Monday, May 08, 2017

Where The New Support For The BC Liberals Is NOT Coming From.


From that latest, much discussed (and disputed), Mainstreet/Postmedia poll:

Note which line has not going down as the BC Liberal line has drifted upward the last couple of weeks?

Now note which line has actually been going down during that same period.

Point is, push-assisted or not, any increase in support for the Cronification of Everything party has very likely come from a drop in undecideds rather from Greens.

All the more reason why I stand behind my hypothesis from yesterday that all that soft progressive support leaning Green could, if it swings back to its senses, win it for the Dippers


And why would low info undecideds swing BCL in the final days?....Short and long of it?...Institutional endorsements I reckon.



Grant G said...

Have a look again at Mainstreet/Postmedia last poll..

Look at the first three fact, look at the graph you posted...the bottom bluish line(conservative) the graphs, as you can see, there is no Conservative support, none, however...It appears that Mainstreet/Postmedia polling as of April 12-14, stopped including Conservative as an option to vote for in their poll...I know Ross...I know...The Conservatives were consistently garnering some support when included as a choice...Mainstreet Polling....look at the graph....all those other time stamps Conservatives as a choice was in their poll...

so, there are 10 Conservatives running, 10 ridings..

Conservative Leah MCculloch in Comox Courtenay (a battleground riding?)

Conservative Kay Khilvinder Hale in Richmond Queensborough..another possibly close riding.

Conservative Trevor Hamilton in Maple Ridge Mission...NDP should retake this riding...a good Conservative candidate..

Conservative Gary O'Driscoll in Maple Ridge Pit Meadows...again, BC Liberals aren't popular there, they barely won that riding last time out...again, another riding that should swing left(NDP)..

Conservative Tony Goulet in Caribou North(there was no Conservative candidate there in 2013)..

The other 5 are running in ridings that are stronghold Lib or NDP...

Those Conservatives will be on the ballot is some very tight ridings...It looks like Mainstreet polling didn't give those polled a choice or option to could make a difference in 4-5 ridings..

When voters go to the polls, or went to the polls...Conservatives were on the ballots in 10 ridings...yet with Mainstreet polling...Conservatives ceased to exist three weeks ago..

Food for thought..


motorcycleguy said...

Just to be on record, so I won't get accused of "sour grapes"....regardless of outcome, including possible coming to fruition of Mr. Beer's election prediction poem....I will continue working toward dismantling these institutional endorsements one story at a time (ironic that news items are often referred to as "stories") is time our "professional" journalists get put out to pasture, hopefully by way of the demise of said institutions....not an ethical investigative gene among them...well, maybe a couple, however they are sullied by the company they keep.

Grant G said...

And this...this link has the breakdown of all riding votes from 2013...

There is a wildcard factor of conservatives on the ballot in 4-5 ridings that could result in swinging them Orange....

RossK said...


No sour grapes there. Seems more like manifesto to me, with more loft than any ol' little leap.

And, yes, here's hoping that Beer's very fine election poem does come true.


Got you Grant--

Thing is, those Con numbers were pretty much all wrung out of the thing by mid-April...Since then the BCL rise has come from undecideds, some of whom are obviously low-info Con-backers who have been looking for a place to land but I reckon that is only a small percentage.

Regardless, I hope you are right. We should probably know by about 9:15pm Tuesday.


Grant G said...

Ross....I know polling, you give a hundred people a question, ask them to choose option A..B...C...or D...even if d is a figment, or creepy, guaranteed a brand name will still pull in some support, and Conservative is a brand name..if the election is that tight, or possibly may well come down to a couple of swing ridings....currently Libs hold both Maple Ridge ridings, both were narrow victories for the Libs,...Clark isn't popular there, that's workingclass mainly white, the pushed out n having to pay tolls to get back in...affordability issue...HUGE ..Dislike of Clark on the personal n ethical..

I hope i'm right too....been seeing 47s everywhere...


Anonymous said...

The frightening thing to remember is that Christy never backs down from a fight, if Christy gets voted back in I'm sure that one of her first actions will be to settle the score with the BCTF. There's no way Christy will sit back and accept defeat.

Anonymous said...

NYT sues advantage BC