Friday, May 04, 2018

Ron Gets Obvious, Courageously (Albeit A Little Late)...

AllTheirBubbles'R
UsVille


I've gotta hand it to Mr. Mason of the Globe (andnolongerempire) Mail.

Because he has just written a piece in which states clearly and unequivocally that he is in favour of the slow real estate bubble popping that our current provinicial government has initiated despite the fact that it is causing him and his a little 'pain' in the form of a paper cut.

Here is his lede:

Given what houses are currently going for in my neighbourhood, it would appear I’ve lost a couple hundred thousand dollars or so in recent months. I couldn’t be happier.
After spending the past few years lamenting the affordability crisis in Metro Vancouver (and elsewhere), bemoaning the complicity of the real estate industry in it all and heaping anger and scorn at provincial and municipal governments too gutless and conflicted to do anything about the situation, I can hardly cry over the fact that I’m not as rich, on paper, as I once was. I never earned that wealth anyway.

Prices for detached homes are down across Metro Vancouver and in Toronto, too. It would seem that policies brought in by governments in both provinces aimed at cooling the market are beginning to have the desired effect. This is what people were calling for, remember? The condo market still remains relatively hot, in B.C. at least, and hopefully the province will do something about the speculating and other nefarious practices revealed to have also infested that sector of the housing market.

Unsurprisingly, we are already beginning to hear the cries of outrage from people, rich by any definition, who have been impacted by some of the tax measures the NDP government in Victoria has introduced to deal with a housing mess that developed under the previous Liberal administration. People seem to be particularly incensed with the 0.2-per-cent rate increase in the province’s school tax, applied to that portion of a property assessed above $3-million. (So, for a home valued at $3.5-million, for instance, the extra tax would amount to $1,000.)...



As for the 'albeit a little late' bit in the header, above?

Well, it turns out that this very subject is something that we've bandied about a bunch of times round here, including this post written back in the fall of 2017:

...My wife and I, despite the fact that we were a little late to the Vancouver Real Estate bubble party-party, we are very, very lucky to be a part of a group of folks, who are mostly of a certain age (or older) in Vancouver.

Because after trying like heckfire to help get two co-ops started, one of which was killed by GordCo at the last minute, we bit the bullet and bought our bungalow on the near Eastside back in 2005, which means we paid (the then crazy/astronomical amount of) $440K for it (and the 33' X 120' chunk of dirt).

That chunk of dirt (not the bungalow itself) is now 'worth' about $1.6 million on some paper ledger thingy somewhere.

Which is all fine and good if we could cash in and move away tomorrow (which we can't).

But, much more to the point, what are my bike guy and his partner, who works for the big credit union in town, going to do when they're evicted by the assembyists?

Or my kids?

Or all those teachers that we need to hire?

Or just about anyone of our fellow citizens who actually does real things in this town?


****

Now.

I don't want anybody who came to the party even later than us (who is not a speculator) to go seriously under water but I'm really starting to wonder if the only way we are going to hold on to our city (and, most importantly, the young people in it) is if we do some wilful bubble popping.

Of course, if we do this in any serious way that it actually makes a real difference, there is no way there won't be some short term economic pain also.

But seriously, what is the alternative?...



Not that we would ever suggest that Ron is stealing our stuff or anything.

OK?



______
All snarkolepsy and joking aside, kudos to Mr. Mason for taking a real stand on a thing that actually matters to British Columbians...In this case his entire piece is worth a read (and a wurlitzering)...



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4 comments:

Kim said...

Great to "see " you, Ross K.

It feels like spring is in the air my friend. It has been a long winter.

Hope E and the girls are tuning their instruments for busking season on the island.

RossK said...

Kim!

Yes.

Apparently, I may be making an appearance or two down there as well.


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e.a.f. said...

Even if prices dropped by 50% in Greater Vancouver they still would not be affordable for most working middle class people.

If the prices dropped by 50% in Greater Vancouver you can expect foreign buyers to return to the market in droves and the market will be right back up again.

the only way we will make Greater Vancouver affordable for those who live here and grew up here, is to ban foreign ownership. Our real estate has become their money laundering destination and their place to hide money along with making even more.

Many of the Communist Chinese who were purchasing here, have moved their act to Seattle because they could purchase for less. Trust me, they'll be back. they may have also left the province because Mr. Eby is A.G. and the NDP is government. Good riddance. (this in no way refers to legitimate immigrants)

Even if some people take a temporary bath in the market, if they can afford their mortgage payments, they ought not to worry. the prices will come up again. Housing was once what we purchased to have a place of our own to live in, raise our families, garden, park the car, etc. Then it became a way to make a fast buck and or hide money from other countries.

Back in the 1980s we had a dip in the market. OMG prices had dropped approx. $100k in some west side neighbourhoods, but it still was too expensive for the average worker. of course interest rates were starting to go through the roof. But prices did recover as we see today.

Prices may go down a tad, if mortgage rates go up, but most Foreign buyers are not concerned with that.'

Mr. Mason may have a point but really, nothing is going to make it affordable for your children, your younger collegues, etc. until we ban foreign ownership,.

The catterwailing by Wilkinson and his crew regarding the school tax is simply outrageous. How do they think this province is going to play catch up in building schools without raising some taxes or perhaps they'd like the government to de fund their health care. the choice is theirs.

e.a.f. said...

If there is a bust of the bubble, at least some who hide their money in our real estate, are going to have some rude awakening. Of course London, England did have some "money" flee when G.B. required all those purchasing property to identify themselves, i.e. no numbered or shell companies. However, some town homes in London can still run you $9M/ We have reached a point in Greater Vancouver real estate that translates to we won't own our own city and it prices will still increase. Just check London and New York.

Mayor Moonbean announced affordable housing, again, for those making up to $80K a year. That ought to be adjusted to $100K and those buildings need to be very tall high rises. They're building them for the financial elites so might as well for the middle class. the City is going to need them. the City of Vancouver might also permit people to start re building their homes so they can accommodate suites. i.e. family home, lift the house so that there are 3 suites, one floor perr family member. Now that might set things up for developers to take advantage, but if game rules were implemented which stipulated families had to keep these homes as family homes for 10 years and then if they were sold, an extra tax would be levied. it would enable those who wanted a generational home, to have it and be able to afford it.