See update at bottom of post for a comment on today's brand spanking new Forum numbers...Upshot: The whiplash from the daily poll changes may be a phantom one
At this point in an election trends matter and the numbers from yesterday's Ipsos poll have things going the wrong way, with the BCL up a few and the Dippers down a few. That puts the general, both for Ipsos and Justason, in a statistical tie.
The Clarklandians' greatest strength, apparently, is still the 'Economy' which means that the stenography on the part of the local proMedia (stenography like this from Mr. Bailey of the Globe) is working and the real truth is not getting out.
What does it all mean?
Well, as you might expect, it means that Mr. Horgan et al. need every single seat if they are going to have a chance.
Especially in ridings where things are historically close and, regionally, on the island (which is absolutely required given the fact that, apparently, the hurtland still wants to vote against its own best interests).
Which further means that if everything goes right for the NDP and they get their Mr. Beer 'N Hockey-assisted ground game running at peak efficiency the Greens can still lose it for them.
And don't give me that 'folks who vote Green also vote Liberal' codswallop'?
Because it's all there, writ large, in Ipsos' drill down numbers:
-Among BC Liberals voters, their second choice remains equally between the NDP (28%) and Greens (26%).
-Among NDP voters, their second choice still strongly favours the Greens (53%) over the BC Liberals (15%).
-Among Green voters, the NDP (45%) remains much more likely than BC Liberals (14%) to be their second choice.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but, the real message of the last week has to be 'Progressives don't let their friends vote Green' unless, of course, they secretly want the cronification of everything to continue until, finally, there is nothing left of our fair province.
Where's the hope?....Well, Horgan is winning on overall positives straight-up vs. Clark...The Dipper age demos are solid in the middle and they do not have to rely on a big youth vote to win...Finally, unlike last time out, there is nowhere, really, for the Clarklandians to grow given that there is no blueCon rump lingering like there was last time courtesy the destruction of the good Mr. Cummings...
Of course, all of the above could be pure bull hockey because we, the public, are not getting any riding-specific numbers whatsoever.
Update: Today's Forum poll has the Dippers up by eight over the Clarklandians...But, before you get too excited please realize that Forum has a 'Conservative' column that is getting 7% which is codswallop given that there only 10 Cons running...Thus when low info folks of that ilk get in the booth and can find no Con who do you think they will choose?....Thus, taking that 7% and giving it to the BCL brings things pretty much right to where Ipsos has them.