#Elxn42...Vancouver Granville....What's The Frequency Kenneth?

NoMoreTunnelVisionsFromThe
Outsider'sScreenVille


As in.....

What, exactly, is the frequency required to successfully vote strategically to stop the Con in this new, amalgamated riding that runs North-South through the middle of central Lotusland.

Well.

According to a brand new Environics poll commissioned by the good folks at LeadNow, the frequency currently looks like this:

NDP - Orek - 36
Liberal - Wilson-Raybould - 30
Con - Brosko -29
Green - Barkusky - 6


So.

Despite what the aggregators, which start with the old 2011 numbers and then layer-in a mix-master flashed-up concoction of (mostly) regional polls, this riding-specific poll, wherein the numbers are not that different than a similar poll done in August, tells us that...

...To beat the Con, family/household shown above should pick up its red and green signs from their lawn and vote the remaining orange to help end our national identity crisis.

OK?


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Even though I like very much (and have contributed to) what LeadNow is doing here, there are still a couple of important things to consider... Environics looked at decided and leaning voters (which means that there is some softness) to get the numbers....And the MOE was 4% in this specific riding....Still, you have to remember that the Con shaving and GOTV efforts to come may give their candidates 2-3 points each....Thus, strategic voters like us have to give it our best shots based on the actual riding-specific data available (and again, regional and national polls mean absolutely NOTHING when it comes to these efforts)....Lastly, I'll remind you that this kind of info really helped voters do the right thing in Esquimalt in 2011....

Other BC ridings polled by Environics in the last week...
1) PoCo-Coq...Dipper Donnelly still up by 7 but his lead has shrunk considerably in the last month...Lib is way out of contention here - Therefore, liberal leaners must strat vote as it is now getting uncomfortably close....
2) Pitt Meadows- Maple Ridge....Here it looks like a Con-to-Dip flip may be happening for the NDP's Bob D'Eith...Again Libs, and of course Greeniacs, you can't win here, so do the right thing and help de-elect the Con (who won big in 2011)!...
3) North Isle-Powell River...Dipper Rachel Blaney now looks to have a bit of a lead but there is a solid rump of Greens vote in the riding...Thus, a significant red and green strat vote, together, will ensure that the Con, who narrowly won this seat in 2011, is eliminated from the picture (interestingly, this was a 2011 riding where it looks like Strat-Voting almost worked because the Dipper was close and the Lib and Green votes were both low)...
4) Nanaimo-Ladysmith...Dipper Sheila Malcomson has a bit of lead but there is a crazy high Green vote here (as a reader points out in the comments it's exacerbated by the Paul Manly effect) that could take votes away from the hordes of orange and thus give the riding to the Con...So...Stop this!...Particularly given that the the Cons have shown some strength here in the past...Libs you are a significant number here too, but you CANNOT win so, please, do the right thing...
5) Kootenay-Columbia....It just my be a dead-heat between the Dipper Stetski and the Con...There are definitely enough Lib and Green votes here to make sure the Con Wilks is de-elected if even half of them strat-vote...

And, hey!....Thanks to A. Reader for the image at the top of the post.


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