Sunday, May 07, 2017

#BCElxn17....These Numbers Don't Lie.



I know that many, if not most, BC Green Party candidates are very well intentioned.

Heckfire, some of them, like Shawnigan Lake's Sonia Fursteneau and that old punk rock war horse from Burnaby named Joe, would likely make great MLA's.

And I can see how Mr. Weaver's (mostly) socially democratic platform sits well with a whole lot of progressive voters who are, at least right now, saying they will vote Green.

But here's the thing....

Every seat taken from the Dippers on the Island moves the BC Liberal Party one seat closer to victory.

And even just one or two Green splits up the middle on the Lower Mainland ensure that there will be no voter and/or pay-to-play reform before the next election in 2021.

Why do say this?

Because it cannot be denied that, despite all the post-event backtracking, that Mr. Weaver himself made it very clear in his interview with Keith Baldrey last week that he will not work with Mr. Horgan if no one wins a majority. Furthermore, Mr. Weaver also made it clear (and has a past track record of support of the BC Liberals) that he gets along with, and can talk to, the "Iron Cronebird", Ms. Clark, particularly when it comes to the 'economy'.


The time has come is time to look hard at the data and pull out the numbers that actually matter.

Which are the second party preference numbers of decided voters...

I'm going to refer to the most recent Mainstreet poll here, but you can look at a whole bunch of polls from all the companies over the last few weeks (they are listed, by date and company, by Eric Grenier, here) and you will see that the following summary is not a flash in the pan.

First: Of those currently saying they will vote BC Liberal, less than a quarter of them say that their second choice is either NDP or Green. The remainder, more than half, say they are undecided on a second choice.

Second: And this is something that has NOT been discussed seriously by the landed Lotuslandian proMedia pundit gentry this election cycle, fully half of those who say the are voting NDP also say that the Greens are their second choice.

Third: And this is the big one that cannot be denied by anyone, Mr. Weaver included, two thirds of those saying they will vote Green say that the Dippers are their second choice (see Mainstreet graphic, above). What's more, only 21% of Green voters indicate that the Cronification of Everything party is their second choice.

What does this all mean Alfie?

Well, here is my analysis....

A small point that matters: Unlike 2013, at this late date there is no way for BC Liberal vote to grow significantly given the complete of a Cummingsified Con presence to pull from this time around. This was illustrated by last week's Forum poll that shaved a significant percentage off the Liberal vote when it included 'Conservative' as a choice (see bottom of post, here).

A bigger, more important point: It would be a disaster if even a small portion of the soft Dipper vote were to go Green.

The really, really big/most important point: A massive chunk of the Green vote is a progressive one that would never seriously consider voting BC Liberal but could go NDP (and probably came from the Dipper camp in the first place, particularly the part that is not millennial-driven).


I would posit that the last 36 hours would be best spent if Mr. Horgan et al. were to make it (even more) abundantly clear to progressive folks leaning Green everywhere what will happen if they stay that way.

Because that vote, particularly the aspect of it that hates the cronies and all that they are doing to our province and those British Columbians that need our help most, is the one they have to get back to win.


And, given how important the numbers above are,  I for one, do not understand why every single reporter covering Mr. Weaver is not asking him what, specifically, he will do if his party gains the balance of power in a minority government on Tuesday.
Iron Cronebird?....Blame Preston Manning backed with a dash of Murray Edwards. 
Update: It goes without saying that, respectfully, I do not agree with David Beers' take on why Mr. Weaver is willing to sidle up to Ms. Clark...Why?...Because, again, the data say there is little to be gained from attempting 'woo' soft BC Liberal voters and, conversely everything for Mr. Weaver to lose by pissing off progressives who are leaning towards him...The latter, in my opinion, is Mr. Weaver's (potential) achilles heel. 
Update II (Monday lunchtime): New polls out today make it abundantly clear why soft Green leaners with a progressive streak must vote NDP if they want to prevent a Liberal majority with any certainty whatsoever.



Grant G said...

My upshot analysis BC's 2009 election...290,220 voted advance polls(17.57% of voters voted advance polls)....

in 2013 election....290,220 voters voted in advance polls(20.34% of voters voted advance polls)...

However, in BC election 2017.. 614,389 voters voted in advance polls..

more than double over 2009...This is a good sign..


Lenin's Ghost said...

Sorry about going off track. Kind of.
I just watched Ken Loach's "I, Daniel Blake". An excellent movie for everyone to see.
Based on the UK's social service nightmare. We are one step behind them.

RossK said...

Got it Grant - why do you think it's a good sign?


Not off-topic at all LG--

After all, a pyrrhic 'victory' for the Greens could very easily send us deeper into our own social service nightmare.


Anonymous said...


You're doing some heavy lifting here RossK…thank you.

Grant G said...

Why a good tells me efforts by Elections BC o get out the vote is working...sorry about screwing up the numbers up top...

366,558 voted advance polls in 2013..

614,389 in 2017 voted advance polls..

that's a huge increase, tells me people were motivated to motivated would you be to re-elect Christy Clark..

if young people vote in bigger numbers this's a good thing..


Len said...

My 18 year old grandson even voted said to me "it felt good actually",,,I personaly believe mr Weaver is a Lieberal plant

Mr. Beer N. Hockey said...

Sometimes, when citizens desire a change in government, they act cohesively, as Albertans did two years ago, to ensure the change happens. Sometimes they don't. We'll find out on Tuesday.

RossK said...

Hope you are right about that Grant - thanks.



Personally, I think Mr. Weaver figures he can affect change as the Environment minister in a Clark government.

I think that would be a fool's errand, particularly if the wizardry was to make Fazil Mihlar Mr. Weaver's deputy minister.



Indeed we shall.


Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

low info splits the vote?
its not black and white its chess.?

GWest said...

I'm not sure if if means anything but the suggestion by Mr Weaver and some Green supporters that the NDP is involved in 'voter suppression' is a strange contention in the light (at least from the perspective of someone here in Victoria) that the Greens are - for all intents and purposes - invisible. I've been manning the phones fairly consistently at the NDP central campaign offices on Fort Street for the past couple of weeks and there is a constant ebb and flow of volunteers, candidates and workers staffing that space. More or less directly across the street is the Green headquarters - in a vacant storefront which used to house a Telus marketing depot - and those premises, to all intents and purposes, are almost always empty. The few times I have seen people in that space (and it is entirely visible through large windows) there have NEVER been more than two individuals inside. If anyone's suppressing the vote it isn't the NDP

Grant G said...

Don't believe Mainstreet/Postmedia poll...The commentary on Mainstreet's last poll is identical to the endorsements by Van Sun n Province editorial they were written by the same people...imagine that.

Everyone should read this first...A little Mainstreet polling history.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Grant for your 8:49 am comment, that makes me feel really hopeful again. The NDP can win.

It's funny because I KNOW that Mainstreet is biased for the Liberals, it's been clear from their tweets and how they frame their polls.

My spidey sense has been tingling from the start.

Mainstreet trying to discourage the progressive vote from voting at all or voting NDP.


RossK said...

Given Monday's polls it is now even more clear that soft progressive Greens must come home to the NDP or the Cronification of Everything will continue, unabated, until 2021.

(with, very possibly, the good Mr. Weaver as Environment minister)


Anonymous said...

if you are on minimum wage, and not voting, you must be happy.

if you are for or against grizzly bear hunting or site C etc ,and not voting ,are you a hypocrite?

You have had many days to pre vote so there are no excuses.

in 2021 will there be even more low info voters?

Len said...

I was wonering when all the retail jobs are gone because of shopping online,what kind of great jobs will her highness be promoting

Grant G said...

Eric Grenier..CBC poll tracker..

Libs 44..NDP 41....Greens 2 house speaker for Libs, house speaker can't vote...interesting

RossK said...


A couple of things...

Grenier's tracker is most heavily waited to new Mainstreet poll which I, like you, have some issues with...Mostly in their regional split on the Lower Mainland (compared to everyone else).

Interestingly, though, in that most recent poll from Mainstreet the 2nd choice of Greens has flattened a little...Now down to 58% Dipper (vs. 67% from the previous poll that I mentioned in the post)...So, does this mean that some Greens have already come home to the Dippers?...More importantly, will this trend continue amongst progressives who will get a real wake-up call today given that the term BCL Majority is now being thrown around in the proMedia.


Anonymous said...

First time commenter here. I'll also say I call BS on the postmedia poll. Simply because couple of weeks back they had ndp ahead by 10,one week back ahead by 5 and now only a statistically insignificant 1. This would almost indicate ndp vote is collapsing or libs are making a surge neither of which seems very plausible given what other polls are telling us. The latest Justason poll has ndp back in the lead, albeit by a hairs breath, ipsos latest is telling us a very similar story which would tell me some of these postmedia numbers are crafted to tell a story the libs would like the voters to hear...

RossK said...


I have the same issue with Mainstreet's overall numbers given that they are the exception

However, if it is a dead-heat or even Dipper slightly ahead overall that still spells trouble given voter inefficiency (i.e. big numbers in a relatively small number of ridings).

Anonymous said...

Ross, I agree wholeheartedly. I'm also hoping, like Grant, the advance polling numbers are a sign of things to come for tomorrow. Funnily enough, the postmedia folks, while reporting the surge in advance poll numbers, are quick to point out how the overall 2013 turnout was lower despite an increase in advance polling...What gives me hope is the magnitude of the increase this time around. If not, we are in for four more years of pillage and plunder, thanks to our lady with the Cheshire cat grin and her corporate cronies.

Grant G said...

Mainstreet/Postmedia's last poll....If you look at the commentary by Quito Maggi, it is strikingly similar to Van Sun/Province editorial board endorsement...

There are no poll questions like...are the NDP worth the risk?....are you satisfied with the status quo....? how Quito Maggi came to his conclusions/commentary when no questions like that were asked....but all in all, ...I'm glad the poll was presented that clearly tells voters who are voting Green that at best, Greens will have 1..maybe 2 seats...

Many Green voters may have a second look and vote NDP

Alison said...

Given that Mainstreet/Vancouver Sun has "Gary Oldman" from The Dark Knight Rises running in Saanich North and the Islands, I'm surprised he isn't polling better. Third graphic down :

RossK said...

I agree that turnout is important and that a high one will favour the NDP.

However, we cannot ignore the hiving off of progressive votes from the NDP to the Greens. Heckfire, without it Mr. Dix would be the incumbent right now (and it has grown since 2013).

On the flip (i.e. positive) side, I cannot see how the vote for Ms. Clark can grow any further between the weekend and Tuesday given that this time there is no collapsing rump Con vote to come home to her.


RossK said...



Do the fine folks of Saanich and all those lovely Southern Gulf Islands know they could also vote for Sid Vicious if they want to?




Boss! Boss! The Plane....errr Push!


e. a. f. said...

Weaver would work with Christy Clark but not Horgan. My conclusion, there is no whore like an old whore. Would Elizabeth May work with Christy Clark? I doubt it. Remember the old line of, you are known by the company you keep. if Weave would like to keep company with a premier who had 8 kids die on her watch, 4 people die from death by hospital in a month and a suicide, then I'd suggest Weaver is an enabler and isn't an environmentalist at all. He would then not care about the human animal. Yes, Weaver we are part of the environment and we count also, especially those little kids such as the one who died because of a lack of government regulated and supervised day care.

Weaver would crawl into bed with some one who wants Site C? Weaver wants to crawl in bed with some one who has Mount Polley on her record? Weaver wants to crawl into bed with a party which has ruined rivers and the salmon stock so IPPs can make a shit load of money and rip hydro customers off. Weaver wants to crawl into bed with some one who poisoned a lake on Vancouver Island? Weaver isn't Green. Weaver is a political opportunitst and nothing more. in my opinion Weaver thinks he is special and Christy has pandered to that trait. If he were to support Horgan and the NDP, if necessary, he would be one of many and that is something Weaver just couldn't stand.

My prediction, if Weaver does hold a balance of power and there is even one more Green, they won't be voting with him, unless they too are a "political whore". Christy has done nothing but cheer for the bear kill. what is in it? Its not like its a huge money maker and Weaver wants to support her. Perhaps he is one of those academics who thinks they are smart enough to "Persuade" Christy of her "wrongs". He has to understand in Christys mind she is never wrong. Its all about Christy and her pay to play pals. If people vote for weaver and the Greens especially in ridings which lost last time because of the Green vote, they are saying its O.K. for Christy to go ahead and have more children die in care, more people to die in hospitals and its OK to have more mount Polleys.

Haven't looked at the polls. they didn't work last time. Tomorrow night will decide whether it is time to pick up my E.U. citizenship to ensure I have decent health care at a reasonable cost.

RossK said...


Even if you removed all the scandalous stuff from the equation (which I know can't be done), if you just compare the policy planks of the parties there is no way in heckfire Weaver should be supporting the 'nice' Ms. Clark on anything from a policy perspective.