Friday, August 14, 2015

#Elxn42...Why The Latest Round Of Polls Scares The Beejebuz Out Of Me.


On a recent comment thread we got to kibbitzing about how weird it would be, if late on the night of Oct 19th, it all came down to South Vancouver Island.

Which is why that rising green bar above 'British Columbia' from the latest IPolitics/EKOS poll scares the crap out of me.

And as for the possibility that that little green bar is making some robo-dialing daemon's trigger finger located in some hidden bunker somewhere a little itchy?...Well...Never forget the location of ground zero.



Anonymous said...

the start of robocalls?

Anonymous said...

That is skewed by a few ultra-strong Green ridings, especially Lizzie May's Saanich rising, Victoria (where they will finish second or first) and (I think) North Van. They will win one or two (probably one). It's possible they impact the southern interior seats, and perhaps North Island to the point where the Cons win a plurality. I think, however their vote will be heavily concentrated in those two South Island seats.

RossK said...

Anons Above--

It's not the 'winning' I worry about...It's the 'impacting'.


RossK said...


And why not...

Especially if everything will 'legally' be kept secret until AFTER the election.


scotty on denman said...

The "beauty", as Cons see it, of the ridiculously named "Fair Elections Act" is that it would be extremely difficult to get an injunction against it---but, more "beautifully," again as Cons see it, is the fact that Constitutional challenges against it can't happen until after the election. IMHO, the Act is intended mainly to disenfranchise legitimate voters who aren't likely to vote Conservative, and only secondarily to make perfidy undetectable (the prohibition against investigations conducted by the Chief Electoral Officer is certain to be challenged, and likely to get at least part of this vile act struck down---even if Harper succeeds in cheating his way back into office.)

Dark forces will be doing everything in their evil power to keep this election a too-close-to-call, 3-way split---at least in appearance. Keeping it all balanced on a pinhead means it can be tipped it with only a few discrete robocalls, instead of a broad program, and only a few legitimate voters need be turned away, instead of attracting suspicion by mass disenfranchisement. Let's not forget the Etobicoke precedent which accepted that little shit always happens and we shouldn't expect perfectly verifiable elections (this case never went to the SCoC---the plaintiff had exhausted his legal funding.) The tighter the race is, the easier it will be to kick up a little dust and obscure a whole bunch of skulduggery.

We've noticed a newish phenomenon: erstwhile Con supporters, mostly elderly widows (comes with our demographic cohort), are entertaining a shift to the Greens, this after a lifetime of being told how to vote by their late husbands ( by dinner they enjoy being "rebels"). That our smallish sample reflects a larger phenomenon is plausible, and, if it be the case, Green polling should get a bump---only it's at the Cons expense.

I personally know a number of usually committed Greens who'll be voting strategically "just this once" to get rid of Harper, the rationale (that I spend a lot of time pumping) being, in addition to Greens being virtually non-contenders, that there's a bonus: both big opposition parties have endorsed pro-rep which of course Greens would benefit by in future elections---provided Harper gets defeated ( for some reason, it seems more persuasive to avoid the vote-splitting argument, which is naturally what we all want to avoid.) I suspect most of these acquaintances would endorse their first choice in a survey, even though they'll be voting strategically.

I'm genuinely astounded by the number of times I've heard discussions about SV. Dogwood's organizing an SV assistance site in our riding, others like Leadnow doing the same in others. The unavoidable problem is reliance on polls to discern the strategic choice. That's why Dark Forces want polls to look like a 3-way split. This gets discussed more times than I ever dreamed likely, the conclusion so far being to use as much corroborative info as possible to discern the strategic candidate. For some reason, there seems to as much interest problematically as their should be (IMHO) politically---like it's an interesting puzzle ( granted.) The motivations are crude: Harper has to go; their seems to be some kind of relief and enjoyment in not having to know a lot about policy to join in the group effort. Makes sense to me.

I take every poll showing a 3-way split, and/or rising Green support, with a grain of salt, washed down with the appropriate beverage for the time of day, while collaborating with friends, family and acquaintances. I'm thinking it's H-boy's greatest legacy that so many are willing to cooperate---finally---to get rid of him. Ironic, no?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I know about the impacting part. I don't think Green votes outside of Saanich and maybe Victoria will have much impact. Mind you, as a NDP partisan, I am reminding people at every opportunity that if they want to get rid of Harper, they have to vote NDP. (The only exception may be Van-Centre, where it seems the Libs have the strongest chance of beating a Con.

Green-leaning voters - especially in no-hope seats - should be reminded that an NDP govt has promised prop-rep voting by 2019, which means a greater likelihood of Green MPs in the next election.

RossK said...


It will be a legacy...I'm just not convinced, yet, that it will happen (the cooperation, I mean)...especially if the Liberals tick up a wee bit more (legitimately or not).

Regarding Robocalls and 'tipping'...Let's not forget the Saanich 2008 precedent where the issue wasn't whether or not misdirecting calls occurred (which was irrefubable) but rather whether or not there was concrete evidence that anyone changed their vote because of it.




Good point, along with scotty, about the prop-vote angle...


scotty on denman said...

Saanich-Gulf Islands got some freaky stuff alright, Ross.
Where else can you get:
a skinny-dipper who was both skinny and a dipper,
and dropped out of the race when it was too late to take his name off the ballot,
and a home-grown Gulf Island gumbootin' hippie who ran for the Liberals,
and lost,
and a parachuting Green Party leader who'd lost her Nova Scotia bid,
but won the first Green seat when she landed like Mary Poppins in S-GI?
Must be something in the sheesh.