic elections.

On Wednesday, section heads and senior management from both papers met to discuss the next step in sharing content. The three areas most affected will be city, sports and entertainment. The objective is to eliminate some duplication in areas around commodity news and event coverage. Excluded from the sharing strategy will be all enterprise reporting and reporting that either paper deems necessary to maintain its unique identity.

Section heads David Carrigg, Jonathan McDonald and Dharm Makwana have been empowered to work with their counterparts on the 8thfloor in building this limited partnership. If you have any questions or concerns, see them or see someone in senior management.


Wayne


Wayne Moriarty
Editor-in-Chief
The Province

****

Oh, ya....

And just so you know...

We have it on very good authority that, in the business (that these folks seem to be doing their best to destroy), 'commodity news' is not actually news at all.

Instead,  it is the new-fangled, weirdly appropriate term, at least at the front end, for unadulterated pablum that comes the organ grinder monkeys' way by...

...Press release.

Imagine that!



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This Day In Snookland...The Ratf*cking Continues...

...On Our Dime.

Remember when BC Liberal MLA/caucus staffers, staffers paid for by us to do government, not party work, were caught red-handed building BC Liberal Party smear sites in secret.

And remember how their boss, a BC Liberal Party government appointee who is also paid us, promised that that kind of thing would never happen again.

Well, it is happening again.

Except  that now the smearing is being done right out in the open.

'Officially'.

Which means that it has moved from BC Liberal Party servers to BC Government servers.

And I'm not kidding.

NVG, after following up on a most cryptic comment from The Dean, has the story.

...Here.


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Another (Really Important) Reason Why Mr. Doyle Must Stay!

MayTheMint400NeverRunDownPacificBlvd
AndBurrardIsNotBarstowVille


Downtown Vancouver really is not Vegas.

But it darn sure as heckfire almost was.

And it is my opinion, based on the evidence unearthed so far, that the five or six hundred million (or maybe a billion when all is said and done and the greasy cables and failing patches of magic carpet are finally fixed, not to mention all the lawsuits finally completed/settled?) we are paying for that bloody BC Place renovation when Toronto built itself a brand spanking new soccer stadium for $72 million was actually done, at the very least, to make group of finest of the fine folks from Vegas and their Gordinator the Firstian advanceman happy from the very beginning.

But never mind all that for the moment.

Because what we spent on that new roof for the old marshmallow is a huge pile of our money that we no longer have that cannot be used for things that actually matter.

So I want to know who took that money from us and how they did it.

Why?

Because I want to make sure that they cannot do it again.

Ever.

No matter how many hats they wear, or how many 'legacies' they are be posted to.

Which is why I'm very, very happy to learn that, based in large part on a letter unearthed by FOI, a process was kickstarted that has resulted in the following, as reported by a red mittenless Bob Mackin in BIV.

Here's Mr. Mackin's lede (but go read it all):

B.C. Auditor General John Doyle will take a closer look at the costs of the controversial BC Place Stadium renovation, it was revealed today.

NDP critic Spencer Chandra Herbert appealed to the government's spending watchdog in a January 11 letter for a value-for-money audit after Business in Vancouver revealed a five-year-old confidential letter from the chairman of BC Pavilion Corp. to Vancouver's city manager. That January 22, 2008, letter by David Podmore said the project would be "in the order of $100 million," including replacement of the air-supported roof.

Last August, the BC Liberal government claimed the final cost was $514 million, which included a German-engineered, spoke-and-wheel retractable roof.

"What was the original business case for this project, and why did the Liberals feel it was the best use of B.C. tax dollars?" asked Chandra Herbert in his letter. "How will the BC Liberal government recover its half-billion-dollar investment in B.C. Place, and how did this project stray so far from its original budget?"

Doyle responded in a January 16 letter, that said: "As a result of your request, we will be performing a fact-finding exercise. In the event that a satisfactory explanation is not readily forthcoming, the Auditor General may choose to do further work."...



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And who unearthed the letter that got ball really rolling?....Well, none other than our friend and compatriot in blogging and all things Rakoff and, dare I say it, Bowie....Mr. Ian Reid.


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A Conspiratorial Friday Night Noodledoodle.

AllTheCrazyStuffThatFits
WhenYou'reMindWandersVille


Bernard von Schulmann has an analysis of the legislature's projected 'sitting days' for 2013.

And his is a well-reasoned and reasonable analysis, with historical comparisons and everything. 

But I've just gotta wonder...

When some folks notice that the Ledge is supposed to sit through the projected election date.

Well...

Will they then start screaming about how that is proof-positive that Ms Clark's recent serial slip of the tongue about an election in May 2014?

Because, you know...

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

Or some such thing.

OK?


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This Day In Snookland (ctd)...The AG Committee Strikes Back!

AllTheNonLegislativePoliticsThatFit
UnderAConeOfSilenceVille


Well, well, well....

Christy Clark's latest 'wish' is not the 'Legislative Committee to Appoint An Auditor General's' command.

Cassidy Olivier, of The Province (who is banging a lot of proMedia gongs on the provincial politics beat these days), has the story (but only kinda/sorta due to all the secrecy surrounding said committee) of how no consensus was reached by the committee today to change their previous 'firing' decision. 

But here's the thing...

This time it may not be the BC Lib/Con's on the committee that is still being run, in my opinion, by a totally conflicted BC Lib/Con chairperson, who are not granting the (not)Premier's deflector-spin laden wish to give current AG John Doyle a two year contract extension.

Instead, given that Dipper and (by all accounts, totally and completely) unconflicted committee co-chair Kathy Corrigan has indicated she would rather see John Doyle appointed for a full six year second term rather than a Snookified two year running out of the pre-election clock, well....

Maybe, just maybe the NDP is doing its best to call the Ms. Clark's ridiculous bluff under what has now become, no matter how hard the wizards behind the Lib/Con curtain have tried to keep the klieg lights turned off, the full glare of the Lotuslandian media spotlight.

If so, I say good on them.

After all, it is not easy to do your job as the legislative opposition when the (not)Premier and friends refuse to actually open it.

The legislature I mean.

OK?



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Meanwhile, in non-Snookland (eg. the real world, where words, deeds and actions have real consequences).....The supposedly lame duck AG, Mr. Doyle, just keeps on keeping on by announcing that he will, indeed, look into the fiasco that was, and still is, the ridiculous cost overruns of for the BC Place 'renovations'...Bob Mackin, another proMedia gong banger, has that story in BIV...


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MLK Day Coming Down...Sometimes A Sweater Is Just A Sweater...

....And Sometimes It Is So Much More.

Our good friend Ellen Bloom (Uke forevever!) has the great story of the sweater and more great photos, here.



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When we lived in the States I loved MLK day....There are not many holidays that are inspired by folks that actually did something important in the near enough past that you can actually remember those actual people and the important stuff they did...Might also have something to do with the fact that we lived in Berkeley/Oakland at the time where the important stuff Dr. King did is celebrated all the time, not just in mid-January...
Ellen lets us use her Uke Peghead image for our 'Saturday Night Uke Cover Fighting' posts...
And, finally, just in case you were wondering about this thing I have for sweaters with meaning...It's kinda/sorta explained...here.


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