ASplitThatCouldDriveEvenTheMostProgressiveGreen
BananasVille
Look.
I know that many, if not most, BC Green Party candidates are very well intentioned.
Heckfire, some of them, like
Shawnigan Lake's Sonia Fursteneau and that old punk rock war horse
from Burnaby named Joe, would likely make great MLA's.
And I can see how Mr. Weaver's (mostly) socially democratic platform sits well with a whole lot of progressive voters who are, at least right now, saying they will vote Green.
But here's the thing....
Every seat taken from the Dippers on the Island moves the BC Liberal Party one seat closer to victory.
And even just one or two Green splits up the middle on the Lower Mainland ensure that there will be no voter and/or pay-to-play reform before the next election in 2021.
Why do say this?
Because it cannot be denied that, despite all the post-event backtracking, that
Mr. Weaver himself made it very clear in his interview with Keith Baldrey last week that he will not work with Mr. Horgan if no one wins a majority. Furthermore, Mr. Weaver also made it clear (and has a past track record of support of the BC Liberals) that
he gets along with, and can talk to, the "Iron Cronebird", Ms. Clark, particularly when it comes to the 'economy'.
So....
The time has come is time to look hard at the data and pull out the numbers that actually matter.
Which are the second party preference numbers of decided voters...
I'm going to refer to
the most recent Mainstreet poll here, but you can look at a whole bunch of polls from all the companies over the last few weeks (they are listed, by date and company, by Eric Grenier,
here) and you will see that the following summary is not a flash in the pan.
First: Of those currently saying they will vote BC Liberal, less than a quarter of them say that their second choice is either NDP or Green. The remainder, more than half, say they are undecided on a second choice.
Second: And this is something that has NOT been discussed seriously by the landed Lotuslandian proMedia pundit gentry this election cycle, fully half of those who say the are voting NDP also say that the Greens are their second choice.
Third: And this is the big one that cannot be denied by anyone, Mr. Weaver included, two thirds of those saying they will vote Green say that the Dippers are their second choice (see Mainstreet graphic, above). What's more, only 21% of Green voters indicate that the Cronification of Everything party is their second choice.
What does this all mean Alfie?
Well, here is my analysis....
A small point that matters: Unlike 2013, at this late date there is no way for BC Liberal vote to grow significantly given the complete of a Cummingsified Con presence to pull from this time around. This was illustrated by last week's Forum poll that shaved a significant percentage off the Liberal vote when it included 'Conservative' as a choice (see bottom of post, here).
A bigger, more important point: It would be a disaster if even a small portion of the soft Dipper vote were to go Green.
The really, really big/most important point: A massive chunk of the Green vote is a progressive one that would never seriously consider voting BC Liberal but could go NDP (and probably came from the Dipper camp in the first place, particularly the part that is not millennial-driven).
Upshot?
I would posit that the last 36 hours would be best spent if Mr. Horgan et al. were to make it (
even more) abundantly clear to progressive folks leaning Green everywhere what will happen if they stay that way.
Because that vote, particularly the aspect of it that hates the cronies and all that they are doing to our province and those British Columbians that need our help most, is the one they have to get back to win.
OK?
________
And, given how important the numbers above are, I for one, do not understand why every single reporter covering Mr. Weaver is not asking him what, specifically, he will do if his party gains the balance of power in a minority government on Tuesday.
Iron Cronebird?....Blame Preston Manning backed with a dash of Murray Edwards.
Update: It goes without saying that, respectfully, I do not agree with David Beers' take on why Mr. Weaver is willing to sidle up to Ms. Clark...Why?...Because, again, the data say there is little to be gained from attempting 'woo' soft BC Liberal voters and, conversely everything for Mr. Weaver to lose by pissing off progressives who are leaning towards him...The latter, in my opinion, is Mr. Weaver's (potential) achilles heel.
Update II (Monday lunchtime): New polls out today make it abundantly clear why soft Green leaners with a progressive streak must vote NDP if they want to prevent a Liberal majority with any certainty whatsoever.
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