Wednesday, August 26, 2015

#Elxn42...Are Lotuslandian Dippers Being Bamboozled By That 41% Thingy?



I really, really hate it when I'm forced to acknowledge that the good Mr. Kouvalis might actually have a point...


Speaking of Mario Canseco...

One bit of that Insights West poll that created so much heat in both the public prints and on social media platforms after it was released yesterday was problematic in the extreme.


Not because the poll itself was crappy (it was actually very detailed) but rather because, in my opinion, the press release from Insights West featured the following graphic prominently...


Looks pretty exciting, right.

After all, 41% of folks voting Dipper in Lotusland, while simultaneously crushing all of the other parties, would seem to be a pretty big deal indeed.

Which is how things were (and are still being) reported, pretty much straight-up, all over the place.

Except when you dig into the poll's details things are not quite so exciting.

First of all, that 41% is based on using only 'decided voters' in the denominator (see small bit in parentheses on the info-graphic above).

However, when you factor in all the folks who were polled, including the undecideds, the numbers look like this:


Have you got it now?

Specifically do you see that it is only 32% Dipper amongst all potential voters.

And that Dipper number is even lower outside Metro Vancouver.

And look at that whopping 24% for the Greens on VanIsle.

Finally, have a look at the age splits by party in that table above.

Do you see what I see (and what I've been bleating on about for awhile now)?

Decided Dipper votes skew decidedly young.

And, as much as I like and admire all young'uns everywhere, as we learned here in B.C. in the 2013 provincial election, the kids just don't vote like the old codgers do.

And that's why I begrudgingly have to admit that there is a kernel of truthful non-truthyism to Mr. Kouvalis' snarky tweet at the top of the post (but just a kernel).


Upshot?...In my opinion, even in the face of continuing Dipper-friendly poll results like this, strategic voting could still make a huge difference in BC...Which could really, really matter in the end of the night on Oct 19th if Nanos is correct that things are starting to shift back to the Con side of the ledger in Ontario (scroll down)...
There is some bonus good news in that IW poll however....And essentially it is how malleable the non-Con vote is in Lotusland...Which, again, means SVoting could work.



Eleanor Gregory said...

There are Green Party signs along Highway 14 in the riding of Esquimalt Saanich Sooke, next up Conservative signs and only one NDP sign.

North Van's Grumps said...

Speaking of Mario Canseco... Let's not leave out his sidekick at the main provincial event May 2013 Martyn Brown writing, afterwards, from the Georgia Straight podium:

Politics has a way of teaching us humility, even if we never fully learn the lesson. One would think that I would have been the last person to write off any sitting government months before the vote. Nope. Hubris and bravado got the better of me.

To add insult to irony, I also attributed the B.C. Liberals’ widely expected loss to Premier Clark’s weak leadership and lack of humility, in contrast to Adrian Dix’s example. In the end, it was the strength of her campaign performance in the face of his shaky offering that turned the tide and delivered her party’s jaw-dropping victory.

Once again the political gods have reminded us that miracles can happen with the right combination of camera-made leadership, charisma, passion, warmth of character, focused messaging, effective advertising, organizational smarts and muscle, superior research, and quality candidates.

Anonymous said...


Elizabeth May is undeservedly Teflon. She saves the media work, providing them with easy headlines and they like. I accept that.

The only hope is that the mask of Con-formity drops. Only Vice, reveals that the veneer of zealous, wholesome, churchiness in Steve's back office, is the beardiest kind of spin. If the base learns that, well who knows? It would be akin to Steve being a closet vegan as well as well-known feline firster.

Anonymous said...

Good eye Ross...

Yes the Devil is in the details of the data in this poll and not in the header takeaway. The poll numbers are promising but not rock solid for the reasons you mention. The BC progressive/nonCon numbers look good but there are still many undecideds. The progressive vote density is a bit lumpy geographically throughout many ridings. Also the youngish vote has in the past not proven totally reliable (up to this point)). This is something that we have seen before and if not properly addressed could result in the DevilCon Party of One retaining control and power over the progressive majority - perish our future! Alll for a sliver of votes in key closely contested ridings where the progressive vote is split to possibly allow the Cons to sneak in to minority government. Maybe even squeak to 'egad-ugh' another majority - the horror!

It is possible we in BC could change the course for Canada. A few BC races could very well shape the overall outcome of the election - for the whole country. In critically close BC ridings, strategic voting for the 'most competitive' progressive candidate with the best chance to defeat the Cons will have a huge impact for shaping the next government and our country's future.


Anonymous said...

Good comments, Ross.

We should also remember that the election is still more than 7 weeks from now. What's the old saying about a week in politics?