Friday, October 23, 2015

Memo From The Dean, Part Deux


In response to our query about the Dean's first memo, the boss of the legislative press gallery has released a second more fulsome memo in the pixels of the VSun.

It starts like this:

Premier Christy Clark left it to cabinet minister Amrik Virk Thursday to respond to the information watchdog’s devastating findings about the culture of coverup inside the B.C. Liberal government.

Clark knew very well what was coming. Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham, respecting protocol, had shared her findings with the government in advance.

The government fired back with a legal letter, disputing some aspects of the report and seeking more time to respond. Denham, to her credit, stuck to the scheduled release time of 9:30 a.m. Thursday...

Which, to mine own eyes at least, indicates that Mr. Palmer, like us, did enjoy the fact that Ms. Denham ensured that the release of a public report was timed such that it would be discussed by the public's representatives in, you know...public.

Which is a good thing.


Mr. Palmer goes through 3 or four of the journalistic 'W's in his piece but, as so often seems to be the case in his coverage of this (and the previous) BCL government, refuses to go anywhere near the fifth one otherwise known as 'Why'.
And, for those of you wondering (and/or scoffing)....Of course Mr. Palmer responds to what we discuss here at this little old F-troop list blog....Ha!


Thursday, October 22, 2015

Memo From The Dean


Please see Update at the bottom of the post


Maybe I'm wrong, but...

Is it possible that the Dean just might be suggesting that there is something underhanded and/or nefarious about an officer of the people releasing the people's business in such a fashion that it will actually be discussed by the peoples'  representatives in a timely manner?

Or is he trying to tell us a slightly different thing?

Honestly, I can't tell if there is a 'Fog of Snark' here or not.

What's it all about Alfie?....Well....This.
Update Friday Oct 23rd...The Dean has written a much longer 2nd 'official' (i.e. VSun column memo) in which he makes it clear he was telling us a slightly different thing...It's discussed (and linked to)....Here.


This Day In Clarkland....Delete, Delete, Delete And...

....Delete Some More.


There is the Transportation Ministry-specific stuff that privacy commissioner Elizabeth Denham has concluded indicates that the whistleblower rather than the politically-appointed staffer was telling the truth about the forced deletion of EMails that contained 'Highway of Tears' correspondence.

But, in addition to rampant deleting in the Advanced Education Ministry, according to Rob Shaw's piece in the VSun, there is also this:

...Denham’s report also zeroed in on Premier Christy Clark’s deputy chief of staff, Michele Cadario, noting that she keeps almost none of her emails

“The commissioner found that the broad interpretation given to transitory records by the deputy chief of staff, which results in her retaining almost no sent emails, effectively frustrates the Office of the Premier’s ability to comply with (section six, subsection one) of FIPPA (the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act),” wrote Denham in her report...


Once again, we are inside the Premier's office.

Guess that would be the cue for Lotuslandian proMedia Club members to stop digging immediately.


Commissioner Denham's full report can be found....Here.
And, ya, I swiped a chunk of the header from Horgan & Co...But, in my defence, I did go one 'delete' further.
Hmmmmm....I guess we now know why the Clarklandian wizards sent the messy hair guy out on to plank to tell us that we, the public, just aren't that into matters FOI last week..Or some such thing.


Tuesday, October 20, 2015

The Rumours Of The Demise Of The Postmedia Print Organs...

...Have Not Been Greatly Exaggerated.

Paul Willcocks, off the blog and writing in the Tyee, has a good piece up on what those lockstep endorsements were really all about.

Here's a small chunk:

...(T)he endorsements mark a bleak day, or another bleak day, for Canadian newspapers.

Readers expect newspaper endorsements to reflect the careful judgments of editorial boards and the needs of their individual communities. A pro-Conservative Facebook friend, labouring under that delusion, celebrated the apparent tidal wave of endorsements for Harper from newspapers across the country.

Instead, it appears the endorsements actually reflect the views of one or two corporate managers in Toronto...

And just who do those 'managers' really work for?

Go read the rest of the piece to find out.

More and more I'm wondering if we need to institute some sort of market/monopoly-busting reform in the media organ business in this country...I think Mr. W. might disagree for reasons of scale and business models and all that, but I really do wonder if a whole passel of independents might not do a better job and be more business healthy by actually operating as small scale operations.


This Day (We're Still) In Clarkland...Document Dump Redux.


The office of British Columbia's Representative for Children and Youth released a report on May 14th, 2015 that started like this:

This report documents the downward spiral of a child who had great potential but never received the protection, nurturing and care she needed and deserved. Professional indifference to her life circumstances continually left her – and at times even actively placed her – in harm’s way...

And, surprise!, the government of Clarklandia released a response five months and four days later.

Which just happened to be yesterday.

Yesterday afternoon to be more precise.

One hour before the reporting of the Federal election results began to be even more precise.


I wonder what Ron Obvious thinks of that.


My Morning Ride


A whole lot of red.

I could have done with a little more orange.

But all and all....

Much, much better than the alternative.


Analysis of how things went in British Columbia in comparison to....Polls...Predictions...and Strategic Voting calls (including my own) is coming....


Monday, October 19, 2015

#Elxn 42....What's The Buzz...Tell Me What's A Happening.


5:30pm Pacific....Just came out of the lab...Wow....Atlantic Canada a massive sea of red, including in stronghold Dipper and Con ridings...Is it possible that Mr. Trudeau has captured all the swing voters?

7:24pm Pacific...Just got home from bike ride...Liberals leading in Kelowna!...SH and friends were right!...Gotta wonder if this landslide coming down is due to young kids the pollsters couldn't reach...

7:58pm Pacific...Looks like the Liberal surge is helping to elect Cons outside Lower Mainland...VanIsle is looking an awfully lot like the Republic of Dave Barrett.

8:18pm Pacific...Is there anything more banal than than the mutterings of Stockwell Day?

8:59pm Pacific...Harper's so-called concession speech is exactly why he was not fit to be the Prime Minister of all Canadians.

9:57pm Pacific... Will be interesting to see if Tory rump is able to re-assert itself amongst the remaining Whackadoodle fringe.


Sunday, October 18, 2015

Stopping Cons In Lotusland...A Riding-By-Riding Compendium For All Of British Columbia.


The following are my best guestimates about what you can (and, just as importantly, I suppose, can't) do to try and 'Stop the Cons' in every single riding in British Columbia...

The totals are: 'Vote Strategically For The Dipper' in 14 ridings... 'Vote Strategically For The Liberal' in 9 ridings...'Vote Your Conscience' in 19 ridings...

Feel free to throw in your two cents in the comments...

I'll make changes that make sense and/or where I've messed up right up until the last minute Sunday night....

Abbotsford:  Vote your conscience...There have been no riding-specific polls here and history says the Con should be way ahead...But, never under estimate the work of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey and friends to raise the Dipper vote.

Burnaby North-Seymour:  Strategically Vote NDP...I'm ignoring that one outlying Mainstreet poll which gave a lone 2nd place to the Liberal to make this call...Most importantly, the data really do suggest that it is folly to vote Green here...Sorry Dr. Quarmby - any other election, sure, but make no mistake, the Con could win here if there is a two + Green split here....OK?

Burnaby South:  Vote your conscience... The Dipper is strong here, so it probably doesn't matter...But there have been no riding-specific polls...So...If you are a 'leaner' rather than strongly 'decided', you could make sure the Con is stopped, cold, by laying off Red and Green.

Cariboo-Prince George:  Stategically Vote NDP...This is a little bit tough because of a possible rising tide for Mr. Trudeau regionally...But...There is a riding-specific poll that matches the historical norms which has the Dipper well ahead of the Liberal...Thus, to stop the Con, who appears to have come back to the pack,  I suggest you go Orange...The Greens, thank the Spaghetti Monster, look to be less of a factor here than down south.

Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola:  Strategically Vote Liberal...  OK, I'm way out on a limb here without any riding-specific polling data, but...History suggests the Liberal is in 2nd and there appear to be a whack of Green votes here that CANNOT WIN...So, if folks were to lay of the Dipper AND the Green AND if there is a bit of a Con swoon...Well?

Chilliwack - Hope:  Vote your conscience... Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway.

Cloverdale - Langley City:  Vote your conscience...Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway...Update: 
Laila sent a note, via the Twittmachine, that the Liberal vote may be decent here for candidate-specific reasons.

Coquitlam - Port Coquitlam:  Greens Only - Vote Strategically Liberal or NDP... The Con is vulnerable, but the lone riding-specific poll can't distinguish between Dipper and Liberal, both of whom look to have a shot...So, Green leaners who were to go either Red or Orange could actually stop the Con here...Seriously.

Courtenay - Alberni:  Strategically Vote NDP... The Dipper is in potential trouble to the Con here but, make no mistake, the NDP is still the clear strategic vote choice in this riding...The real danger here, as is the case with so many Van-Isle ridings, is the potential Green bleed which four (count 'em, four!) riding-specific polls have pegged at between 10 and 15 percent...Listen-up Greens leaners! Your first choice candidate cannot win... But you could elect a Con if you don't move over to the Orange side of the ledger...OK?

Cowichan - Malahat - Langford:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper looks to have comfortable lead...But the Con is within striking distance according to a recent riding-specific poll which had the Green vote at a freaking 19%......Greens leaners! You cannot win...  But there is actually an outside chance that you could elect a Con by not voting Orange because you think it's a fait accompli...

Delta:  Vote your conscience... Jeez Louise...I wish there were riding-specific data here to give us some indication of which way the wind is really blowing across the flatlands of 'Mall Land Looming'...Grenier's predictor has the Liberal in the lead but, based on the way he does his thing (as he himself has made clear - see postscript below), this is largely based on history and regional polling...Thus, I think Grenier's call here is very soft, especially given that this is one of those 'new' ridings...Long story getting longer?...I thought about calling this Strategic Liberal, but then realized that if I lived in this riding I would have a very hard time laying off the Dipper myself given the lack of hard numbers...Others may feel differently.

Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke:  Vote Strategically NDP.... If this wasn't southern Vancouver Island it would be a 'Vote your conscience' given that the Dipper is in the lead and the Con is relatively weak based on two recent riding-specific polls...But...The Green vote here may be as high as 20% which is a really, really dangerous thing...So, like a broken record, I once again feel compelled to say...Greens leaners... Your first choice candidate cannot win!!!....However, you need to understand that there is an outside chance you could elect a Con if you don't vote Orange..Same with you Liberal leaners also, as your first choice is also barely cracking 20%... OK?

Fleetwood-Port Kells:  Vote Strategically Liberal...The data are a little weak with only one riding-specific poll from Mainstreet...But Grenier too suggests that the Liberal could actually win...Therefore, this is one where Dippers and Greens could stop the Con by laying off of their preferred candidates because they both look to be out out of the race.

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Vote Strategically NDP...No riding-specific polling data available but, clearly, the Dipper is the only one who has a chance to stop the Con...Liberals and Green leaners (the latter of which are not insignificant here) who go Orange could really make a difference if there is any kind of a regional Con swoon.

Kelowna-Lake Country:  Vote your conscience... History and no riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con lock here.

Kootenay-Columbia: Vote (Very Strongly) Strategically NDP...History and one riding-poll strongly suggest that the Dipper has a shot here....Neither the Liberal (even if there were to be a massive, nation-wide Justin effect) nor the Green (which might have up to 10%) have a chance...But just a couple of thousand votes from both could actually stop the Con for good... Do you hear that Red and Green leaners?...You...Can....Stop...The...Con by moving to the Orange candidate.

Langley-Aldergrove: Vote your conscience... I guess you could rename this riding 'Kelowna-South' if you wanted too, except that there is a bit of a Green presence here that won't matter because history and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon:  Vote Strategically (But Softly) NDP... No riding-specific data to go on here, but....Historically strong second place for the Dipper and a bit of a Green presence...So, if folks laid off the Liberal and the Green candidates, and if the Con were to swoon into the mid-30's...Well...There is a long shot chance that the latter could be stopped.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith: Vote Strategically NDP... I know the Fed-Dipper braintrust screwed up here and sent Mr. Manly to the Greens but two riding-specific polls are telling us that the Con actually has a shot to catch the NDP candidate in this riding, in part because of the 20% bleed to Manly...The Liberal is probably only at 15%...So, in my opinion, the choice is clear in that leaners should lay off both the Red and the Green candidates to ensure that the Con is stopped mid-Island.

New Westminister - Burnaby: Vote your conscience... History, the Big Muddy, and Tugboats strongly suggest an NDP lock here.

North Island-Powell River:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper here is strong....So, some folks (i.e. Green leaners?) may feel it is safe to vote their conscience...But the Con is in the high 20's, at least, and while the Dipper was at that magic 41 way back in mid-September, clearly Dipper support has fallen a little since then...So, I am refusing to see this as a safe 'Non-Con' seat...It looks like both the Liberal and the Green candidates are both at less than 20%, thus voters leaning that way can ensure that the Con is stopped by moving to the Orange side of the ledger.

North Okanagan-Shushwap: Vote Strategically NDP... Three very recent riding-specific polls by three different polling firms all have the Dipper in 2nd with a shot to stop the Con...This one is a surprise, but if enough Liberal and, especially, Green  (who might have 10%) leaners were to vote Orange the Con could be stopped...In the Okanagan!

North Vancouver:  Vote Strategically Liberal... Riding-specific polls say that it is only the Liberal that can beat the Con...So...Folks leaning towards the Dipper and the weather person Greeniac need to lay off both of them and vote Liberal to make sure the Con is stopped....(Sorry NVG).

Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge: Vote Strategically NDP... This is NOT a pipe dream...History and a riding-specific poll suggest the Dipper has a shot... Just as importantly, history and the recent data very strongly suggest that both the Liberal and the Green are way out of it....Thus, if only a thousand Red and Green leaners, respectively, were to vote NDP instead the Con could very conceivably be stopped...For real.

Port Moody - Coquitlam: Vote Strategically NDP... This should be a safe Dipper seat...But Mr. Donnelly fell back to within 7% of the Con after the refugee thing...What's more, no riding specific polling has been done since the 3rd week of September...Through it all, the Liberal has not gotten to 20% and the Green has not gotten to 10%...So, Red and Green leaners - your first choice cannot win...Thus, you can make sure the Con does not win by voting Orange.

Prince George-Peace River-Northern Frackery: Vote your conscience... History and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.

Richmond Centre: Vote Strategically Liberal...This is one of those ridings where the regional Justin factor could give the Liberal a shot...That really is a bit of a suggest-o-gram but, clearly, history says the Dipper has no chance...So if Orange leaners (and the relatively weak Green voter contingent) can lay off their first choice and vote Liberal there is a chance that the Con can be stopped.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: Vote your conscience...Everybody who lives there (and/or who has gotten off the ferry at Swartz Bay and driven the Pat Bay into Victoria recently) knows this is a lock for Lizzy.

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vote your conscience... Dipper Cullen in a Con-stopped walk given the lack of any evidence of vote bleed to the Liberals or the Greens. 

South Okanagan-West Kootenay: Vote Strategically NDP...Two recent riding-specific polls suggest that the Dipper may have a slight lead over the Con in this new riding...These polls also suggest that the Liberal, while doing OK cannot win,....Thus, a Justin effect could actually really hurt here if it takes a couple of ticks away from the Dipper on the last weekend...There are also some Green votes to be gotten here...So, Red and Green leaners must lay off their first choice and vote Orange to help give the Dipper a solid shot at stopping the Con here.

South Surrey-Does Diane Watts (Get To) Rock?: Vote Strategically Liberal...There are no riding specific data here, but history and Eric Grenier say the Dipper has no chance...So, if there is a regional Justin effect and if the Orange and Green leaners were to lay off their first choice and go Liberal instead it is possible that Ms. Watts could be made to pay for toeing the Con party fear-mongering line.

Steveston-Richmond East: Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal.... It's a new riding in a Connish area where, in aggregate, the Liberals are strongly 2nd...So, given that the Dipper and the Green have no chance, if folks who lean that way were to vote Liberal instead, there is a wee bit of a chance that the Con could be stopped (Grenier actually has this one leaning Liberal, presumably because of the regional Justin effect layered over the history)...However, there are no riding-specific data, which is why this is a 'soft' strat-vote call.

Surrey Centre: Vote your conscience...I wish I could make the call to go all out Dipper here given that he is the (barely) incumbent...But there are no riding-specific data and Grenier sees the regional Justin effect getting the Liberal decently close, which is why I'm not making a Strat-Vote call except to say that this is one of those ridings where absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green, because if they very well could be working to help elect the Con 
(i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).

Surrey-Newton: Vote your conscience... It's one of those 'new' ridings, but you could make a case for it belonging to the Dipper Simms...However, the aggregate votes from 2011 suggest it could go any which way. Thus, in the absence of riding-specific polls (why the heck aren't there so few in the South of the Fraser ridings anyway!!?) I honestly believe it wouldn't be prudent to make a strat-vote calll given the potential for that regional Justin possibility...The only thing that can be said for sure, again, is...Absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green in this riding if they don't want to see it go to the Cons (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).

Vancouver-Centre...Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal... Should be Hedy in a walk, right?....Well, the Con was actually reasonably close last time when that darned Green vote was 15%. So, sorry Dippers, but, given that, I'm making the strat-vote Red call here...Honestly, if it were any other election...(and if somebody actually has some hard numbers to share here, I'd be happy to reverse this one).

Vancouver East...Vote your conscience....She's no Libby Davies, but... The Dipper Kwan can't lose.

Vancouver Granville: Vote your conscience (with a big, fat green asterisk)... I guess this is one of the ones where I'm going against the party line...But....Looking at the four riding-specific polls I cannot see a strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Dipper....And, if you pull out the single outlying Mainstreet poll, I see no strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Liberal either, even with the potential Justin effect...So, what to do?...Well...Both the Red and the Orange are strong enough that if nobody (and I mean nobody!) with a progressive bone in their body were to vote Green, the Stealth-Con (i.e. the candidate that nobody in the riding has actually seen) can be stopped, regardless who actually wins...OK?

Vancouver Kingsway: Vote your conscience...This is a lock for the Dipper, Davies (Don, not Libby)...And, in my opinion, rightfully so.

Vancouver South: Vote Strategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...The riding-specific polls strongly suggest that the Liberal candidate has a real shot to stop the Con Wai Young (who just may be the worst MP, literally, ever)....Importantly, the Dipper has NO CHANCE here...Thus, if Orange and Green leaners vote Liberal instead, the Con Young can be sent packing for good....Do it!....And if you O&G leaners need a little more impetus, please understand that the despicable 'Hookers and Heroin' print ad that the Cons ran recently was clearly designed to target a specific Liberal-leaning demo that make up a significant slice of the electorate in ridings like this.

Vancouver Quadra: Vote your conscience... A lock for the Liberal, Murray...And, in my opinion, rightfully so (despite her previous stint as elGordo's Earth Wind and Fire minister provincially).

Victoria: Vote your conscience...This is one that really bugs me given that the Green, Roberts, might have an outside shot to knock off the Dipper, Rankin (which is purely projection from Grenier given the lack of riding-specific polling data)...If there was even a smidgeon of a chance that the Con could win here I would make a strat-vote Orange call but there is not...So... Why does this one bug me so much if the Con can't win?...Well...It is Mr. Rankin who is the proven environmentalist here, not the former MoCo maven Ms. Roberts.

West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Rafe Mair Country: Vote Stategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...There have been four riding-specific polls by three different outfits here since August...All have the Liberal in front with the Con second...However, the Liberal lead is not that large...Importantly, the potential Green and Dipper vote is significant but neither can win...So...To ensure that the Con is stopped Orange and Green leaners must vote Liberal...OK?

If you want to look at numbers yourself, there is a really great aggregation of all the riding-specific polls in the country, including B.C.....Here....Eric Grenier's 'predictions' are....Here (but if you are not used to looking at/thinking about these be sure to read his disclaimer first [scroll down a little, here]).


#Elxn42...What Was That Crazy Globe Editorial Really About Anyway?


Nik Nanos is BellGlobeCTVTSNEverythingElseButRogersMedia's numbers guy.

And his rolling polls have had Trudeau ahead, with Harper in solid second, for awhile now.

And, bingo-bango-Tulowitzki's-one-armed-banjo, suddenly the Globe has an editorial calling for Canadians to vote against their own best interests, not for a Stephen Harper, but instead for a Stephen Harper-free Conservative Party of Canada.


Why would the braintrust at EverythingElseButRogers media go and do a thing like that?


All kinds of very smart, serious people (i.e. folks who work for non-EverythingBut media outlets) seem to think that something has come completely unhinged in Globe editor David Walmsley's office.

Me, I'm not so sure.

Instead, I think Mr. Walmsley and his compatriots may have been acting like a pack of crazy old uncles after they stared at the chessboard, and the Nanos numbers, for sixteen hours straight while wired on Wild Turkey and Tater-Tots looking for a way to avoid what they consider the REAL potential disaster that could arrive as early as Tuesday.

Which, of course, would be a minority-positioned Mr. Trudeau making good on his promise not to work with the Conservatives and instead make a deal with the Dutch Elm Disease-hating devil.


What if the guy that Mr. Trudeau said he would never form a coalition with with were suddenly not running the Conservative ship?

Well, then, if that were the case maybe Mr. Walmsley & Co would be happy to say hello to..

The new (and improved) Foreign Minister Jason Kenney!

If you get my drift.

Update: It looks like the Ottawa Citizen's resident Sushi Boy, Glen McGregor, is wearing a similar Sunday Hypothesis Hat while hiding behind his paper's ugly yellow front page....


Saturday, October 17, 2015

What I'll Be Reading This Christmas...


Thanks to a  linear type-type review by Dwight Garner and this interview with NPR I already know that I'll be spending a good chunk of the week between Christmas and New Year's reading Declan MacManus' massive tome titled 'Unfaithful Music and Disappearing Ink'.

Assuming, of course that any members of my family still stop by here occasionally.


I guess I could just tell them face-to-face while Mr. Harper's dragging the lake.

Or some such thing.

And, ya, now that the leaf raking is done... I really am working on a Lotuslandian Con-Stopping Compendium....Should be up before the Blue Jays game is over.


Friday, October 16, 2015

And Now For Something Completely Different...Seven Minutes Of Hunter Thompson, Sans Gonzo.


Yes, that's right.

It's vintage 1967 Thompson with Kitty Carlisle et al. on 'What's My Line'.

And he doesn't fool anyone.

But the $150 he takes home is probably more than he made on that bloody motorcycle gang book a few years before he went to work for Jann Wenner and wrote that 'other' book...

Tip O' The Toque, as is so often the case for all things interesting on the YouTube, to 'Open Culture'.
This would have been the same year that Thompson told Lewis Nichols of the Times, who asked him what separated him from the Angels, that he had a gimmick. Specifically, that he could....Write.
HST Fridays you may be asking?....Well, it was a regular feature bakc in the dinosaur days (i.e. pre Haloscan's demise which means the huge comment threads are all done gone) 'round here....You can see some of the old bits....Here.
And, ya, I am procrastinating on my doing that riding-by-riding handicapping...


#Elxn42: Riding-Specific Polling...The Outlier.


Here's the latest synopsis from the boss of 'Mainstreet' Quito Maggi, the firm polling for PostMedia, in Burnaby North Seymour:

...“Right now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour,” continued Maggi. “There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. There’s not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.”...

Why do I raise this?

Because, as others, including Eric Grenier, have noted previously, Mainstreet's numbers are the ones that tend be most often differentcompared to the other pollsters.

Case in point, here are the multiple polls in that riding from Insights West:


Either Mr. Maggi and his 'Interactive Voice Response' (i.e. computer interfaced prompting of responder) is pure genius....


Something quite different.

We shall see come Monday night.

This is not a trivial point given that it is the single Mainstreet poll, this time compared to multiple Oracle polls (who also use IVM, go figure),  that has allowed the proMedia mavens of Lotusland and the usual suspects from BCLiberal/Clarklandia make such a fuss about how Leadnow is a disaster because of the situation in Vancouver Granville.
The chart, above, comes a fantastic (and I mean fantastic!) Wiki page wherein someone has done the hard work of aggregating all the riding-specific poll across the country. 
I'll be back with a more comprehensive look at Lotuslandian ridings later....


Thursday, October 15, 2015

The BC Liberal Flying Surrender Monkeys Are Out In Force On The Twittmachine Discrediting Strategic Voting.


And it's all based on Leadnow's calling VanGranville for the NDP.



As we've been saying for days now that riding is currently too close to call.

And nationwide Leadnow has called things pretty much even Lib/Dipper.

So this demonization of them is ridiculous, especially for those of us whose real intent is to vote smart to Stop Cons.

And there are many ridings in BC where things are much clearer.

Here is a short list (I'll have more on this in a day or so). 

Of course, the FSMonkeys are being aided and abetted by....You got it...The aggregator vs. riding-spec poll conflating Keef!
Re: All those FSM's pounding their phones simultaneously..Where is that confounded talking points memo anyway?


#Elxn42: In Which Mr. Harper Doubles Down On The Hookers And Heroin Smear.


Like I said yesterday, it's clear that the fine folks who are bent on destroying our country so that they can then rule over the rubble test drove this thing when they had Jason Kenney babble on about it as a one-off a couple of weeks ago.

And, clearly, they must have gotten the focus group-driven response they wanted from the tiny sliver of the citizenry that they think they can scare the bejeezus out of for no good reason at all, despite what the majority, medical science, and/or the Supreme Court of Canada have to say.

Otherwise, why would their (only?) candidate run towards it as fast as he can as noted by the MoCo:

Stephen Harper is defending a Conservative ad campaign targeted at Chinese and Punjabi-speaking voters in Vancouver and Toronto that claims Justin Trudeau supports the sale of marijuana to children, the expansion of safe injection sites and the establishment of neighbourhood brothels.

A spokesperson for the Conservative leader said the party doesn't comment on its advertising strategies, but Harper defended the campaign.

"Justin [Trudeau] refuses to acknowledge the damage that drugs do to families and communities," Harper, referring to the Liberal leader, said in a written statement from his office.

"He wants to allow the sale of marijuana in corner stores and increase the number of heroin injection sites, dangerously misguided policies that would only make drugs more accessible to our children."...

All being done, of course, while he and his flit around the 905 Belt with a crack thug that people actually should be scared of at his side.

I despair.

Folks have been E-mailing asking about further Strategic Voting suggestions...I'm waiting until the weekend when I plan to have something comprehensive up...Day job and all that (plus I want to see if there are any last minute polls worth considering)...Again, though, as I said yesterday....Don't let Vancouver Granville scare you just because it is too close to call...Why?... Because there are many other ridings in British Columbia where the situation is already crystal clear....OK?


#Elxn42...It's Getting Down To Nut-Cutting Time For Strategic Voters In British Columbia..


Updated: Thurs Oct 15th....I'll have a more comprehensive BC-wide overview on the weekend...In the meantime, someone has made a fantastic Wiki-Page which keeps track of all the riding-specific polling countrywide...Here.

The folks at LeadNow have made a select number of strategic voting recommendations based on riding-specific polling numbers that tell them that a vote for any other candidate is a potential vote for the Conservatives.

And it's important to note that they are telling we, the majority that make up the Con-Stoppers, to go all in for eight Dippers and eight Liberals Canada-wide.

In British Columbia it's a different story, again based purely on the numbers...


Many folks might be thinking that Mr. Trudeau is going to win so why bother.


If you really feel that way you should go read Eric Grenier's latest, because he who keeps track of multiple polls closest does his best to make a prediction but, in the end, gives up because it's still too close to call.


And what about the Lotuslandian ridings not on the above list?....They, I think are going to have to wait...For example, it looks like VanGranville, based on multiple polls, is a statistical Non-Con dead-heat between the Liberal and the Dipper...


Wednesday, October 14, 2015

This Afternoon In Clarkland: 'Sparkle Ponies Like Me!...They Really, Really Like Me!'


Premier Clark and friends are apparently drinking their own bathwater at some sort of in-house LNG conference in downtown Lotusland today.

The (nolongerso)Giant '98's Laura Baziuk has this report:

The BC government is hosting its third international Liquefied Natural Gas conference on Wednesday in downtown Vancouver, but there is still no word on a start date for operations.

Premier Christy Clark is talking up B.C.’s foray into the LNG market.

If it goes to plan, it will return $9 billion in the first 10 years.

Clark says foreign investors see a profit to be made here.

“I look at it and I see a way to create thousands of good jobs for the people here, I see a way to create the revenue that we need to support the social programs, hospitals and schools.”...

No word yet on how much the 'conference' is costing you and me who are increasingly being asked to pay more than our fair share for social programs, hospitals and schools so that Ms. Clark and company can give away all our natural resources for (often less than) free.

And, yes...The header just might be making you think of....This.


#Elxn42: Strategic Voting....Oooooooooooh Scary!


At least that's the story according to the-above-the-fold front page headline in today's Vancouver Sun.

To wit:

Analysis: Strategic voting can be confusing and can easily backfire.


As you might expect, the actual story by Peter O'Neil is not nearly so 'scary'.

But still there is this bit, wherein Mr. O'Neil focuses on one of the most muddled ridings in all of British Columbia:

...The new riding of Vancouver Granville, for example, might turn out to be the subject of an academic thesis on the risks of strategic voting.

An organization called Leadnow had two polls done by the firm Environics, one in August and one in September, suggesting that the NDP’s Mira Oreck had a modest lead and was in a better position than Liberal Jody Wilson-Raybould to defeat the Conservative candidate.

For months Leadnow has done door-to-door canvassing, while providing voters with that data.

But things became murky on Tuesday when Leadnow issued a new Environics poll for that riding showing the Liberals at 35 per cent, the NDP at 33 per cent, the Conservatives under candidate Erinn Broshko at 28 per cent and the Greens’ Michael Barkusky at four per cent. That poll of 505 respondents, done Oct. 9 through 11 and using automated voice technology, had an error margin of 4.4 percentage points, putting the Liberals and NDP at a statistical tie.

But another poll, sponsored by Friends of Canadian broadcasting and conducted by Mainstreet Research on Oct. 8, had the Liberals way ahead there. It used similar technology but with a larger sample size (665) and resulting lower error margin (3.7 percentage points). That poll put 44 per cent of decided and leaning voters with the Liberals, 28 per cent with the NDP, 20 per cent with the Conservatives, and nine per cent with the Greens...

Mr. O'Neil then goes on to confuse the issue further by treating aggreators and riding-specific polls equally. The problem with that is that even the best of the aggegators, Eric Grenier, makes it clear that the aggregators become, essentially, only marginally better than chance when things are really close (scroll down).

And, as we noted yesterday, Vancouver Granville is one of the true exceptions in that it really is just too close to call for either the Dipper or the Liberal at this point. Regardless, it is still very, very clear that a vote for the Green candidate in that riding is a vote for the Stealth-Con.

Of course,  the thing that Mr. O'Neil does not delve into in any depth is the fact that there are numerous  other ridings in British Columbia where the Strategic Voting choice is already pretty much crystal clear, as we and others have also pointed out recently.


What is this really all about Alfie?

I mean, honestly, are the fine folks running the VSun actually suggesting that the seventy percent of us who want our country back should just roll over and play dead?


You know...

Paying attention is just too damned hard or something.


Interestingly, in his kicker, Mr. O'Neil quotes political scientist Richard Johnston as saying that no one should trust polling info that is more than a few days old when making their ultimate decision...I agree with that, especially in ridings where things are close...Perhaps more interestingly Mr. O'Neil failed to mention how a riding specific-poll in very close race helped save Esquimalt from the Cons in 2011...Imagine that!


#Elxn42: Hookers & Heroin....Mr. Harper's Final Smear?


It was a smear strate(r)gy that we saw the minions take out for a test drive a couple of weeks ago when they had Jason Kenney come to town and tell us that a vote for Justin Trudeau was a vote for hookers and heroin in your neighbourhood.

And, no, I'm not making that up:

...“He (Trudeau) wants to force communities to accept brothels,” (Jason) Kenney said. “We don’t think the values of most Canadians include having to put up with heroin injection sites imposed on their communities against their will, or to have brothels operating in their neighbourhoods against their will.”...



Why did they first trot this out briefly a couple of weeks ago and then let it go?

Well, it would seem that it gave them time to focus group/test it in the pocket markets (otherwise known as 'ridings' to the rest of us) where certain groups of 'new stock' Canadians live in Lotusland.

And, no, I'm not making that up either.

How do I know that?

Well, the following showed up in the print edition of Vancouver's Ming Pao newspaper yesterday:

Need more proof?

Well, how about a translation of the despicable, clearly Conservative-branded, ad courtesy the Globe's Mike Hager and his compatriot Andrea Woo's Dad:

Enough said?

There is also, of course, something that the minions count on...Which is the fact that the proMedia have a terrible, terrible time calling a spade a spade...Thus, pretty much everywhere you see whispered reports on this it will be about the 'anti-pot ad' which doesn't sound near as bad as what it actually is, right?
A wee digression....When I'm in full-on bloggodome mode as I have been over the last few days, I try to read and make notes at night so that I can then line up the posts on a timer the following morning before I go to work...This morning I was going to hold off  because I'v got an early meeting before teaching day (which run Mon/Wed/Fri in the fall)...But when the clock radio flickered to life this a.m. the first thing I heard was the latest audio ad from 'Mr. Reasonable and Modulated' which made me so damn mad that I got up immediately and started pounding keys...Sheesh...Now I'm going to have to cut the shower short....Again.
Hey!...For all of us amongst the 70% who need a bit of an energizer this last week before the polls open for real...Head on over and read Merv Adey's latest....It's a good one.
I'll talk to you again (way before) tomorrow.....Ha!


Tuesday, October 13, 2015

#Elxn42....Has Mr. Harper's (Un)Fair Elections Act Created Two Classes Of Citizens At The Polling Station?


It would appear to be thus.

How else to explain...




#Elxn42: Ewwwwwwwwww, What's That Smell....

...Desperation Perhaps?

Tondra MacCharles of the TorStar has the story. Here is her lede and a wee bit more:

Conservative leader Stephen Harper drew on the populist appeal of Rob and Doug Ford to shore up two GTA battleground ridings Tuesday as his campaign moved along at a snail’s pace compared those of his rivals.

Harper didn’t shake the Ford brothers’ hands, acknowledge their presence or hail their support publicly.

Yet Doug Ford vigorously defended the federal Conservative campaign, said he wouldn’t change a thing about it, and declared the large crowds at Liberal political events do not show the Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has momentum.

Just before Harper’s event got underway, Ford told reporters to pay no attention to the small crowds at Harper’s campaign stops in the past two days, which have not featured rallies...


...The Ford brothers’ appearance sparked more cheers from the gathering of little more than 100 partisan volunteers and organizers than the introduction of Etobicoke Centre MP Ted Opitz....


Is it possible that Mr. Harper has come to the realization that, while he desperately needs all of it, his base just may not be enough to hold on to Southern Ontario?


Why not just go all in with Robbie 'n Doug?

Heckfire, I bet they would both be great fun to have on the campaign plane 24/7 for the next week or so.

And, ya...The earworm (not to mention a good chunk of the lyrical hook) in the header is...Skynyrd.


Last Week In Clarkland...In Which Ron's Obviousness Demonstrates Why BC Liberal Government Malfeasance Never Ends In Lotusland.


Gary Mason wrote a column in the Globe last week about the official opposition's and the youth and child advocate's efforts to hold the Liberal/Clark government's feet to the fire over their egregious repeated, longterm bungling of the Ministry of Child and Family Development file.

And in so doing Mr. Mason demonstrated precisely why the local proMedia never holds this government responsible for any (and I mean any) of its words, deeds and/or actions.

To wit:

"...Many in the Liberals see (child and youth advocate) Ms. Turpel-Lafond as an extension of the provincial NDP; as a member of the opposition. While it is certainly not true, if you are a partisan inside the government ranks I understand the sentiment. The representative does not appear to be a fan of quiet, back-channel negotiating to get results, likely because she doesn’t believe it would accomplish anything. And she is likely right; sadly, governments often only react to stories they feel are damaging them in the eyes of the public..."


How, precisely, does this demonstrate that the real problem here is Mr. Mason and his ilk?


Firstly, Mr. Mason clearly indicates that the truth (i.e. reality) is that Ms. Turpel-Lafond is NOT an extension of the opposition and then, in the same sentence, he lets the Clark government off the hook for pretending she is.

And then, in (in same bloody paragraph!) he slags Ms. Turpel-Lafond for not working behind the scenes to make things better while simultaneously acknowledging that the Clark government will NOT work behind the scenes to make things better.

In other words Mr. Mason is acknowledging that Mr. Turpel-Lafond is doing her job and that the Clark government is most definitely NOT doing its job.

And yet, still, he writes as if they are both at fault.

You think I'm cherry-picking here?

Well then...

Let's move a little further down Mr. Mason's column, shall we:

"...Personally, I can appreciate the frustration on both sides of this divide. For instance, I can see why an incredibly smart, no-nonsense advocate such as Ms. Turpel-Lafond would grow tired with the often dawdling pace at which government moves and its preoccupation with balancing budgets at the expense of protecting vulnerable children.

At the same time, I can understand the Liberal government’s weariness with a children’s advocate who has bludgeoned it, at every opportunity, for nine years. There are many senior Liberals who believe her reports are as much about politics as anything else. Yes, they say, there are serious issues in this ministry that need to be addressed. But constantly trying to shame the government into action is the wrong approach, they argue in private..."

I mean, it's almost as if there are absolutely no black cards in Mr. Mason's mental deck despite the fact that, in reality (as he himself has pointed out), they are everywhere to be found.

In addition, it would appear that Mr. Mason has completely forgotten the work, words and deeds of a fellow named Ted Hughes that dates back to the first days of the BC Liberal government of Gordon Campbell and everything that has come since.


Now do you see where the real problem lies around here?

And, not to put too fine a point on it, but....Why the heckfire does Mr. Mason care what the Clarklandians argue 'in private'?....Hmmmmmmmm...Is it possible that he, like so many of his compatriots in the 'Club' has become beholden to the evils of 'insider access' for all of his 'important' information?


#Elxn42...Making The Hard (Anti-Con) Choice In North Burnaby Seymour.


Some of the folks that worked hardest to fight the pipeline on Burnaby Mountain have made the tough decision to go Dipper.

That includes well known Lotuslandian environmentalist Ben West, quoted here by the Burnaby Now's Jennifer Moreau:

..."(The NDP's Carol Baird Ellan) probably has the best chance of beating the Conservatives in that riding, but I got to say I find this election pretty stressful. I have a lot of love for (anti-pipeline activist and Green Party candidate) Lynne (Quarmby), and as a former Green organizer, I definitely don’t take it lightly to overlook Green candidates,” he (West) said, adding vote splitting is a concern...


It all comes down to riding-specific numbers.

Because the key here in Lotusland is going to be delivering non-CPC seats, regardless whose running in a particular riding which, it would appear, even the Keef now (kinda/sorta) seems to understand.


The last set of riding-specific numbers for Burnaby North Seymour which essentially show that a vote for the Green Party candidate in that riding is a vote for the Conservatives can be found here (scroll down)...Now...Should your non-Green vote really go Dipper given the rising fortunes of the Liberals...I think we'll need one last riding-specific poll before that call can be made... 


Monday, October 12, 2015

I'm Thankful That... We Still Have A (Kinda/Sorta) Progressive Tax System.

My thankfulness was aroused a few days before the Turkey and Pumpkin Pie long weekend arrived when I saw the somewhat bizarre Tweet, above, from one of the self-annointed 'protectors' of Canadian taxpayers in Lotusland.

Why bizarre?

Well, clearly, the Tweet was supposed to invoke some sort of outrage amongst a certain segment of our population.

But all I could think was...

 'Good on Canucks' goalie Ryan Miller!'

Because folks who are doing really well helping our least privileged citizens is the way things are supposed to work around here, right?

Not according to the good Mr. Bateman and friends, apparently:

VANCOUVER, BC: As the puck drops on another Vancouver Canucks season, so does another year of collecting income tax from the players. A new joint Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) and Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) study, Major Penalty for High Taxes, shows last year’s Canuck players paid $39.7 million in income taxes to the federal and BC governments...


...The 25 players on last year’s Canuck roster earned a combined $88 million CDN, meaning more than 45 per cent of their salaries would have gone to income taxes...


Good on the Canucks for helping out, eh!

Put another way, you fill find absolutely no outrage regarding that 45 per cent in this quarter.

Except, perhaps, to question why the marginal tax rate on our biggest earners isn't still at the level it was when the Neander (en)Thralls figure we were at our mighiest.



Why Would A Country's Leader Order Never Ending Sorties Knowing They Wouldn't Work?


Because, well....

The base:

President Richard Nixon believed that years of aerial bombing in Southeast Asia to pressure North Vietnam achieved “zilch” even as he publicly declared it was effective and ordered more bombing while running for reelection in 1972...

If you get my drift.


Sunday, October 11, 2015

What Would Be The Greatest Election Campaign Song Of All Time?


As I mentioned previously, we were at the Mulcair rally in Victoria yesterday and, as these things go, it seemed like everybody had a pretty good time.

And while I like Sam Roberts, and his tune called 'We're All In This Together', I'm not sure I wanted to hear it non-stop for the 20 minutes it took us to get out of the old Crystal Gardens on Douglas Street.

Regardless, as you might imagine, this got me to thinking about what makes a great 'campaign' song.

And, after much rumination about tunes like Clinton's 'Don't Stop (Thinking About...)', Obama's 'Don't Stop (Believin'...) and, of course, Reagan's aborted attempt to steal 'Born In The USA' without Springsteen's permission, in the end I came up with the tune at the top of the post.

It was written by Glen Hansard's (i.e. that 'Guy') former busking partner-in-crime, Mic Christopher.

It's about, as Mr. Christopher himself once said, trying to make every single day be our best day.

Which seems like a helluva theme for a campaign that puts people first.

Especially the 'people' that Mr. Beer 'N Hockey has been speaking to while he's been out knocking on doors (careful...Beer's missives are not for the faint of heart).

I honestly had a hard time coming up with other memorable campaign songs used in the country formerly known as Canuckistan...You all probably have a few.
And just in case you are looking for a lower keyed version of 'Heyday' shown at the top of the post, E and I have one for you...Here.


Saturday, October 10, 2015

We Went To See Tommy Mulcair Today And...

...A Carole James Rally Broke Out.

A long, long time ago my Dad used to take us to the Crystal Gardens in downtown Victoria every Wednesday after school.

To actually swim.

Which tells you how long ago that was.


Last night we took the ferry over to the Island to visit Pops for Thanksgiving weekend.

And, as we were waiting for the boat, the two E's and I got to talking politics just before we noticed Mr. Mulcair's campaign bus on the other side of the terminal.

Which is how we ended up inside the very same Crystal Gardens earlier this afternoon for Tommy and company's big rally.


The first thing I noticed when we got in the place was that I couldn't smell any chlorine.

The next thing I noticed was how scripted everything was and how much all the young kids running the show looked like they had just stepped off the set of Veep.

The best part?

When the teleprompter had been shut off Mulcair could speak without a script.

But for me it was Ms. James, the best Premier we never had, who stole the show with her simple introduction.

For all kinds of reasons, but most importantly because she managed to say simply and clearly what is most important on Vancouver Island, which is not to split the vote.

And she did so without mentioning she who must not be named with the National press present.

Pretty impressive I'd say.

Pops came with us...We spent most of the time reminiscing about what a creaky old place the Gardens was back when my brothers and I were kids...As for when Pops was a kid?....Well...He remembers when saltwater was piped into the pool...Imagine that!
And yes, there really were 1,200 people there...They had to turn folks away at the door on account of that pesky little red tape peddlar known as the Fire Marshall.


Will The Faux-Earthen CPC Levee Finally Break?


Took a thirty-six hour trip to the Center of the Universe last week.

Which meant I had to spend ten of those hours in the bloody cigar tube going back and forth.


When I got there late Wednesday the cab driver wasn't paying attention when he swooped down off the Gardiner Expressway and plunged us into a sea of stone-faced Leafs' fans exiting the ACC after their team's opening night loss to the Canadiens.

As a result, it dook him another half hour to travel the 15 blocks up the street to get us close to where the old Gardens used to be so that he could drop me off at what I consider to be just about the worst hotel in the Western hemisphere.


Well, for starters, I'm pretty sure they haven't steam-cleaned the carpets since Ms. Mitchell sang about some lug sitting in that particular hotel's bar (in my mind at least) who had 'a little money riding on the Maple Leafs'.


I spent all day Thursday running a meeting a stone's and/or a Joe Cannonish throw from the Skydome with a bunch of fellow science geeks whose job it is to give strategic advice to a non-profit group that, like so many others, is doing its very best to pick up the slack for all that the extremist currently running our fair country has wrought.

And normally this group is very conservative, not in the ideological sense but rather in the truly Canadian 'let's-not-rock-the-boat-so-that-we-can-do-our-best-to-spread-things-around-as-much-as-possible-to-help-the-most-folks-we-can'  sense.

But not this time.

Because on this particular day just about everyone around the table began to really pound it while voices rose to a fever pitch with the well-founded concern that it is very possible that we could lose an entire generation of young, up-and-coming fundamental/basic scientists given the Harper government's never ending ratcheting up of a policy that is clearly designed to kill 'curiosity-driven' research in favour of a 'pick-the-winners' approach in certain applied fields that can be commercialized.

Put another way, it's a 'Crony-Capitalism Hijacks Science' approach to doing things which probably comes as no surprise to anyone who is actually paying attention.


Don't get me wrong.

I'm all for trying to move good, important and useful discoveries towards something that can be used by everyone for the collective, or even the commercial, good (and, no, I don't think those two things are necessarily mutually exclusive).

But when you go all in down that road at the expense of the actual discovery-based research, which is what that curiosity-driven stuff is all about at it's core...


Then you snuff out the ability of all the young punks with all the great new ideas and all the drive to do the real thing.

Which, of course, is what Mr. deAdder's cartoon at the top of the post is all about.

So, forget all about that voice modulated-reasonableness coming from the Extremist's ad-buys these last few days before the election.

Because the key for the entire country is to break the House-of-Cards Levee that has been carefully constructed by the Extremist and his henchmen on Oct 19th.


Spent the cigar tube ride home smack-dab in the middle of a gaggle of young middle school musical bandish-type kids on their way to Australia...For the first half-hour I was the dour old 'Get off my lawn!' guy in their midst...But by the time the drink cart came down the aisle their good natured-enthusiasm was infectious enough that I abandoned the thesis I was trying to read and watched the fantasmagoric 'Love and Mercy'...The movie itself was great, but watching Brian Wilson himself sing the title track as the credits began to roll was truly spine tingle-inducing. 
Sure, the song above is from Mr. Zimmerman...But my favourite footloose, fancy-free/buskerized version is....Here (wait for the incredible cameo due at the end).