Thursday, October 18, 2012

Cummins Coup, ctd....What No Smear Site Could Ever Do.

ATaleOfTwoPolls
InTheFieldVille


Remember that original 'dissident' letter that Alex Tsakumis published on his blogsite way back on Oct 5th when he broke the story that started all the flap in BC Conservative Partyland?

You know, the letter that was apparently signed by and/or agreed to by 21 BC ConParty Constituency Association presidents calling for John Cummins to step down, a number which soon thereafter began to shrink and is now down to, according to Keith Baldrey the other day at least, six.

Well, one portion of that original letter, as duly noted by Mr. Tsakumis, went like this:

...John Cummins has taken us to the foot of the mountain but he is not able to take us to the top. We are therefore asking John Cummins to resign immediately...

And the very next section of the complete letter, which CKNW's Shane Woodford posted up a short time afterward,  went like this:

...As CA Presidents please voice your opinion and respond to this email with a simple "Yes, we agree that John Cummins should resign immediately" and help us stop the NDP from having a landslide victory in May...

All of which is fair enough, I suppose.

After all, the first section of the letter quoted above suggests that the popularity of the Cummins-led BC Conservatives had stalled. Thus, this rationale could be used as a reasonable justification for calling for Mr.  Cummins to step down because he wasn't going to win in May of 2013.

But the second section, in my opinion at least, could be open to myriad interpretations.

Particularly if it was the percerption that support for Mr. Cummins and the BC Conservatives was in free fall by, say, September (ie. just before the Cummins Coup Conflaguration began in early October).

But was it?

In free-fall in September, I mean.

Well, if you look at the latest, most up-to date tracker from the fine folks at the Mustel Group, who apparently were out in the field in September*,  it would be hard to conclude that there was any such free-fall happening at that time (note the very end of the thin, blue Con line):


Heckfire,  looking hard at those Mustel numbers it could even be argued that, particularly if you ignore the  May 2011 number as a potential outlier, things were actually still on the upswing for Mr. Cummins et al. through September.

Now.

Contrast the Mustel ticker above with the one that was released by Angus Reid the other day whose latest numbers were generated AFTER the Cummins Coup Conflaguration was already in full swing:**



Do you see what I see there for the BC-Cons in October,  a trend the Lotuslandian pro-Media quickly seized upon, with a vengeance?

Sure you can.

'Nuff said?


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*Bernard von Schulmann, who noticed the Mustel offering before I did, had some concerns about when the latest polling was done and what the methodology was given that it was not made explicitly clear on the group's website (see our discussions in the comments).....Mr. von Schulmann's caution is well-placed....Regardless, however, it does negate the fact that Mustel did not note a drop in September.....If you look closely at AReid's blue line, you could easily make the same argument...I will agree, however, that the AReid line does make the case that the Cummins'-led Cons may have stalled at the base of the mountain...
**The latest AReid polling was done Oct 9-12th... By that time the proMedia 'round Lotusland had already started calling the BC Con Party a  combination clown/gong show, or worse...

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3 comments:

Bernard von Schulmann said...

I wish Mustel had released the details of their poll, this is the second time I have seen them do this.

I do not know the sample size, I do not know the actual dates in the field, and in the case of the BCCP this could be very relevant.

Former Mustel employee Barb Justason came out with her second provincial poll. http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=3049

BCNDP 48(+3)
BC Liberals 28(-3)
BC Greens 13(+5)
BC Cons 9(-5)

small sample of only 539, in the field Sept 24 - Oct 1

Grant G said...

Mr K...I won`t get too technical, however, (good stuff by the way)..

Mr. AGT`s latest tussle with others who have opposing views, us conspiracy tin-foil hat wearing types, AGT Launched the post below...

as you can see I didn`t give the link address, merely the title of his post..

{The Conspiracy Theorists in BC Know the BC NDP Numbers are Somewhat Soft: A Fear on the Left that the Right Will Unite}

Don`t you see Ross?...Now unless that AGT title was used in vain, or anger, the title implies, to at least one angry blogger that...

The NDP vote is soft, and if you read the actual story, AGT implies that 10% of the Orange vote could vanish in a blimk, especially if say "Dianne Watts" takes over the BC Liberals..

SO, is it just AGT, the man who first presented the impending John Cummins coup that thinks that?..

Or are there more back-room boy(and girls) that came to that conclusion......One more thing Ross K..

Before AGT wrote that post about the soft NDP vote, he had a little tussle with Laila, and left this comment(before that post)

{
A. G. (Alex) Tsakumis says:
October 17, 2012 at 9:57 am

Crackpot conspiracy theories, that do not auger, in any way, shape or form, with reality.

Just a fear by the left, that the right might unite. A pathetic case put together by Bill Tieleman and lazy on your part, my dear, considering how talented you’re capable of being–and usually are.

Very disappointing.

The NDP are so far ahead, a merger on the right will only take seats from Adrian, but not enough that he’ll lose.

A silly story, made even sillier by the picture book.

Notwithstanding, I do wish to thank you for the laugh}

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So bear with me, AGT was angry, and to possibly deflect from us tin foil hat wearing conspiracies thinking you-know-what, he writes a comment claiming the NDP can`t be caught...

And all of a sudden, a few hours later, he writes an article(possibly out of uncontrolled anger) that makes the assertion that indeed the NDP can be caught because their vote is soft, and all that`s needed is Dianne Watts to ride in on her silver horse and save the day for those so-called free enterprise parties..

Good Day Mr. K

RossK said...

Thanks Bernard--

Have been riding the cigar tube this week and had missed the Justason poll....Regardless, the thing I find interesting about comparing the Mustel and AReid tracks are the trends and the timing.


________

Grant--

I do not disagree with Mr. Tsakumis' assertion that a LibCon fusion could be a whole new ballgame....In fact, I have been wondering about the possibility of machinations emerging to force such a fusion since the spring....Thing is, given Mr. Cummins' anti-fusion stand, well....

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