Cummins Coup, ctd....What No Smear Site Could Ever Do.

ATaleOfTwoPolls
InTheFieldVille


Remember that original 'dissident' letter that Alex Tsakumis published on his blogsite way back on Oct 5th when he broke the story that started all the flap in BC Conservative Partyland?

You know, the letter that was apparently signed by and/or agreed to by 21 BC ConParty Constituency Association presidents calling for John Cummins to step down, a number which soon thereafter began to shrink and is now down to, according to Keith Baldrey the other day at least, six.

Well, one portion of that original letter, as duly noted by Mr. Tsakumis, went like this:

...John Cummins has taken us to the foot of the mountain but he is not able to take us to the top. We are therefore asking John Cummins to resign immediately...

And the very next section of the complete letter, which CKNW's Shane Woodford posted up a short time afterward,  went like this:

...As CA Presidents please voice your opinion and respond to this email with a simple "Yes, we agree that John Cummins should resign immediately" and help us stop the NDP from having a landslide victory in May...

All of which is fair enough, I suppose.

After all, the first section of the letter quoted above suggests that the popularity of the Cummins-led BC Conservatives had stalled. Thus, this rationale could be used as a reasonable justification for calling for Mr.  Cummins to step down because he wasn't going to win in May of 2013.

But the second section, in my opinion at least, could be open to myriad interpretations.

Particularly if it was the percerption that support for Mr. Cummins and the BC Conservatives was in free fall by, say, September (ie. just before the Cummins Coup Conflaguration began in early October).

But was it?

In free-fall in September, I mean.

Well, if you look at the latest, most up-to date tracker from the fine folks at the Mustel Group, who apparently were out in the field in September*,  it would be hard to conclude that there was any such free-fall happening at that time (note the very end of the thin, blue Con line):

Heckfire,  looking hard at those Mustel numbers it could even be argued that, particularly if you ignore the  May 2011 number as a potential outlier, things were actually still on the upswing for Mr. Cummins et al. through September.

Now.

Contrast the Mustel ticker above with the one that was released by Angus Reid the other day whose latest numbers were generated AFTER the Cummins Coup Conflaguration was already in full swing:**

Do you see what I see there for the BC-Cons in October,  a trend the Lotuslandian pro-Media quickly seized upon, with a vengeance?

Sure you can.

'Nuff said?


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*Bernard von Schulmann, who noticed the Mustel offering before I did, had some concerns about when the latest polling was done and what the methodology was given that it was not made explicitly clear on the group's website (see our discussions in the comments).....Mr. von Schulmann's caution is well-placed....Regardless, however, it does negate the fact that Mustel did not note a drop in September.....If you look closely at AReid's blue line, you could easily make the same argument...I will agree, however, that the AReid line does make the case that the Cummins'-led Cons may have stalled at the base of the mountain...
**The latest AReid polling was done Oct 9-12th... By that time the proMedia 'round Lotusland had already started calling the BC Con Party a  combination clown/gong show, or worse...

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