308.com's Eric Grenier, who does NOT base his analysis on single snapshot polls, and who does a pretty darned good Nate Silver impersonation, has updated his projections for the upcoming (still?) provincial election here in BC.
Well, to put it mildly, Mr. Grenier does not agree with either CKNW or Michael Smyth, whose superficial shark-jumping analyses we took issue with yesterday.
Here's Grenier's lede:
The probability of the B.C. New Democrats winning the popular vote and, quite likely, the election on May 14 has increased from 91.7% to 94.6%, despite the B.C. Liberals making important gains in the B.C. Interior and North.
With the release of a new poll by Angus-Reid, thevote and seat forecasts for the upcoming British Columbia election have been updated. As of Jan. 18, the last day that Angus-Reid was in the field, the NDP is projected to win between 45 and 74 seats, with the most likely outcome being 57 seats. The B.C. Liberals are projected to win between nine and 40 seats, with 27 seats being the most likely result. If an election were held today, the New Democrats would have a 96.4% chance of winning it.
Since the last projection, which was based on polling data as of Nov. 30, the New Democrats have dropped 0.7 points to 47.8% support, while the Liberals have dropped 0.9 points to 32.2%. The B.C. Conservatives have hardly budged, down 0.1 point to 10.4%, while the B.C. Greens are up 1.7 points to 7.8%....
Go read it all because, you know...
(and watch for Mr. Grenier's stuff to come up over on the left in the blog crawl)
And remember how, as election day approached last fall, Mr. Silver was subjected to an outright smear campaign from certain operatives down south?....You think it can't happen here?