Mathletes For Obama

AllThePollsThatFit
CanuckistanianInAStrangeLandVille


You want numbers?

Legal alien Greg Morrow's got the real November (not a)Surprise Numbers (races that he figures could still swing either way, for either candidate, are in red)

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+24.0) — 55 EV
New York (+29.7) — 31 EV
Florida (+4.2) — 27 EV
Illinois (+23.5) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+8.5) — 21 EV
Ohio (+5.8) — 20 EV
Michigan (+15.0) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+15.3) — 15 EV
North Carolina (+2.6) — 15 EV
Virginia (+6.5) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+23.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+17.0) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+12.1) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+11.0) — 10 EV
Maryland (+11.4) — 10 EV
Colorado (+6.6) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+19.3) — 7 EV
Oregon (+15.6) — 7 EV
Iowa (+11.6) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+7.3) — 5 EV
Nevada (+7.0) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+11.1) — 4 EV
Maine (+16.2) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.7) — 4 EV
Hawaii (+35.5) — 4 EV
Vermont (+24.5) — 3 EV
Delaware (+17.6) — 3 EV
D.C. (-) — 3 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 364 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+13.6) — 34 EV
Georgia (+4.0) — 15 EV
Missouri (+0.4) — 11 EV
Indiana (+1.7) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+14.0) — 11 EV
Arizona (+4.4) — 10 EV
Louisiana (+15.6) — 9 EV
Alabama (+23.7) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+13.7) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+10.0) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+10.4) — 6 EV
Kansas (+12.0) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+12.0) — 6 EV
Utah (+36.4) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+8.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+22.8) — 4 EV
Montana (+3.8) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+21.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.8) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.0) — 3 EV
Alaska (+15.3) — 3 EV
–
TOTAL — John McCain 185 EV

I think the thing to note here is that, based on Mr. Morrow's analysis, it looks like only 42 of Obama's electoral votes are in play.

So even if O's support went soft between now and Tuesday it's hard to see him at less than 300 electoral votes even if he lost, say, a still-somehow-suppressed Ohio.

And the magic number to win?

Why, it's 270.

So.....

I'm not sure, but I think, especially if I really strain my ears real hard, that I can hear the lady with the fabulous pipes starting to sing.

OK?


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Greg's place is DemocraticSpace - and it's always the place to go for good, hardnosed analysis served up smart, without snark. Which, of course, is exactly how David Frum pretends he wants it (ha!).
Update: All of George Snuffalopagas' Sunday Talking Heads completely agree.

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