Tuesday, April 30, 2013

About Those Post-Debate 'Flash Polls' From Ipsos-Reid...


I really do wonder about them.

After all, does how you reacted in the moment matter all that much after you subsequently think, dig and reflect?

I know that I put a lot of emphasis on the latter trinity, but I suppose that's not for everyone.

At least if you're not talking about, say, sports.

Anyway, even setting all that aside, and taking into account the reasonable argument made by Tom Hawthorn, which is that these flash polls are interesting because they provide a snap-shot of public opinion before the spin machines go to work, I think that this evening's data from Ipsos-Reid pretty clearly demonstrate just how important the wording of any poll question is.

Because the numbers, handed out early by I-Reid's Kyle Braid,  had Mr. Dix 'winning' and 'most believable' but had Ms. Clark 'best speaker' and 'most premier-like'.

Isn't that dichotomy just a little bizarre?



paul said...

I'm a poll fan, including the flash polls after debates. The whole process is interesting. relatively few people watched the debate all the way through, but within a few days many more people will have an impression of who was effective and who wasn't. Those will be shaped by conversations at work, media coverage, partisan spin and polls. What people say about the debate is more important than what the leaders said. The flash poll is useful information on other viewers' first reaction.
Last night did prove Twitter was useless in shaping opinion. The stream of partisan sniping and silly comments swamped any useful observations.

RossK said...


Ya. That was Tom Hawthorn's take, and I understand what both of you are sayiing...I'm just not convinced that the flash polls (or the instantaneous ticker polls that run, in almost realtime across American pres. debate screens), assess anything that is more than skin deep.

Regarding the Twitter's uselessness in this context... I agree...Dare I suggest that the real problem with the Twittmachine, at least for something like this, is that it lacks an....



Danneau said...

Unfortunately, the dichotomy is all too symptomatic of our current régime of politics, as opposed to governance, where being most like a premier means nothing but speaking, and usually in falsehoods. Winning and believable could go to anyone set against the backdrop of our current Premier's glib emptiness.