Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Budget Day In Snookland....It's The Crown Assets Stoopid!


I have read Mr. Tim O'Neill's superwide-margined report on the BC government's revenue projections and there is absolutely nothing new there.

Essentially, the entire $25,000 we spent is contained in Table 1...


Notice what you don't see there...

You know, that thing that is supposedly going to be the last second revenue saviour for Mike and the Mechanics.

The thing that Bruce Ralston correctly called 'revenue speculation' this morning.

It is a thing also known as  'crown assets sales'.

Sales that may, or may not, have actually happened.


What will they tell us they are going to sell?

The Endowment Lands at the far western edge of Lotusland?

Don't be silly.

They can't do that because his Gordness already gave away the heart of Pacific Spirit Park, for free, to facilitate a billion dollar condo-jacking.


Then how about a lake or two?

Maybe Christina and half an Arrow that nobody but a few folks in the Hurtland even know about?

Or maybe the Strait of Juan de Fuca, because, after all, the American's own half of that body of water already anyway?

I know!

How about a Mountain?

You think I'm joking?

Well, actually, as noted last November in the wake of Mike and the Mechanics' faux 'quarterly budget update', I am most definitely not.

Joking I mean.

Because, even then, you could smell the set-up from miles and miles away.....


Thursday, November 29, 2012

Why Should We Believe Anything In The '2nd Quarter Budget Update'?


...(O)ne of the weird tidbits in the feckless Finance Minister's press release is the following sentence:

...The projected (provincial budge) deficit for 2012-13 is $1.47 billion, a $328-million increase from the First Quarterly Report due primarily to the change in the completion date of the sale of the Little Mountain property...

What the heckfire is that 'Little Mountain' insertion all about, I wondered?

So I went looking for the actual 'number'....

And this is what I found in the so-called 'forecast changes' ledgers attached to the actual report (numbers in millions):

Two hundred and ninety-two million underwater in Quarter #2?


Is that just one of the rabbits that will be suddenly pulled out of a hat ..... (in the spring of) 2013 just as the election campaign kicks into high gear?


Anonymous said...

"I have suggested that, in
one area of the forecast, additional prudence be incorporated
into the natural gas revenue projections both for the upcoming
fiscal year and for the out‐years of the planning horizon. The
recommendation was not based on any particular expertise I
have regarding that sector. It stemmed from the fact that this
particular revenue stream had been persistently overestimated
in recent years and faces some significant downside risks
." - page 21, B.C. BUDGET 2013

and not a peep about forestry revenue? Forestry revenues have fallen short for the last five years in a row (or 5 of the last 6 if you prefer equivalents)

great pains are taken in Table 2 (page 19) to show how the gas revenue estimates failed, but what of forestry?

for $25K this is pretty thin gruel

RossK said...


Clearly, the NG revs were a redherring on Andro with a little Deer Antler spray added for good measure....Why?...Well, they were already exposed on that one given the BS projections this time last year that were 'corrected' by de Jong in November...Thus, they decided to go hog on those ones (the entire last portion of O'Neill's thin gruel focuses on them) and then say...Look! Everybody! We actually are (not in)competent!

The latter is actually a line, with only a little shading, that Mason bought in his column this morning.

Regardless, I agree with you...Will be interesting to see if any timber license sales will show up in the crown asset swindle later today...I have a feeling they might want to keep those hidden until, say, May 12th at about 11:58pm.


motorcycleguy said...

This is important. Tell me what I do not know about Christina and Arrow. Girlfriend's parents have a cabin there and I frequent the area a lot. Of course, I also frequent the Sunshine Coast a lot and knew nothing of the IPP's that are about to industrialize Narrows Inlet. I really, really, really used to think I was of average intelligence and able to keep up with current (no pun intended) events.

Kim said...

Funny you should mention Forestry Revenues. It reminded me of an interesting article by Ben Parfitt of CCPA.

"According to several sources who have been briefed on the legislation, the bill would give the provincial cabinet powers to grant forest companies de facto private control over public forestlands without first having to notify or consult with the public.

Instead of companies enjoying rights to log set volumes of trees on public forestlands, companies would gain dramatically expanded powers to log trees on defined areas that in effect become their own semi-private fiefdoms."


North Van's Grumps said...

Remember what Former Finance Minister promised... by April 2014?

..... Falcon said government will run a $968-million deficit for the coming 2012-13 fiscal year, but said it hopes to return to balance by 2013-14 — the year it is legally obligated to do so.

To do this, Falcon said his government will cancel a drop in the small business corporate income tax rate, keeping it at 2.5% instead of dropping it to zero as had been planned for this coming April.

He added that if the fiscal situation worsens, the government will increase the general corporate income tax rate to 11% from 10% on April 1, 2014.

Brian Hutchinson at the National Post had this to say... about the BC Liberals and Finance Minister Falcon:

But the status-quo budget was a sleight-of-hand. In November, the B.C. government acknowledged its deficit outlook had been wrong. Really wrong.
The forecast was revised to $3.1 billion, adding to a provincial debt that is now approaching $60 billion.

On Tuesday, a new finance minister will produce a B.C. budget for the fiscal year ending March 2013. Will Kevin Falcon get his figures right? Probably not; government budget forecasting isn’t science, but a dark art, a rule that applies in B.C. as everywhere else. Mr. Falcon cannot paint a pretty picture, because the landscape is bleak. Sliding revenues, looming HST repayments of some $2.2 billion, more spending pressures from the big departments; these are a few of his most pressing challenges.