Saturday, September 11, 2021

B.C. Ridings In Play?....Post Election Day Update (before Mail-In's)



Post-Election Day Update for each riding below...
Update Sat Sept 18th at bottom of post


Mostly, I don't give much of a hoot-in-heckfire about national or even regional polls because, in my opinion at least, it's riding-specific polls that matter most. Unfortunately, we, the peons, have seen little of those.

Regardless, with eyes half-closed due to the lack of hard contemporaneous data, here is a list of what I think are ridings in British Columbia that are in play based mostly on past performance:
Nanaimo: This one looks to be a triple toss-up between Con, Dipper and current Greeniac MP Paul Manley. The Lib does not appear to be a factor...Post EDay Update: Dipper Barron up by ~1,000 votes over Con; former Green MP Manly down by 2,700...Need to wait for Mail-In count to be sure - 8,800 ballots ordered - who knows how many got to folks on time to actually get them in?...PPC difference maker? (1,800 votes, plus).
Kootenay-Columbia: Current Con MP Rob Morrison is the clear favourite but the Dipper, and former MP, Wayne Stetski is a long shot with a shot...Post EDay Update: Con Morrison wins by 4,700 votes over Stetski...PPC takes an additional 4,300 votes in heartlandia (7.1%).

South OK-West Kootenay: Most predictor thingies have this strong for current Dipper MP Cannings. However, there was less than a one point split between Cannings and the Con last time, so this is one where the overall O'Toole National/Regional strength could be a factor in the Con's favour out in the kinda/sorta heartland. It could come down to Dipper GoTV...Post EDay Update:Dipper Cannings wins by 2,500...That rightsided heartlandia strength went PPC with 4,600, plus (7.7%) votes that just might have been the difference.
West Van-SunSeaSky: Two way race between Lib MP Weiler and the Con. Neither the Dipper nor the  Greeniac can win, but their numbers are significant such that together they could get enough votes to split and allow the Con to win....Post EDay Update: Lib MP Weiler wins by 2,200 votes over Con...Dipper Avi Lewis does well with 26%.

Burnaby North-Seymour: Supposed to be a two-way race between current Lib MP Terry Beech and Dipper Jim Hanson. Was a three point victory for Beech over Swende R. last time, but now the urban regional Singh bump could help. Interestingly, given the pipeline terminus in the riding, the Greeniac doesn't look to be a factor...Post EDay Update: Lib MP Beech wins going away by 4,700 over Dipper Hanson.

Coquitlam-PoCo: This was essentially a Lib/Con dead heat last time with current Lib MP McKinnon squeaking in with less than one percent victory. Looks like the Dipper is slightly competitive or, at the very least,  a vote gatherer, here though...Post EDay Update: Liberal MP McKinnon wins going away by 4,000 votes over Con.


PoMo-Coquitlam: Dipper has a real shot in what looks to be a three way race between Lib and current Con MP Nelly Shin...Post EDay Update: Looks like Dipper Zarrillo will win up by 2,000 votes over Con Shin...PPC might have contributed to spread (1,700 votes) but not the decider, at least pre-Mail-In count. 

Pitt Meadows - Larry Walker's Ridge: You won't find this one on many in play-type lists but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Dipper has a shot because it's an historical Lib/Dip split riding that let's the Con, currently MP Marc Dalton, win up the middle....But I reckon this could be one where the regional leader/party polls favouring the Dippers could maybe, just maybe, turn things a wee bit orange...Post EDay Update: Con MP Dalton will win...But Dipper Klapwyk was strong second only down by 2,400 votes with 31.8%...Lib distant third this time out. 

Cloverdale - Langley (is a?) City: Could be the opposite of Pitt Meadows-MR in that here a rising Dipper could take enough votes from the previously close Libs to help the current Con MP Tamara Jansen win again in what should be a relatively close Con/Lib race...Post EDay Update: Still close, Lib up by 1,100 votes on Con MP Jansen...Here the PPC might be difference with 2,500 votes...The Dipper faded into low show position down by 10,000 - had this one way wrong.
Delta: It's a toss-up between the Con and current Lib MP Carla Qualtrough. Can't help wonder if the PeepsPartingOfCrazySea candidate just might shave off just enough to keep this one in the red...Post EDay Update: Lib MP Qualtrough wins going away over Con by 4,000...PPC not a factor.


Van-Gran...Post EDay Update: Still too close to call..Lib Noormohamed up by 230 votes over Dipper Appadurai...Mail-ins could definitely matter here...Con a fading third 3,200 votes behind.


South Surrey-WR...Post EDay Update: Con MP Findlay will hold on to win, up 2,300 over Lib and former CampbellInc/Clarklandian Hogg.


Richmond Centre...Post EDay Update: Lib Miao up by 700 votes on longtime Con MP Alice Wong...Definitely need to wait on Mail-Ins here.


Voting time is upon us...If you haven't already completed your mail-in ballot advance polling is now open!...General admission Monday!...Now just waiting for the Mail-In's to be counted.

And we heard from Beer...As you might expect, he is off in the the Albertalands trying to elect Dippers!



e.a.f. said...

thanks for "opinion". Have wondered for some time if the Cons had a chance in Nanaimo because in one bi election, the Cons came in second. The other reason I think the Cons have a shot is the demographic has changed in Nanaimo, we have a lot of Albertans and people from the lower mainland living here. They don't suddenly change their political views when they come here. On the two streets where our new house is, there were 5 former Albertan families.

Keith said...

One I will be looking at is Elizabeth May in Saanich – Gulf Islands.

She won the seat from conservative Gary Lund and has held on to it for quite a few elections. However, she essentially was the green party and I’m not so sure she can hang on as her constituents are no longer voting for a very popular party leader, but now a very minor back bencher. The greens are a shambles of their own making and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her lose the seat along with the green in Nanaimo to the dippers. Who will beat her? haven’t a clue, it could go anywhere but I wouldn't be surprised to see it return to the conservative.

RossK said...


Very interesting point about the demographic splits in Nanaimo.

Walked around downtown last summer while we were waiting for the ferry to Gabriola - it does seem like it's 3 or 4 different places at once. And I'm sure there are all kinds of changes happening out on the edges as well, including all the olds to the North up Lanzville way and the fine folks on Gabriola that actually live there.

NVG said...

'On the two streets where our new house is, there were 5 former Albertan families.' That's amazing e.a.f., that you would 'know' they were new, or was it the five single license plates that gave them away?

We've lived at the same address for 45 years; the neighbours to the east moved in two years before us. To the west and across the street 25 years each. We've been 'lucky', ageing, not having to learn, remember, the names of new neighbours.

What I have noticed, a lack of signage on the lawns, whereas busy street intersections aplenty. Changing times to twitter and other mediums to advertise who is best to be an MP.

e.a.f. said...

NVG, the area is new and we were one of the first purchasers to move in. Some did arrive with Alberta plates, some not, but given I tend to say hello to new neighbours and chat, we'd talk and I'd ask where they were coming from. Nanaimo has a lot of "new" people and housing is at a premium. In south Nanaimo there are a number of new subdivisions and mostl have two bedroom suites in them. A lot of them remind me of the "Vancouver Specials with big garages attached to the houses with large double drive ways, which increases the density of neighbourhoods.

Scotty on Denman said...

Thanks for your list, Ross—especially getting an inkling about any riding instead of provincial and national polls.

Riding polls are hard to find, mostly party candidates’ in-house polling which is closely guarded.

Mistaken tactical voting probably inadvertently resulted in a JT bandwagon effect. He did start way behind but roared past Mulcair and Harper (maybe it was that promise to end FPtP—ill-considered by both him and those who voted Liberal on the basis of this extremely low-info, seeming off-the-cuff and, as it turned out, unworkable promise). Some very popular NDP incumbents also went down which, since the Dippers had a much clearer electoral plank, was conspicuous and I attributed to first-timers attempting tactical voting. Not to belittle young voters—I love ‘em. I hope they keep turning out.

Young voters can be proud they helped get rid of the horrid HarperCon regime.

2019 confirmed the CPC was still in decline. Until this election was called, O’Toole had taken its popularity even lower. He’s added about nine points since. Blip? The Cons don’t even trust each other: how can they be trusted to govern?

2021 is as important. Covid aside, this one will tell us if the pseudoCon phenomenon will continue to decline. It’s irredeemable but, like a rabid skunk cornered, it’s still dangerous and capable of doing damage even in its throes. That snarling foaming at the mouth ain’t all from Covid, but also a symptom of impending demise the pandemic has exacerbated, obscuring the more gradual process (from the zenith of neoliberal globalization about 9/11 and George Dubya, with Harper joining the slide in 2006, steepening with the CPC defeat in 2015, to the Stuka dive-bombing with tRump in 2016, and reaching terminal velocity with Kenney in 2019). Moon’s Day next should tell how much longer the neo-right millstone will drag down progress on the pressing issues of our time.

The last six years is like turbulence after a storm. We know which kites to fly and how, but unsettled weather makes it hard. How can the Greens be so lacklustre when environmentalism is consistently in the top two concerns? What’s up with all these three-way races when the political right has been so thoroughly discredited? Why do the large majority of Canadians want socialist policy but the NDP not avail? I’m hoping we can at least glean some of the answers to these questions when this contest is over, and then plot a more direct path toward better policy and lives.

I have peeps in Vancouver-Granville—where Jody declined to seek a second incumbency as an Independent. We all Dippers but my poor girls over there have, after a lot of soul-searching, resorted to tactical voting to keep the Conservative out. NDP had an excellent candidate in Mira Oreck, but last time put a young Extinction Rebellion candidate into this very middle-of-the-road riding. This just in: polls now include the NDP in a three-way toss-up! My kids are gonna love that!

No 3-way in our old Comox Valley riding or our new riding which straddles the mid-Island, NDP incumbents Rachel Blaney and Gord Johns, respectively, both excellent, hardworking MPs.

Here on our little Island is almost entirely plastered with orange Gord Johns signs, surprisingly few Greens (well, I guess maybe not so much)—but the odd purple sign of the PPC: these are hippie anti-vaxxers (yes, we have them...) The candidate’s wife came to ask us for signatures to get her husband on the ballot for the PPC. I said I’d be happy to sign because he’ll help split the vote on the right; she nodded happily: “yes, we don’t expect to win government, but, if we split the vote, we can send a message to Ottawa!” (My squeeze and I just rolled our eyeballs...Okaaaaaaaaayyyyyy....) He made it on! Yay!

I’m voting in person on Moon’s Day. It’s a block away. I like to vote in person to see how many residents I’ve never even seen before. There are zero properties for sale here—and less to rent: housing, affordable or other, is a big issue.

Good luck, my friends, and stay safe!

RossK said...

Thanks Scotty--

Will have a look at those V-Granville polls.

I went to the last couple of hours of Advance Polls smack, dab in the middle of middle Lotusland - General Brock School at 32nd and Main...Little gymnasium with 8 foot high hoops - had to work hard to resist the urge to prove that I still can't jump....Was more busy than a regular polling day...I'm like you, I like to seek the people.


Anonymous said...

South OK-West Kootenay, NDP's Canning wins again.

Two years ago it was by ~800 votes over the cons with the PPC getting ~1,600 votes (68,000 total votes), this time ~3,600 votes over the cons with the PPC getting ~4,600 votes (~60,500 total votes).

I think if Kenney had been an effective leader after the shotgun wedding of the right in Alberta, there would be more impetus to bring the PPC back under that tent. The clash of egos, and seeing Kenney getting whipsawed between the practical right and the ideological right will prevent it from happening in the near term.

e.a.f. said...

well that was an interesting evening. Nanaimo was a three way split when I turned off the t.v. The NDP was leading with a few votes, but the conservatives were right behind, with the Greens back in third. Now we wait for the mail in ballots to be counted.

Looks like much of Canada has not changed its mind since the last election so was spending the $600 Million worth it? An exercise in democracy is always worth it, but from another point of view, not much changed so we could have waited another 18 months and saved the money.

My take on it is, Trudeau is up to something which he needs a majority for to claim all the glory or the other parties who might support him usually won't go along with it or will push for more than the Liberals will accept.

RossK said...

Keith-- EMay wins big over con by 7,000 votes.

Anon-Above--Agreed the PPC was likely a difference maker, or at the very least, made the mail-ins irrelevant.

e.a.f.--One thing that was problematic/not worth it was the way the mail-ins were run...One of our kids sent in her request as soon as possible...the ballot arrived yesterday.


NVG said...

We were going to do the honourable 'thing' and vote in person. However, that morning, we had to self-isolate.

RossK said...

Sorry to hear about that NVG--

Hope you all are doing OK.


NVG said...

We'll only have to wait another two years, that is two covid years, and then the Liberals will spend another $612,000,000 to try and get a majority. What a waste.

Anonymous said...

If this is going to be Trudeau's last term, he may stay the full four years and make a deal with Singh to push through his legacy legislation, whatever that will be.

In my opinion the Cons will continue to implode in the next four years. O'Toole will be fighting to stay in his position or the party elects a more right wing leader. Either way, it won't help the conservatives.

A lot may depend upon COVID and if it remains the disease it is now. If it does, Trudeau may come to the point where he deems a guaranteed income is a good way to go. The only problem he would face is Singh may want a higher income level than Trudeau is prepared to give. Singh wants a national dental care program--good idea, but its not signature. National Prescription Plan will be objected to by drug companies, but it sure would be a "signature" and the NDP would support it but since the Sherman's were murdered I don't think a national prescription plan will be in the cards.

Anonymous said...

Richmond BC anomaly?