Stopping All Cons: A Comprehensive Guide To Strategic Surge Voting In British Columbia

AllTheSmartVotesThatFit

GovernorGeneralVille

Final Dispatch 9:00pm Sunday May 1st: This is it....All the specific details, with explanations, can be found below...The short story is that 18 seats are ripe for Strategic Con-Stopping in BC if the 50% of NDP and Liberal supporters that are willing to switch their vote actually do so...Please remember - 50% of Liberal and NDP supporters together represent essentially ALL the Con vote which means that they can do absolutely anything they put their collective mind and effort to Monday...For example, if folks in Ontario and Quebec get smart and stop the Con Majority first, we in Lotusland can actually put an end to Mr. Harper's rule forever (thanks to the good Reverand for that very fine last minute thought!)...Now, for those progressive Dippers in B.C. who think this is all crazy, silly and counter-productive,please understand that even Carole James' former Chief-Of-Staff sees the real-politick merit in 17 of the 18 choices on the list below.... OK?

Surging Dippers (Do Not Vote Lib or Green - they cannot win)

1) Fleetwood Pt Kells - Fernando, NDP

2) Newton N. Delta - Simms, NDP

3) Surrey North - Sandu

4) Pitt Meadow-Maple Ridge - Speirs, NDP

5) Burnaby-Douglas - Stewart, NDP

6) Van Kingsway - D.Davies, NDP

7) Kamloops-Thompson - Crawford, NDP

8) Kootenay-Columbia - Shmigelsky, NDP

9) Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - Garrison, NDP

10) Nanaimo-Alberni - Maartman, NDP

11) Van Isle - North - Leonard, NDP

Strategic Liberals (Do Not Vote Dipper or Green, they cannot win)

12) Richmond - Peschisolido, Liberal

13) North Van - Noormohamed, Liberal

14) Van Centre - Fry, Liberal

15) Van Quadra - Murray, Liberal

16) Van South - Dosanjh, Liberal

17) West Van-Sunshine - Veniez, Liberal

Strategic Green (sorry true progressives, but neither the Dipper nor Lib can win)

18) Saanich Gulf-Islands - Elizabeth May, Green

*Please note, it is this one that the former CJames Chief-of-Staff, Ian Reid, does not agree with us on, not because he doesn't agree about the numbers, but because he just believes it is a longterm political mistake to do so.

Final Note: All the Other Seats in B.C are locks be they Dipper or Con, so you are free to do whatever you want...I must note, however, that commenters have made a reasonably persuasive case that the NDP candidates in the two Con-Lock Prince George seats and the Con-Lock Abbotsford seat may be surging into way, way, way longshot contention that would be greatly aided by heavy Strategic voting.

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THE LONG-FORM OF THE SURGE/STRAT RECOMMENDATIONS IS BELOW

So - this is it.

We've looked at a whole lot of numbers, polls, projections and recommendations, especially from the fine folks over at ProjectDemocracy.ca.....

And we have come to the conclusion that British Columbia's progressive voters can have their Surge and, when required, vote Strategially too, to drive the Stephen Harper-led Tory/Conservative/Alliance/Reform/Whack-A-Doodle Coalition to the bottom of the deep blue minority sea where it belongs.

Please, by all means feel free to Wurlitzer this thing far and wide (small URL to paste in Emails is: http://bit.ly/ihqIo1 ). As we said before, the stakes are just too high to let the politics of destruction, division and voter suppression destroy our country - OK?

We have three categories:

SURGE - these are the ridings where the NDP 'surge' in popularity over the last week looks to be putting the Dipper over the top (or at the very least in real contention), which means that small 'l' liberals, and maybe even red tories, should take note here to lay off their party's candidate.

STRAT - here is where the Dipper cannot win, and where both Dipper and/or Green Votes could defeat the Con if they are supplied to Lib....Many real progressives hate this... But I am of the opinion that we are forced to do this because of our ridiculous first-past-the-post system and the gravity of the situation.

LOCK- here, no matter what you do the winner has already been decided so you can do whatever the heck you like.

Oh - and one last thing....Except for Saanich Gulf Islands and the Locks, you are most definitely/positively WASTING a chance to stop a Con if you vote Green in any other riding, especially VanCentre (sorry A.Carr) - OK?

Here we go.....

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SOUTH OF FRASER & THE VALLEY

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Fleetwood-Port Kells: The incumbent just may be the worst Con MP West of Cornerbrook which is, of course, N. Grewal. Believe it or not, the surge now has the Dipper Fernando in 2nd and rising...So, while it's a long shot, the only chance looks to be to lay off the Lib Dhanoa and the Greeniac Saldanha who looks to be holding a few thousand votes that could help put the Surge over the top to Stop the Con.....Recommendation: Nao Fernando-NDP.

Newton-North Delta: OK, this is one of those ridings where the Surge really matters (and where proMedia reports that were based on polls from early-to-mid-last week are likely wrong). Thus, the small 'l''s and the RedT's should seriously think of laying off their Lib incumbent Dhaliwhal because the surge looks to have pushed the rising Dipper Sims into the lead of a tight three-way race that includes the Con Fallon. This is another one where the doomed Green vote of 3K could also be a big factor if it would just get real/really progressive to help Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Jinny Sims-NDP (seriously)

Surrey North: A real Surge success story has vaulted the Dipper Sandhu over the Con Cadman. Make no mistake red-folk, the Lib can NOT win here. Go with the surge to stop the Con Cadman.....Recommendation: Jasbir Sandhu-NDP

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: You won't find this one amongst the possible 'swing' ridings from the proMedia folks, but it looks like the surge has the Dipper Speirs within striking distance of the Con Kamp. However, there aren't a lot of Lib votes to be found here so the Greeniacs really, really have to go with the Surge to Stop the Con here....Recommendation: Craig Speirs-NDP.

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

Richmond: It's a real long shot for the Lib Peschisolido to beat the Con Wong here. But make no mistake, the Dipper Jackaman and the Green Wolfe have no chance - but they do have enough ballots to Stop the Con if their supporters vote strategically....Recommendation: Joe Peschisolido-Liberal

CON-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Abbotsford: Con Ed (notso)Fast there fella is a lock.

Chilliwack-FraserCanyon-Hope: Ditto Chuck Strahl's Con-Son Mark.

Delta-Richmond East: John Cummins old riding still a Con-Lock for K-L Findlay

Langley: Mark Warwara (and/or the cardboard version of that Jared guy from Subway) in a Con-Lock.

South Surrey-Whiterock-Cloverdale: Uber-lock for Con Hiebert.

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VANCOUVER/LOWER MAINLAND NORTH

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Burnaby Douglas: Retired Dipper Bill Siksay just managed to beat the Con Leung by 800 votes last time out. This time, in the last week, new Dipper Kennedy Stewart the PoliSci guy looks to have opened up a surge-assisted lead of a few thousand over the Con.....Recommendation: Kennedy Stewart - NDP

Vancouver Kingsway: The surge has really aided the incumbent Dipper Davies. So why don't I have him in a lock here? Well, I live in this riding and the rising property values, not to mention the associated increase in European SUV's all over the streets, really scares me - luckily the non-Prog vote is reasonably well-split between the Con and Lib. But look, there is some Green strength in this riding that could be a real spoiler if folks don't realize that to stop the Con you have to go with the surging Dipper.....Recommendation: Don Davies-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

North Vancouver: It's neck and neck between the Con Saxton and the Lib Noormohamed. The Dippers and Greens have no chance, but together they do have 5 times the votes needed to beat the Con. Make no mistake, strategic voting can win this riding. Therefore, if you want to stop Stephen Harper you MUST lay off the NDP and the Greeniac and vote Liberal in this one..... Recommendation: Noormohamed - Liberal

Vancouver Centre: Even with the surge, Dipper Shillington is just too far back and, because the Green Adrienne Carr is potentially 7,000 votes strong also, you must not choose either to make sure the Creme de la Creme's Head Girl, Con Jennifer Clarke, does not wiggle up the middle to beat Dr. Fry..... Recommendation: Hedy Fry - Liberal.

Vancouver Quadra: The Harpie here is British Columbia's original 'Stealth' Con, Deborah Meredith. And while she came very, very close to former provincial Lib 'Earth, Wind and Fire' Minister Joyce Murray in the 2008 Bye-Bye, the StealthCon faded a bit in the last general when all the old money, small 'l' Libs started paying attention. Still, rumour has it that huge Con $$ have gone into this riding and, make no mistake, neither the Dipper Elkins or the Greeniac Shaw can come close....Recommendation Joyce Murray-Liberal.

Vancouver South: The Lib, Ujjal Dosanjh, was in real trouble here to the Con in 2008. However, a number of real and seriously troubling gaffes by the Con Young have given Dosanjh a wee bit of breathing room this time around. Regardless, this is another one where, even with the surge, the Dipper cannot win. Thus, to be absolutely sure you will help stop the Con you must vote strategically here (even if you, like me, hold Ujji partially responsible for the disaster we still have provincially 10 years after he jumped ship). Recommendation: Ujjal Dosanjh-Liberal

West Van-Sunshine Coast: Sorry folks, but only the Lib Veniez has a shot at the Con Weston. And here's the thing - the Strat matters here because there really are more than enough potential Dipper votes that could be used to instead beat the Harpie. So, if you wanna stop the Con this is one riding where you have to turn your back on the surge, take a deep breath, and lay off the Dipper (and you Greens do the same - vote grabber BWilson is not running this time, but you still have up to 3000 ballots to deliver here, OK).....Recommendation: Daniel Veniez-Liberal

LOCK (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Burnaby-New Westminster: Dipper Peter Julian is a lock, with almost double the nearest candidate who is the Con.

NewWestminster-Coquitlam: Dipper Fin Donnelly, who first took Dawn Black's old seat in a Bye-Bye, is crushing all comers, so much so that there aren't enough Greens and Libs put together to get the 2nd place Con Dilworth even halfway there.

Vancouver East: Once again, East Van Halen is a lock for Dipper Libby Davies

Port Moody-Westwood-PoCo: Con Moore in a lock....Uggggh, especially folks with autism....Dipper Ireland in solid second, but way behind, even with the surge.

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INTERIOR/NORTH

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Surge has Dipper Crawford right there with the Con, and there are more than enough Lib and Green votes there to Stop the latter in their tracks....Recommendation: Michael Crawford - NDP

Kootenay-Columbia: Incumbent Con Abbott has left the building. There has been a surge, and Tony Martinsen, who knows his numbers, thinks the Dipper Shimelgsky has a shot there. The thing is, all I've seen, hard numbers-wise, so far is a greater than 10K lead for the Con Wilks. Thus, with only 6-8K Lib/Green votes combined it means that all non-Dippers who want to stop the Con have to lay off and let the surge take over to push this long shot, which I originally had in a Con-Lock, over the top.....Recommendation: Mark Shmigelsky-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):

None...Nada.....Libs are essentially persona non-grata....Look what the Provincial LINO's have wrought....

LOCK (Vote As You Wish as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Southern Interior: Surge has Atamenanko safe (we think; this one might get moved up if it looks problematic - thing is, there aren't many non-Con votes to pick up.

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: It's like Berkeley North up there for Dipper N.Cullen (which is a good thing)

Cariboo-Prince George: ConLock

Prince George-Peace River: ConLock even without incumbent - sorry.

Kelowna-Lake Country (they've seceded already?): ConLock

Okanagan Times Two: Both are grape-soaked Con-Locks, unfortunately.

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VANCOUVER ISLAND

SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca: This is the former seat of multi-party member Keith Martin, most recently a Lib, but it even went Reform with him back in the day...It was assumed that it would be the Lib Szpak that would chase the Con DeSouza who lost to Dr. Martin by a whisker in 2008. But then the good folks at Project Democracy commissioned a riding-specific poll by Oracle and it confirmed a massive surge that has the Dipper Garrison as in solid second and the only chance by quite a large margin to beat the Con. Thus, you have to lay off the Lib here to help kick the Blue Scourge off the Island completely.....Recommendation: Randall Garrison-NDP.

Nanaimo-Alberni: This is a bizarre, old labour riding that drifted populist Reform with longterm Con incumbent Lunney. But, maybe even more so than in Esquimalt described above, the crushing Orange Surge has the Dipper Maartman in serious striking range. No one else is within 15,000 votes of Lunney, so lay off them and go with the Dipper to Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Zenaida Maartman-NDP

Van Isle North: This is a see-saw between the Dipper Leonard and the incumbent Con Duncan. The important thing here is that there are essentially no Lib votes to get, although there are a few thousand leaning Green. Looks like it may come down to the Green rump and, perhaps more importantly a strong GOTV effort by the NDP in Comox/Courtenay/Campbell River to take fullest advantage of the surge .....Recommendation: Ronna-Rae Leonard-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold, And Maybe Even Blow, Your Nose To Stop The Con):

Saanich Gulf Islands: This one pains me, but really and truly, neither the Dipper Loring-Kuhanga nor the Lib Hetherington have any shot to beat the Minister for Hockey Rinks and Roundabouts (but never, ever RoboCalls), Gary Lunn. Thus, if you want to stop the Con this is the one place where progressives must vote Green. For me, it's short term pain for potential longterm gain....Recommendation: Elizabeth May Green

NDP-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):

Nanaimo-Cowichan: Dipper is runaway a lock.

Victoria: Dipper Savioe is widening her signficant lead, and it drives the upper crust of Uplands crazy...Ha!

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The following are all the Updates from earlier on Sunday, newest first back to oldest...it's mostly real inside baseball:

Updates: Sun 7:30pm - Darn...Somehow I disappeared VanIsle- sorry...It's Dipper Surge in VanIsle North, Nanaimo-Alberni and Esquimalt Juan de Fuca with Green May in Saanich and Isles...Will fix later... Sun 7pm- Lots of great input from readers. Travis F.and Tony M tell us there is some on the ground reports of Dipper support seriously rising in Abbotsford and the two Prince George ridings. While I still can't take 'em out of Con-Lock-Land it is worth considering to go all in NDP in all of those ridings given that no one else has a hope in heckfire. Old friend Spartikus points us back to a Mike Watkins post that there are Lib internals in Van Centre which say that Green A.Carr has a shot there, which is fair enough, but I just do not see the externals no matter how much A.Coyne wants it to be.... Sun 3:00pm- Incredible numbers from Angus Reid, via Project Democracy, that 50% of declared Liberal and Dipper supporters, combined, are willing to consider Strat Voting to protect the Surge and Stop Cons...That could really lead to huge riding-specific swings that is NOT in most standard polling done previously.Wow......Sun 2:00pm - And now welcome to Bigger E's Facebook friends - if you want to Stop the Cons in VanQuadra and VanCentre you have to lay off the Dippers and Greens and hold your nose while voting Liberal...VKingsway and VSouth are a little different - details below...Of course, EastVanHalen is still a lock for DipperDavies....Sun 1:30pm-Welcome folks arriving from VSun, every single riding in B.C. is subjected to our (not-so)patented Surge/Strat/Lock analysis below....1pm Sun - ElectionPrediction Project is now with us, picking surging Dipper Sandu over Con Cadman in Surrey North, so please, do the best of your abilities, lay off Lib&Green...Noon Sun - The venerable 'Bouquets of Gray' has put together a similar Surge and Strat Guide To Con-Stopping for the good folks of Ontario, here... 10am Sun - Election Prediction Project now calling Esq Juan de Fuca for Dipper Garrison. Regardless, you must lay off Liberal AND Green there to Stop the Con as we point out below...And for those in the Kootenay-Columbia we have now moved you out of Con-Lock-Land and into longshot SurgeVille for the Dipper Shmigelsky, which means that you must all lay-off anything but Orange to stop a Con, OK?... 9am Sun - Old friend Holly S. points out that checking out where the 3rd party Ads are going could give folks an idea about where the Cons figure they are in trouble in Lotusland and VanIsle...Travis F makes a good case that we may have underestimated the potential for the youth vote to assist the surge (just hope it doesn't drift Green anywhere by Saanich/UVIC and the Isles)....8am Sun - fixed the Kootenay-Columbia call (thanks Tony M.), put it in long-shot SurgeVille...

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Canada....Meet Stephen Harper's Base

LeeAtwaterLives!

RobFord'sGTAVille

Do not avert your eyes - we all need to see and hear this.

Because this is no phantom smear that is worth less than zero.

This is real.

And it really matters given the question put to Mr. Harper by the CBC's Mr. Milewski was about constitutional matters vis a vis failing minority governments.

And can someone tell me why it is only Andrew Coyne that is calling out the Con Operatives on this crap?

Not to mention the even more putrid crap that is being peddled/wurlitzered by David Adkin et al. that no one else in the proMedia will denounce as the tripe that it is.

Sheesh.

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Saturday Morning Surge Update In Lotusland

IgnoreAllSmears

VoteVoteVoteVille

Spent the morning looking hard at all the numbers in British Columbia over at ProjectDemocracy.ca. It's really amazing the gains that the NDP has made in the last week.

In places where they were way out, like Fleetwood Pt Kells, they are now closing and within striking distance....In places where they were not the strategic choice like Esquimalt JdeF they now clearly are....And even in places where it was a little dicey, like Burnaby Dooogie Howser, they are now way out front....

I'll have a riding-by-riding breakdown up later today.

And for those who need a little Power with their Glory, not mention glorious spring Saturdays in Lotusland....Check out this new one from Shona Tucker and The Drive-By Truckers:

Drive-By Truckers perform Where's Eddie on Sound Opinions from WBEZ on Vimeo.

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And To Think, I Once Respected David Akin

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AllTheCodswallopThatFits

WorseThanFoxNewsEverWasVille

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Update at bottom of post.....

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Who knew these cretins would go the 'Make the bastard deny it' route filled with shite when the going got tough:

"He was sunk in despair. He was desperate... he called his equally depressed campaign manager and instructed him to.....accuse his high-riding opponent (the pig farmer) of having routine carnal knowledge of his barnyard sows, despite the pleas of his wife and children... His campaign manager was shocked. 'We can't say that, Lyndon,' he said. 'It's not true.' 'Of course it's not,' Johnson barked at him, 'but let's make the bastard deny it.'..."

Hunter Thompson, on Lyndon Johnson's 1948 Congressional Campaign.

And who knew that Akin, a man I once thought honourable based on direct experience, would be the hired quisling who would be fingered to start cranking the Wurlitzer.

Mein gott!

What will Kady think?

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Update: Midnight Friday Apr 29th, it turns out we now know what Ms. O'Malley thinks....Or....At least....Asks.

Double-Secret SmearUpdate: 8:00am Sat. Apr 30th.... The Smear just hit 500 news stories....Not in English, where it is only at 257...But in....French.

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The Poll Is In....Dippers Surging In Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

AllTheOrangeThatFits

RaceRocksVille

The folks at ProjectDemocracy.ca, the strategic voting site, which is pretty much non-Dipper/Lib partisan when it makes a recommendation on how to beat the Con in a particular riding, went out and raised money to run a riding-specific poll in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca to get a better handle in what is going down there now that the Lib Keith Martin has retired from the seat once held by the old Dipper war horse round here, Dave Barrett.

And the results are in....If you want to beat the Con DeSouza, who came within an eyelash of winning last time, and who is the projected leader now, you have to lay off the new Liberal and go with the Dipper Garrison.

OK?

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Our thanks to a decidedly non-partisan poll watcher named Paul for pointing us in the right direction a couple of days ago.

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Why You've Gotta Surge AND Strat To Stop The Cons In Lotusland

WhenDippersMetLiberals

PointingNorthVille

From Eric Grenier's latest analysis, this morning, over at ThreeHundredEight:

"....In North Vancouver, the Conservative incumbent Andrew Saxton is now projected to retain his seat. It had been held by the Liberals in the projection for the entire campaign. Also in British Columbia, the New Democrats are now projected to win Surrey North, a Conservative riding. Jasbir Sandhu is the NDP candidate there...."

So.

What that means is that you've gotta ride the Surge with the Dipper Sandhu in Surrey North to stop one of the original StealthCons, Dona Cadman.

But, if you live up against the mountains in North Van and you want to stop the Con, you have to lay off the Dipper Charrois and go with the Lib Noormohamed.

OK?

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Will try and be back with more comprehensive summary of Lower Mainland later (sorry, heavy work day today)....Still waiting for that Esquimalt Juan de Fuca riding poll to be released over at ProjectDemocracy so that my Mom and Dad can know whether to Surge or Strat come Monday .....

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Can You Have Your Surge And Strat-Vote Too?

AllTheDippersThatFit

MinorityReportVille

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Update: Thursday Apr 28/11 @ 5pm, at bottom of post

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Yes, you pretty much can.

If you live on Vancouver Island that is.

For example, in Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Alberni, two ridings where Conservative incumbents can potentially be sent packing, the only legitimate second choice is the Dipper. Even without the surge this really is the case on the North Island where things are tightening to the point of a statistical dead heat between the new Dipper Leonard and the skin-of-his-teeth-in-'08 Con Duncan. It may come down to Dipper GOTV efforts in Comox, Courtenay and CRiver (and the get out the vote thing could very well be greatly affected by all this surge talk).

In Nanaimo-Alberni it's a tough uphill climb for the Dipper Maartman to beat the longtime Con Lunney, especially given the weird, almost inexplicably deep Reform roots there that have become so entrenched that there is very little soft Lib vote left to dig out. In fact, it looks like it will have to come from a bunch of folks that went Green last time if the Surge is going to be successful. Although, I've gotta believe that there are still a goodly number of older folks in those parts that might just have a lingering soft spot for labour in their hearts (if not their paid-off mortgages) that could peel away some of that weird, populist backlash vote from the Cons.

Victoria and Nanaimo-Cowichan both look to be Dipper locks, especially with the surge, although I'm a little worried about some Lizzie May spillover that could become a bit of a a problem given that the Greens showed some strength in both ridings last time.

Which brings us to Saanich Gulf Islands....Sorry Dippers, this is where you don't get to eat Con Cake yourselves (and in fact you must NOT). You've got to let Lizzie do it, as she looks to be in a statistical dead-heat with the Minister of Hockey Rinks and Roundabouts, but never, ever, Robocalls, Gary Lunn.

And finally, the one where the surge really matters - Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. In fact, it matters so much that this is where I think libs (the real small 'l' ones, I mean) may just have to hold their noses and go Dipper in the end. The Con DeSouza barely (i.e. less than a 100 votes) lost to longtime multi-party incumbent Dr. Martin last time out. But Keith is gone now which puts him on the same footing as Dave Barrett who once held this riding as well. The recent polls for Dipper Garrison and Lib Szpak are all over the place, but Greg Morrow, who is always very careful, has Garrison rising. So, given all that if ever there was a riding to both go with the Surge and be Strategic too, this is the place anybody that wants to see a Harper Majority stopped, this is where you have to go with the NDP to stop the Con. And what's even crazier, this (and/or Van Isle North) could be the last riding in the country to declare which could make things doubly exciting if the Cons are somewhere in the 153/4 range around 11pm Eastern/8pm Pacific on Monday night.....Did you hear that Mom and Dad?

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Update: Paul Willcocks, in the comments, mentions the very important fact that Project Democracy, a StratVote focussed site, has commissioned a poll in Esq(notFrenchy)Fuqua and will drop it tomorrow/Friday....That should help solidify things a bit either way for potential small 'l' nose holders or, perhaps, even Dippers if the surge has actually already passed.

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Speaking of RoboCalls.....I wonder if there will be any calls to LibLeaners from the bowels of the Rainbow Warrior claiming that Lizzie was actually born in New Zealand to parents from the French Foreign Legion and is thus is technically a Peace-War Coalitionist who can't be trusted to successfully navigate the new PatBay-Airport Turnpike/NotHockeyRink on a Nuclear-Powered Moped sanx HandleBar FauxRocketLaunchers while screaming that old Ozzy tune about eco-friendly, acid-hopped Trains from the Sabbath days.....Naw, no one would ever try something as Crazy as that......Right?

Next Up....It gets a little tougher, with first call Surge/Strat recommendations in FraserValley/LMainlandSouth....Stay-tuned.

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Strat vs. Surge....Which Side Are You On?

Poll-O-Rama-Llama

DingDongVille

If you are interested in what is really going on as Canada's 41st Federal Election campaign progresses and you are not stopping by Eric Grenier's place "ThreeHundredEight.com" regularly you are really missing out.

Now.

While you might have issues with Eric's methodology for analyzing and assessing polls in an effort to track things nationally, regionally and locally (i.e. riding-by-riding) you will really appreciate how comprehensive and thoughtful he is, regardless.

In addition, the comment threads contain a lot of stuff that is actually insightful and informative. This is facilitated by the fact that Eric himself often wades into the threads to clarify points of contention. This is the stuff of true blogging that is almost entirely absent from the swollen rivers of total gibberish that flow through the proMedia election sites.

Anyway, as you can imagine, Eric has been spending a lot of time this week trying to figure out if the NDP 'surge' is for real and, even more important, what it will really mean come Monday.

I found the following paragraph, from today's post, most interesting:

".....With the Conservatives around 38% and the Liberals and New Democrats spliting the vote relatively evenly between them, as Innovative and Nanos show, we can expect the Tories to pull a majority government out of the mess. But if the Conservatives are instead at 34-35% with the NDP nipping at their heels, as EKOS and Angus-Reid indicate, then we can expect a re-run of the 2006 election with the New Democrats taking the place of Paul Martin's Liberals....."

Now, here's my take.

Either way, both scenarios are within the margin of error in most National polls that have landed so far this week.

Thus, again, I don't think we way out here in Lotusland can afford not to vote strategically, regardless the 'surge', if we want to do our best to ensure that all that is really Canada is not dismantled and destroyed by an unleashed Stephen Harper over the next four years.

Which means that if you live in Saanich and the Islands and it looks like Elizabeth May has the best shot of winning come Sunday....

Well?

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Lotuslandian Strategic Voting....How It Works, Pt 1.

StoppingHarpageddon

OneStratVoteAtATimeVille

Well, it's just seven days to go until the General.

Which means it's time to kick off Strategic Voting Week here in Lotusland*.

How could this Strat-Voting thing actually work?

Well, we are going to show you with the next few posts.

And then, later in the week we will make comprehensive recommendations for those ridings where it does really matter (and those where it doesn't too, so that you can let your conscience run wild).

So, for our first primer, we're going to have a look at the riding of Vancouver Island North.

Here is our Strat-Vote recommendation from 2008:

Vancouver Island North - Vote Split Alert!!!!.....Greeniac Stone is a solid third but, like Liberal Fleischer, can NOT win.....Con Duncan is very, very close and/or maybe even slightly ahead.....Thus, please, please, please, do not hand one to Harper here..... to Stop The Con go with the Dipper Bell.

And here is what actually happened:

Canadian federal election, 2008
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	John Duncan	26,166	45.78%	+5.17%	$76,173
	New Democrat	Catherine J. Bell	23,681	41.43%	-0.29%	$80,622
	Green	Philip Stone	4,563	7.98%	+3.14%	$12,309
	Liberal	Geoff Fleischer	2,391	4.18%	-8.65%	$2,026
	Independent	Jason Draper	361	0.63%		--
Total valid votes/Expense limit				100.00%		$109,871
	Conservative gain from New Democratic Party		Swing	+2.73

Now, to give the folks of the North Island their due, many of them did their best to Strat-Vote last time out because there was a big drop in Lib support from 2006. The trouble was, some of that soft Liberal vote actually went Con. And there was a Green gain as well, which tipped the balance that gave it to the Con.

So here's the thing....If you live in Courtenay, Comox, Campbell River, or Alert Bay and you don't want to be ruled by Harpies for the next 4 years, if you vote Green or Lib you are helping to doom yourself to it.

The choice here is stark because neither the Greeniac nor the Lib have a hope in heckfire of reaching 10%.

And that is how Stat Voting works.

OK?

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*Now, for my Dipper friends who are bound to give me a hard time for deciding to once again go down the Strat-Vote Road given big Jack's 'surge', please note that I have started with one that is designed to help an NDP candidate. Obviously, future examples and recommendations will involve taking away Dipper votes. My half-a-mamma-mea-culpa rationale for doing so can be found here.

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Harpageddon....How Close Is It, Really?

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...Really, Really Close.

Greg Morrow, who is both a clumper and a splitter when it comes to analyzing polling data, has the story.

****

Now......

So far I have kept quiet on the business of 'strategic voting' this time around.

Why?

Because I do want a government where the Dippers have real influence.

But even 25% and a major break through in La Belle Province for Jack Layton means nothing if Stephen Harper rubs Atlantic Canada into the boards, high sticks Ontario in the teeth, and then scalps Lotusland with a Wayne Makiavellian swing of the stick to the cranium to get that beat-'em-in-the-alley/politics-of-division-and-destruction-assisted majority.

Why all the hyperbole?

Because I am convinced that a four year Harpageddon style election cycle will do irreparable harm to the fabric of this country, its people, and its institutions.

Thus, I will soon start up another version of how to vote strategically in Lotusland, much like I did in 2008.

Stay tuned.

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In the meantime, Fern Hill, who has been slugging it out in the no holds barred StratVote Octagon the past week or so has a bunch of very useful linkology up here.

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BC Place....Who Pays For The $600,000,000 Big Tent Now?

HeadsTheyWin

TailsWeLoseVille

"PavCo relies on its sole shareholder to provide any capital investments in property to provide any capital investments in property, plant and equipment when required, to assist with operational funding"

PavCoFinancial Statements, 2010 (pg 10)

Which is all fine and good.

But.

What happens when that sole 'shareholder' tells it's 4,554,085 bankers (ie. the people of British Columbia) that there is no money left for stupid stuff?

Like....

You know.

Something really frivolous.

Like....

Oh, I dunno.

How about...

Schools?

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If Mr. Harper Was So 'Concerned' About Mr. Carson's Ask...

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...Why Did He Give Him The Money Anyway?

What the heck am I talking about?

Well, it turns out that after the PMO started lighting their collective hair on fire when Bruce Carson asked the Harper government for $25 million dollars for one of his shill factories while he was still working for said government, they gave him the money anyway.

Only for a different set of shillophants.

From Greg Watson's excellent CBC piece this morning:

.....The Harper government subsequently approved a $25-million grant for Carbon Management Canada, another research institute chaired by Carson.....

So forget about all this 'mistakes were made in pre-screening' codswallop, because clearly decisions were made to give Mr. Carson what he wanted after the PMO was already fully aware of the good Mr. Carson's inappropriate deeds while he was on the job.

OK?

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Who Really Slayed Vancouver's Casino Dragon?

AllTheCitizensThatFit

PublicHearingsVille

Before the deal went down, Frances Bula published an informative and insightful piece in the Globe yesterday morning that explained how the shifting of the political winds, including the 'fresh' new blasts of hot air blowing in from Victoria and/or the local Helijet pad, made it politically palatable for Vancouver City Council to give the thumbs down to the Casino Industrial Complex that was slated to go up next to Gordon Campbell's Big Tent that is replacing Bill Bennett's Marshmallow.

Which is all fine and good.

Especially given that Council voted unanimously to kill the thing last night.

But it would be a really, really big mistake for folks 'round Lotusland, regardless what they see, hear and read in the local proMedia over the next couple of newscycles, not to understand that the literally hundreds of delegations that represented thousands of people that spoke to council over a multiplicity of marathon public hearings, including sessions that took place over an entire weekend, also made a big, big difference.

Which is the way things are supposed to work.

Aren't they?

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I had my own beef with the Casino Industrial Complex, which mostly had to do with the way with the initial deal was done on the 'inside' of the pre-Crunchy provincial regime (see old posts at the tucked way at the top of the sidebar on the left).

A whole bunch of the delegations/folks, but certainly not all, that worked to stop this thing can be found here.

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The Photos Michael Sona Did Not Tweet-Up

TwitterDee,TwitterDuh

Operatives'RThemVille

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Quadruple Sow Cow Update (Feb 24, 2012): Does Ezra Levant know the good Mr. Sona?

Triple-Scoop-Post-RoboCall Revelation Shuffle Update (Feb 23, 2012): is.....here.

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Double Secret Probation Update (Apr 25, 2011): I have been contacted by a very nice person from the 'The Landmark Report' who wanted to set the record straight. She pointed out that the 'Tweet' referred to below came from the 'editor' not the 'proprietor' of that fine online publication. I have thus made that correction in an editted version of the post below. The representative of said fine online publication also took umbrage at my description of it being 'right-sided' and then went on to state that "it is a site that fosters debate and discussion from all sides of the spectrum" Now, that is a most interesting claim. I've had a look around there and I am not entirely convinced. Regardless, I have edited the post below to make it clear that it is my opinion that the site contains considerable right-sided content of a Canadian political nature. Finally, during my poking around at the very fine 'Landmark Report' it was most illuminating to find that, based on one of his own posts, it is clear that the good editor in question is very proud of his on air support for a political commentator that, in the opinion of some at least, always aspires to foster debate from 'all sides of the spectrum', Mr. Mark Steyn, while the latter was a guest on the program of he who, in the opinion of very, very few, is always inclusive of all political views, Mr. Rush Limbaugh.

Original Update: At bottom of post....

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Yesterday, Conservative Alliance/Coalition Party of Canada operative Mr. Michael Sona, who is currently helping run the campaign of coalition candidate Mr. Marty Burke in Guelph Ontario, retweeted a message from the editor of a very fine website called 'The Landmark Report' that leads back to this post.

The 'Landmark Report', in my opinion, publishes a considerable amount right-sided Canadian political reportage.

Regardless, the post in question, which has been wurlitzered 'round the intewebz by some very well meaning Conservative Coalition apologists, shows five photos that were apparently taken at the University of Guelph last Wednesday during a soon-to-be-hotly disputed 'special initiative' that had been designed to help students cast their ballots before they left campus after final exams.

In fact, this initiative was so special in terms of how it was designed to help get young students out to vote before they left the riding to go home for the summer prior to the regularly scheduled polling day on May 2nd that it was fully supported by none other than the President of Guelph University, who got all avatared-up to do so, as can be seen in the video below...

So....

Getting back to the tweets by the twitterers/operatives/journalists/conservatives concerned, please note that four of the five photos posted by 'The Landmark Report' were taken outside at the University of Guelph last Wednesday.

As in outside the 'special initiative' station where students were casting their ballots.

And, to give the avowed apologists their due, there do appear to be some young folks holding Liberal party literature in some of those photos who are, again, outside.

Please note, however, that the fifth Beatle.....errr.....Photo was taken inside, at what is clearly the special polling station itself.

And in that most (non) incriminating photo of all there appears to be absolutely nothing nefarious or untoward whatsoever going on.

Unless, of course, you count a very nice looking lady checking a student's ID to be nefarious in the extreme.

****

Now.

According to numerous press accounts, based on the statements of eyewitnesses, the dispute at the special polling station revolved, at least in part, around the good Mr. Sona himself who has also been acting as a ministerial staffer in Ottawa during the election cycle off-season.

Funny thing is, try as the Pro-Press might, they could not get Mr. Sona himself or the Conservative party brass that he works for to clearly state whether or not he, Mr. Sona, was or was not present at the site of the 'special initiative' during the dispute.

But here's the real thing....

It turns out that five very different pictures have been published on another very fine website, that of the Guelph Mercury.

And who is in every one of the pictures taken at the University of Guelph, inside, at the site of the special initiative last Wednesday?

Why none other than, the good Mr. Sona himself.

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And whaddy'a know.....It turns out that this is not the first time during this election campaign that a reporter at the Guelph Mercury, Mr. Greg Layson, has done the digging to determine that that the fine Conservative Operative currently working in the Guelph riding for Mr. Burke has been involved in disputes involving local university students attempting to exercise their rights as citizens of Canada.....Gosh.....Would'a thunk it?

And whosoever could have possibly thunk that some of those fine, upstanding and well meaning apologists could possibly have been in on the front end of the wurlitzering of the previous dispute...

Update, 12pm noon on Tuesday Apr 19th (~12hr after this post went up)....It's very interesting, but now, suddenly, the five photos of the good Mr. Sona at the 'special initiative', have been added without comment other than identification to the original 'Landmark Report' post....

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The Conservatives' New Translator: Mr. Michael Sona

TheHubrisOfTheTwitts

OneHundredAndFortyCharactersAtATimeVille

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Update: At Bottom of post.

Double Secret Probation Update: Was he or wasn't he there?...Photographs appear to confirm initial eyewitness reports regarding the presence of the good Mr. Sona at the University of Guelph's special ballot session last Wednesday....

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Mr. Michael Sona is the communications director for the campaign of Conservative Coalition candidate Marty Burke in Guelph Ontario.

He was also, according to a number of eyewitnesses, present during the controversial confrontation on the University of Guelph campus last week.

The following is a report on that confrontation in the Guelph Mercury published yesterday April 16, 2010:

....Several students and a Liberal scrutineer present at the polling station allege Marty Burke’s director of communication, Michael Sona, attempted Wednesday to grab a ballot box in an effort to stop voting at the U of G polling station.

Sona and the Burke campaign team directed all requests for media comment about this episode to the Conservative Party of Canada national campaign.

In a news release issued Friday morning, the party “vehemently denies that any of its workers or volunteers interfered” at the polling station.

“In particular, the Marty Burke campaign denies that any of its workers or volunteers touched a ballot box or ballot,” read the release. “The outlandish and unfounded claims being spread on the internet are the product of desperation, and are most regrettable.”

Students Brenna Anstett and Claire Whalen both said Sona tried to grab the ballot box. Anstett was “100 per cent” sure it was Sona after she identified him in a group photo provided by the Guelph Mercury.

Sona is a former University of Guelph student and former member of the Guelph Campus Conservatives. He also founded the group’s Facebook page.

Conservative party spokesperson Ryan Sparrow, the official responding to media queries about the case, wouldn’t say if Sona had been on campus in connection with the episode....

Now regardless who 'touched' what, or not, what is it, exactly, that the Conservative Operative Mr. Sona was translating as being 'wrong' in terms of the actions of E(lections) C(anada) or anyone else in Guelph?

Because, based on the following, from the Elections Canada press release on the matter at hand, it would appear that absolutely nothing was.

'Wrong' I mean.

"...While the initiative at the University of Guelph was not pre-authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer, the Canada Elections Act provides that electors may apply for and vote by special ballot. A special ballot coordinator, appointed by the local returning officer, oversaw the activities at the University of Guelph. All information at our disposal indicates that the votes were cast in a manner that respects the Canada Elections Act and are valid..."

So, given all that, is it possible that the Conservative Coalition of Canada and its Operatives were actually looking, not for something that was 'wrong', but rather something else?

Something like the following, also from Elections Canada:

"...In light of the focus on youth and student electoral participation at the 41st general election, and on efforts to increase voter interest and turnout among this group, a well-intentioned returning officer undertook a special initiative to create an opportunity for students at the University of Guelph to vote by special ballot.

Once Elections Canada officials were made aware of the local initiative in Guelph, the returning officer was instructed not to engage in any further activities of a similar nature. All returning officers have received this instruction..."

Does that part in bold, directly above, read like a successful voter suppression strategy to you?

Sheesh.

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Thanks to the anonymous commentor on a previous thread for pointing me towards the appropriate operative in this matter......

Update, Mon Apr 18th: Saskboy, with the help of Dr. Dawg, goes up the TwitterCon Food Chain.

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