Can The Latest European Resurgence Of COVID Cases Be Explained?

LikeVirusesPublicHealthEvolves

TooVille

Covid cases are surging in Europe again.

And that includes Western Europe where vaccination numbers, over all, have been strong.

So.

Can this latest European surge this be explained?

Eric Topol of the Scripps Institute, who has demonstrated his bonafides around here before, thinks that there is (at least) a three part explanation which he wrote about in a recent piece for The Guardian.

Number one is the issue of vaccination rates:

...(T)here (is still) a large proportion of unvaccinated individuals (including children and teenagers) in each country, and only countries such as Spain at 80% and Portugal at 88% that fully vaccinated their total populations have set a high bar and have thus far withstood the continental trend of rise in cases. Noteworthy is Belgium with 74% fully vaccinated and one of the hardest-hit countries in the world, now at 79/100,000, currently 10th highest caseload globally. That alone tells us 74% isn’t enough, and that prior Covid (without vaccination, what some refer to as “natural immunity”) is unreliable for representing a solid immunity wall against the Delta variant. In fact, it has been projected for Delta that any country needs to achieve 90-95% of its total population fully vaccinated (or with recent Covid) in order to have population-level immunity that covers, providing relative protection, for the others...

Number two is the issue of waning immunity, post vaccination (and why in BC that switch to mix and match post AZ vaccine dose #1 was likely a very good thing, population-wise). Topol also makes the case that boosters should roll out for everyone based on the Israeli data that we have discussed here before (this is also the plan in BC):

...(T)here is evidence of waning of immunity on top of the hyper-contagious Delta strain. Even though much of Europe got a later start in vaccination, a recent study showed that with the Astra Zeneca vaccine the decline in anti-spike antibody occurred quite early and there was a clear relationship between antibody levels and breakthrough infections. Decline below the anti-spike antibody threshold of 500 U/ml was reached at 96 days for AstraZeneca’s vaccine compared with 257 days for Pfizer’s. The impact of waning, and the opportunity to restore very high (~95%) effectiveness of mRNA vaccines (specifically Pfizer/BioNtech) with booster (third) shots has been unequivocally proven from the Israeli data. Yet the adoption of boosters, even in the highest-risk groups such as age 60 plus, has been very slow...

Number three is the issue the issue of the relaxation of mitigation measures (and it is here that I worry about most in both present, full house event BC as well as in future,  household small gathering BC):

... (T)here has been relaxation or abandonment of mitigation measures. Countries such as Denmark and Norway completely reopened and have seen resurgence of cases since that occurred. Throughout the world, the profound pandemic fatigue has led to the irresistible notion that the pandemic end is nigh, that masks, distancing, and other measures have run their course, essentially that enough is enough. It is hard to imagine fighting a foe as formidable as Delta that a vaccine-only strategy can be effective. We’ve seen a dramatic improvement in Japan, with full return to baseline after their worst outbreak, by the combination of high level of vaccination and the continued use of masks and mitigation measures...

The other thing that Topol points out is how we in (North) America previously ignored or, at the very least, reacted slowly to what happened in Europe when the first big viral outbreaks occurred in March of 2020, the alpha variant emerged in late 2020, and the delta variant emerged in the summer of 2021.

So.

Will we ignore/react slowly to what is happening in Europe this time as well?


_____

Dr. Topol is, in my opinion, the best Twittmachine follow when it comes to COVID public health and research updates.

.