LivingInVille
When we moved back to Lotusland in the mid-90's we were lucky enough to rent a bungalow in almost Dunbar for $1,200 a month.
Two years later the off-shore owners told us they were going to tear it down unless we wanted to buy it for $255,000.
We decided they were crazy to ask that much and instead moved into a row house out on the free held edge of campus where we tried to build an equity co-op.
The latter venture gained us a whole lot of friends but it didn't work out in the end thanks to the (very) predictable machinations of GordCo, Inc.
And so, in the end we bought a house in the near-Eastern Townships for a whole lot more money than those fine folks wanted for the tear down in Mackenzie Heights.
Which is where we've lived ever since.
Meanwhile, back over on the westside of town:
...A stream of offshore buyers seeking a safe haven for their capital has contributed to the incredible inflation of the west side’s housing values and to the thinning out of residents, says Andy Yan, head of Simon Fraser University’s City Program.
“You’ve lost households, and you’ve lost people, on the west side, neither of which is good. It’s becoming a weird place, where you have a certain amount of empty and under-occupied homes … The west side has roughly the same number of dwellings it once had. But there are fewer people. That’s what makes this not work out,” said Yan.
“There’s been a shift change. The normal cycle of a neighbourhood, in which older households move out and younger households move in, has seized up,” said Yan, citing his analysis of 2016 census data, which reveals thousands fewer people are now living in Kerrisdale, Arbutus, Dunbar and to some extent Point Grey...
The thing is, judging by the rapidly rising European SUV quotient in our neighbourhood, I am not convinced that that the hollowing out is not moving eastward across the city.
Two years later the off-shore owners told us they were going to tear it down unless we wanted to buy it for $255,000.
We decided they were crazy to ask that much and instead moved into a row house out on the free held edge of campus where we tried to build an equity co-op.
The latter venture gained us a whole lot of friends but it didn't work out in the end thanks to the (very) predictable machinations of GordCo, Inc.
And so, in the end we bought a house in the near-Eastern Townships for a whole lot more money than those fine folks wanted for the tear down in Mackenzie Heights.
Which is where we've lived ever since.
Meanwhile, back over on the westside of town:
...A stream of offshore buyers seeking a safe haven for their capital has contributed to the incredible inflation of the west side’s housing values and to the thinning out of residents, says Andy Yan, head of Simon Fraser University’s City Program.
“You’ve lost households, and you’ve lost people, on the west side, neither of which is good. It’s becoming a weird place, where you have a certain amount of empty and under-occupied homes … The west side has roughly the same number of dwellings it once had. But there are fewer people. That’s what makes this not work out,” said Yan.
“There’s been a shift change. The normal cycle of a neighbourhood, in which older households move out and younger households move in, has seized up,” said Yan, citing his analysis of 2016 census data, which reveals thousands fewer people are now living in Kerrisdale, Arbutus, Dunbar and to some extent Point Grey...
The thing is, judging by the rapidly rising European SUV quotient in our neighbourhood, I am not convinced that that the hollowing out is not moving eastward across the city.
OK?
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The pull quote, above, is from Douglas Todd's excellent two part opinion piece recently published in the Vancouver Sun.
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6 comments:
And THAT's why the BC Liberals Lost the election!?
I do think the flurry of new taxes has had a positive impact. A bit hard to tell because super low interest rates and rising domestic income inequality are driving housing sectors even as foreign buying is dropping. The empty homes tax is also clearly leading to absentee owners renting out. In short, I am optimistic that the curve has flattened. and further action on money laundering should see foreign ownership dropping. Now we just need a massive government housing initiative to deal not just with homelessness, but also renting, Co-ops, etc. Here too I'm cautiously optimistic. Eby is an excellent choice for this portfolio. here's hoping....
NVG--
Certainly a contributor.
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Glen--
In D. Todd's piece, Andy Yang from SFU (who's done some really great data mining on local housing; the maps on neighborhood changes in population are his) made a point about the relatively low overall income levels in Vancouver being completely unmoored from housing prices. Do you agree with that?
I agree with your assessment of D.Eby - but have heard nothing about Co-Op support. Is there something on the horizon provincially and/or federally?
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It used to be that Kitsilano was one of the few neighbourhoods in the country where income and education weren't correlated. But often, wealthy immigrants claim almost no earned income. and this can skew the income level down. I totally agree that the housing market became unmoored from domestic income. But I think we should see that correct over time as these taxes and regulatory measures play out. We do have 40k or so of new in-migration every year to the lower mainland (a city the size of New west is added every year)So this, combined with super low interest rates healthy income growth in the top 10-20% provides constant pressure on housing stock. so,first step is to get supply and demand balanced and I think that's starting to happen.
I have heard that the government is going back into the co-op business. It has been a pretty cautious government, however, so I'm not clear how big the program will be. I think government's and people underestimate the scale of the problem and what needs to happen to fix it. hopefully, Eby can drive the government to really make a difference.
Excellent to hear Glen - thanks.
(btw - I first became interested in Eby when he came seemingly out of nowhere and just missed being nominated by Vision for a Vancouver city councillor slot in 2008 - if he had won I would have bet money on him being our 1st post-Gregor mayor)
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My home town of London England. Same thing, different currency. Donate to the power brokers and presto, just like B.C.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8546531/Londongrad-laundromat-Putin-allies-used-London-wash-illicit-Russian-money-report-warns.html
https://harriet-george.com/2020/01/07/game-money-laundering-london/
All that money sloshing around in Vancouver or wherever, lots of economic activity and governments at all levels aware of the problem and results, but don’t really care as it all looks good and they don’t have to do a thing except quietly borrow, sell off and suck the current assets dry to keep the rest of the economy going. ( B.C. liberals for 16 years), ( labour and conservative govts. in Britain). At least the current NDP are doing their best after the horse has left the barn.
We are fed a steady stream of real estate stats by a lazy compliant media, strategically put out by various real estate entities to enhance their bottom line convincing the hoi poloi that increasingly higher real estate prices is the economy, not the result of a successful economy where everyone can afford to get a shot. Similar to record stock markets and record lines at the food banks.
When governments at all levels are led by, voted in and supported by people “that know the price of everything but the value of nothing” to paraphrase Oscar Wilde, these results ensue.
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