Wednesday, September 30, 2020

BC Election Update...The (Unkown) Ghost In The Horse Race Poll-Making Machinery.

TheNumbersMadeThem
DoItVille


By now you've likely heard about the 'Dipper Madness' numbers from that Ipsos poll commissioned by the fine folks at Global TeeVee:

...A new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News suggests the BC NDP has substantial leads in voter preference and leadership, and in every region in the province.

The NDP has an 18-point lead over the BC Liberals just one week into the campaign, the poll suggests.

The BC Liberals are next at 33 per cent support, followed by the BC Greens at 12 per cent....


And we agree that they are, indeed, hard to ignore.

Heckfire.

Based on the seemingly insurmountable leads across every demographic as well as in the riding-rich regions of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland, you can even see how the BC NDP braintrust came to the conclusion that they 'had' to call this fall's snap election if they saw anything even remotely similar in their own internal numbers:

However, there is one Ipsosian number that seems to have escaped serious attention and or scrutiny so far:

...These results exclude the 31% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference...


Don't know about you, but that 31 percent sure seems like an awfully big, potentially horse race changing, number depending on which way things break down the backstretch.

So much so that I would not be surprised if the good Mr. Wilkinson were to soon promise a free puppy for every household by Thanksgiving and pumpkins full of gold-plated chocolate bars for everyone to hand-out as tax- and deficit-free trickster treats on Halloween.

Or some such thing.

OK?


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There's something else telling in those Ipsos #'s also, which come from the list of most 'important' issues that voters are apparently/allegedly considering...Climate change and the environment do not even crack the top five, which likely says a thing or three about those things that are lacking in Mr. Horgan's current policy initiatives.



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1 comment:

Danneau said...

Another election, but some parallels. Saw a pie chart showing 2016 voting patterns, with 98M Clinton votes, 95M Trump votes and a third slice of the pie showing 108M "People Who Better Quickly Learn To Give A Shit". Current US election is surely a nose-holding exercise, and reminds me a little of some of the constraints at work here in BC (ballot goes in the mail this morning). Also, let's recall 2013 when we talk about polls, and meanwhile be those folks who have great steaming piles of defecatory matter to offer up.