The latest Mustel Poll is out and the top end suggests that the flim-flammery is having some effect. As a result, the Liberals have inched ahead province-wide (three points up on the margin of error among decideds).
However there are a few interesting internals, including:
"The increase in support for the BC Liberals comes largely from Lower Mainland voters; 52% would support BC Liberals (up from 40% in August) in contrast to 30% supporting the NDP (down from 43% in August)."
"Outside the Lower Mainland, the NDP still leads in most regions. In total, the NDP have the support of 45% of decided voters, and BC Liberals the support of 32%, with no significant changes in support over the past three months."
Two points to be made here.First, the sample size (only 501 province-wide) means that it is not possible to determine a riding by riding breakdown. However, given the significantly lower average population in rural vs urban ridings it is actually quite possible that NDP is ahead in terms of probable seats elected.
Second, this is a complete inversion of the usual pattern where the rural 'heartland' vote normally goes hard to the right. This leads us to conclude that things must truly be really, really, really bad outside the Lower Mainland's low interest rate-driven construction hothouse.
Take home - the headlines that will be running in the Sheep's Herd Media for the next six or eight news cycles trumpeting the coming Liberal Landslide will be as bogus as Martyn Brown's newly minted compassion for the little guy.
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