Between A Crock and A Nutcase

Ann Arbor, Michigan
42°16' North; 83°43' West

Worried about going into hyperglycemic shock if you spend too much time watching/listening/reading the Mainstream Media's coverage of Iraq's election results?

Wondering if we in Canada should just put up, shut up and get in the game now that freedom reigns in Iraq?

If the answer is yes to either question we suggest you remember to check in with Juan Cole once in awhile for a good stiff dose of the anti-Kool Aid. Cole is one of those people that actually knows something about that which he speaks. And even if you don't agree with him all the time, by reading his stuff and following his links you will leave his place knowing more about the situation in Iraq than when you came.

Today Mr. Cole tells us that the Mr. Allawi is the big loser which, on the face of it at least, appears to be the case given the fact that the puppet garnered only 13% of the vote despite all that the Bush surrogates did for him in terms of machine, money and mobilization.

But there is also this matter of Sistani's party falling back to the pack in the last few days (to 48%; 300 ballot box recounts anyone?) just enough to ensure that he will have to get serious help to build a coalition with the 2/3 of the seats required to form the gov't. Cole suggests that this might come from the Kurds who have 26%. However, there is the flipside to consider as well. It is a situation that is just fine enough that it too makes you wonder once again about the delays and recounts. Specifically, together, the Kurds and Allawi have 39% of the vote which isn't enough to win anything at all, but it is enough to stop Sistani indefinitely if that's what Negroponte et al. decide is the course of action that should be taken.

And if it does become a longterm stalemate because Sistani won't give in, who wins?

We say advantage Insurgents and Occupiers both, two parties that nobody voted for. As the Guardian's soon to be former man in Bagdhad, Rory Gallagher, points out, if this status quo holds all Iraqis will lose.

"For what the US and Britain have yet to acknowledge about the past two years in Iraq is the searing humiliation brought by their occupation. It is helping fuel the insurgency and is turning even moderate Iraqis against the western forces who once promised liberation. It has turned the country into a fearful melting pot of Islamic radicalism and given cause to a new generation of militancy across the region."

And that Marcus Gee is the real story, delivered by someone who has been in Iraq since the invasion began. All of which goes a long way to explain, without even invoking the morality argument re: unjust war, why Canada must not contribute, even if it is only a token, to the continued Occupation.