Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Campaign Day 15 (LaterNight).....Angus Reid's Latest Poll Is Out....Game On!


That's right!

According to Angus Reid, working for BellGlobeCTVetceteraMedia, the British Collumbia election is a statistical dead heat:

Halfway through the B.C. election campaign the race for the leadership is tighter than ever.

The BC Liberals and New Democrat parties are separated by just three percentage points, according to a new Angus Reid Strategies/CTV poll......

Which is within the margin of error.

What is most striking is the difference in preference based on gender:

"...The poll shows a growing gender gap in the B.C. election. While nearly half of women (48 per cent) are planning on voting NDP, only 35 per cent are planning to go with the BC Liberals.

The leading party seems to sit better with male voters. Forty-eight per cent polled said they'd stay under Campbell's leadership, as opposed to the 31 per cent who said they'd go NDP..."

Regardless, get ready for the Libs to try and drive the negatives on Ms. James given this:

"...None of the leaders of the major parties are proving particularly popular with voters. Only one in three polled approved of Gordon Campbell. This number fell to 27 per cent when asked about Carole James..."

The good news is that she can't go much lower which tells you something.

Finally, why is this poll so much different than the latest one from, say Mustel, which had the GordCons up by 17%?

Well, maybe it's this:

....Angus Reid Strategies conducted an online survey of 822 adult British Columbia residents from April 24 to April 26....

Why does the 'online survey' methodology mean anything?

Well, presumably, is decreases the reliance on old fuddie-duddies who actually pick-up the call that comes in on the land line which is is the standard polling methodology.

And as everybody knows, old-fuddie-duddies are much more likely to be kinda/sorta conservative.

Especially, apparently, if they are old fuddie-duddies with a Y-chromosome.


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