Sunday, May 01, 2011

Stopping All Cons: A Comprehensive Guide To Strategic Surge Voting In British Columbia


Final Dispatch 9:00pm Sunday May 1st: This is it....All the specific details, with explanations, can be found below...The short story is that 18 seats are ripe for Strategic Con-Stopping in BC if the 50% of NDP and Liberal supporters that are willing to switch their vote actually do so...Please remember - 50% of Liberal and NDP supporters together represent essentially ALL the Con vote which means that they can do absolutely anything they put their collective mind and effort to Monday...For example, if folks in Ontario and Quebec get smart and stop the Con Majority first, we in Lotusland can actually put an end to Mr. Harper's rule forever (thanks to the good Reverand for that very fine last minute thought!)...Now, for those progressive Dippers in B.C. who think this is all crazy, silly and counter-productive,please understand that even Carole James' former Chief-Of-Staff sees the real-politick merit in 17 of the 18 choices on the list below.... OK?

Surging Dippers (Do Not Vote Lib or Green - they cannot win)
1) Fleetwood Pt Kells - Fernando, NDP
2) Newton N. Delta - Simms, NDP
3) Surrey North - Sandu
4) Pitt Meadow-Maple Ridge - Speirs, NDP
5) Burnaby-Douglas - Stewart, NDP
6) Van Kingsway - D.Davies, NDP
7) Kamloops-Thompson - Crawford, NDP
8) Kootenay-Columbia - Shmigelsky, NDP
9) Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - Garrison, NDP
10) Nanaimo-Alberni - Maartman, NDP
11) Van Isle - North - Leonard, NDP

Strategic Liberals (Do Not Vote Dipper or Green, they cannot win)
12) Richmond - Peschisolido, Liberal
13) North Van - Noormohamed, Liberal
14) Van Centre - Fry, Liberal
15) Van Quadra - Murray, Liberal
16) Van South - Dosanjh, Liberal
17) West Van-Sunshine - Veniez, Liberal

Strategic Green (sorry true progressives, but neither the Dipper nor Lib can win)
18) Saanich Gulf-Islands - Elizabeth May, Green
*Please note, it is this one that the former CJames Chief-of-Staff, Ian Reid, does not agree with us on, not because he doesn't agree about the numbers, but because he just believes it is a longterm political mistake to do so.

Final Note: All the Other Seats in B.C are locks be they Dipper or Con, so you are free to do whatever you want...I must note, however, that commenters have made a reasonably persuasive case that the NDP candidates in the two Con-Lock Prince George seats and the Con-Lock Abbotsford seat may be surging into way, way, way longshot contention that would be greatly aided by heavy Strategic voting.


So - this is it.

We've looked at a whole lot of numbers, polls, projections and recommendations, especially from the fine folks over at

And we have come to the conclusion that British Columbia's progressive voters can have their Surge and, when required, vote Strategially too, to drive the Stephen Harper-led Tory/Conservative/Alliance/Reform/Whack-A-Doodle Coalition to the bottom of the deep blue minority sea where it belongs.

Please, by all means feel free to Wurlitzer this thing far and wide (small URL to paste in Emails is: ). As we said before, the stakes are just too high to let the politics of destruction, division and voter suppression destroy our country - OK?

We have three categories:

SURGE - these are the ridings where the NDP 'surge' in popularity over the last week looks to be putting the Dipper over the top (or at the very least in real contention), which means that small 'l' liberals, and maybe even red tories, should take note here to lay off their party's candidate.

STRAT - here is where the Dipper cannot win, and where both Dipper and/or Green Votes could defeat the Con if they are supplied to Lib....Many real progressives hate this... But I am of the opinion that we are forced to do this because of our ridiculous first-past-the-post system and the gravity of the situation.

LOCK- here, no matter what you do the winner has already been decided so you can do whatever the heck you like.

Oh - and one last thing....Except for Saanich Gulf Islands and the Locks, you are most definitely/positively WASTING a chance to stop a Con if you vote Green in any other riding, especially VanCentre (sorry A.Carr) - OK?

Here we go.....


SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)
Fleetwood-Port Kells: The incumbent just may be the worst Con MP West of Cornerbrook which is, of course, N. Grewal. Believe it or not, the surge now has the Dipper Fernando in 2nd and rising...So, while it's a long shot, the only chance looks to be to lay off the Lib Dhanoa and the Greeniac Saldanha who looks to be holding a few thousand votes that could help put the Surge over the top to Stop the Con.....Recommendation: Nao Fernando-NDP.

Newton-North Delta: OK, this is one of those ridings where the Surge really matters (and where proMedia reports that were based on polls from early-to-mid-last week are likely wrong). Thus, the small 'l''s and the RedT's should seriously think of laying off their Lib incumbent Dhaliwhal because the surge looks to have pushed the rising Dipper Sims into the lead of a tight three-way race that includes the Con Fallon. This is another one where the doomed Green vote of 3K could also be a big factor if it would just get real/really progressive to help Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Jinny Sims-NDP (seriously)

Surrey North: A real Surge success story has vaulted the Dipper Sandhu over the Con Cadman. Make no mistake red-folk, the Lib can NOT win here. Go with the surge to stop the Con Cadman.....Recommendation: Jasbir Sandhu-NDP

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: You won't find this one amongst the possible 'swing' ridings from the proMedia folks, but it looks like the surge has the Dipper Speirs within striking distance of the Con Kamp. However, there aren't a lot of Lib votes to be found here so the Greeniacs really, really have to go with the Surge to Stop the Con here....Recommendation: Craig Speirs-NDP.

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):
Richmond: It's a real long shot for the Lib Peschisolido to beat the Con Wong here. But make no mistake, the Dipper Jackaman and the Green Wolfe have no chance - but they do have enough ballots to Stop the Con if their supporters vote strategically....Recommendation: Joe Peschisolido-Liberal

CON-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):
Abbotsford: Con Ed (notso)Fast there fella is a lock.
Chilliwack-FraserCanyon-Hope: Ditto Chuck Strahl's Con-Son Mark.
Delta-Richmond East: John Cummins old riding still a Con-Lock for K-L Findlay
Langley: Mark Warwara (and/or the cardboard version of that Jared guy from Subway) in a Con-Lock.
South Surrey-Whiterock-Cloverdale: Uber-lock for Con Hiebert.


SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)
Burnaby Douglas: Retired Dipper Bill Siksay just managed to beat the Con Leung by 800 votes last time out. This time, in the last week, new Dipper Kennedy Stewart the PoliSci guy looks to have opened up a surge-assisted lead of a few thousand over the Con.....Recommendation: Kennedy Stewart - NDP

Vancouver Kingsway: The surge has really aided the incumbent Dipper Davies. So why don't I have him in a lock here? Well, I live in this riding and the rising property values, not to mention the associated increase in European SUV's all over the streets, really scares me - luckily the non-Prog vote is reasonably well-split between the Con and Lib. But look, there is some Green strength in this riding that could be a real spoiler if folks don't realize that to stop the Con you have to go with the surging Dipper.....Recommendation: Don Davies-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):
North Vancouver: It's neck and neck between the Con Saxton and the Lib Noormohamed. The Dippers and Greens have no chance, but together they do have 5 times the votes needed to beat the Con. Make no mistake, strategic voting can win this riding. Therefore, if you want to stop Stephen Harper you MUST lay off the NDP and the Greeniac and vote Liberal in this one..... Recommendation: Noormohamed - Liberal

Vancouver Centre: Even with the surge, Dipper Shillington is just too far back and, because the Green Adrienne Carr is potentially 7,000 votes strong also, you must not choose either to make sure the Creme de la Creme's Head Girl, Con Jennifer Clarke, does not wiggle up the middle to beat Dr. Fry..... Recommendation: Hedy Fry - Liberal.

Vancouver Quadra: The Harpie here is British Columbia's original 'Stealth' Con, Deborah Meredith. And while she came very, very close to former provincial Lib 'Earth, Wind and Fire' Minister Joyce Murray in the 2008 Bye-Bye, the StealthCon faded a bit in the last general when all the old money, small 'l' Libs started paying attention. Still, rumour has it that huge Con $$ have gone into this riding and, make no mistake, neither the Dipper Elkins or the Greeniac Shaw can come close....Recommendation Joyce Murray-Liberal.

Vancouver South: The Lib, Ujjal Dosanjh, was in real trouble here to the Con in 2008. However, a number of real and seriously troubling gaffes by the Con Young have given Dosanjh a wee bit of breathing room this time around. Regardless, this is another one where, even with the surge, the Dipper cannot win. Thus, to be absolutely sure you will help stop the Con you must vote strategically here (even if you, like me, hold Ujji partially responsible for the disaster we still have provincially 10 years after he jumped ship). Recommendation: Ujjal Dosanjh-Liberal

West Van-Sunshine Coast: Sorry folks, but only the Lib Veniez has a shot at the Con Weston. And here's the thing - the Strat matters here because there really are more than enough potential Dipper votes that could be used to instead beat the Harpie. So, if you wanna stop the Con this is one riding where you have to turn your back on the surge, take a deep breath, and lay off the Dipper (and you Greens do the same - vote grabber BWilson is not running this time, but you still have up to 3000 ballots to deliver here, OK).....Recommendation: Daniel Veniez-Liberal

LOCK (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):
Burnaby-New Westminster: Dipper Peter Julian is a lock, with almost double the nearest candidate who is the Con.

NewWestminster-Coquitlam: Dipper Fin Donnelly, who first took Dawn Black's old seat in a Bye-Bye, is crushing all comers, so much so that there aren't enough Greens and Libs put together to get the 2nd place Con Dilworth even halfway there.

Vancouver East: Once again, East Van Halen is a lock for Dipper Libby Davies

Port Moody-Westwood-PoCo: Con Moore in a lock....Uggggh, especially folks with autism....Dipper Ireland in solid second, but way behind, even with the surge.


SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Surge has Dipper Crawford right there with the Con, and there are more than enough Lib and Green votes there to Stop the latter in their tracks....Recommendation: Michael Crawford - NDP

Kootenay-Columbia: Incumbent Con Abbott has left the building. There has been a surge, and Tony Martinsen, who knows his numbers, thinks the Dipper Shimelgsky has a shot there. The thing is, all I've seen, hard numbers-wise, so far is a greater than 10K lead for the Con Wilks. Thus, with only 6-8K Lib/Green votes combined it means that all non-Dippers who want to stop the Con have to lay off and let the surge take over to push this long shot, which I originally had in a Con-Lock, over the top.....Recommendation: Mark Shmigelsky-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold Your Nose To Stop The Con):
None...Nada.....Libs are essentially persona non-grata....Look what the Provincial LINO's have wrought....

LOCK (Vote As You Wish as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):
Southern Interior: Surge has Atamenanko safe (we think; this one might get moved up if it looks problematic - thing is, there aren't many non-Con votes to pick up.
Skeena-Bulkley Valley: It's like Berkeley North up there for Dipper N.Cullen (which is a good thing)
Cariboo-Prince George: ConLock
Prince George-Peace River: ConLock even without incumbent - sorry.
Kelowna-Lake Country (they've seceded already?): ConLock
Okanagan Times Two: Both are grape-soaked Con-Locks, unfortunately.


SURGE (lay off everyone but the Dipper to Stop the Con)
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca: This is the former seat of multi-party member Keith Martin, most recently a Lib, but it even went Reform with him back in the day...It was assumed that it would be the Lib Szpak that would chase the Con DeSouza who lost to Dr. Martin by a whisker in 2008. But then the good folks at Project Democracy commissioned a riding-specific poll by Oracle and it confirmed a massive surge that has the Dipper Garrison as in solid second and the only chance by quite a large margin to beat the Con. Thus, you have to lay off the Lib here to help kick the Blue Scourge off the Island completely.....Recommendation: Randall Garrison-NDP.

Nanaimo-Alberni: This is a bizarre, old labour riding that drifted populist Reform with longterm Con incumbent Lunney. But, maybe even more so than in Esquimalt described above, the crushing Orange Surge has the Dipper Maartman in serious striking range. No one else is within 15,000 votes of Lunney, so lay off them and go with the Dipper to Stop the Con.... Recommendation: Zenaida Maartman-NDP

Van Isle North: This is a see-saw between the Dipper Leonard and the incumbent Con Duncan. The important thing here is that there are essentially no Lib votes to get, although there are a few thousand leaning Green. Looks like it may come down to the Green rump and, perhaps more importantly a strong GOTV effort by the NDP in Comox/Courtenay/Campbell River to take fullest advantage of the surge .....Recommendation: Ronna-Rae Leonard-NDP

STRAT (You MUST Hold, And Maybe Even Blow, Your Nose To Stop The Con):
Saanich Gulf Islands: This one pains me, but really and truly, neither the Dipper Loring-Kuhanga nor the Lib Hetherington have any shot to beat the Minister for Hockey Rinks and Roundabouts (but never, ever RoboCalls), Gary Lunn. Thus, if you want to stop the Con this is the one place where progressives must vote Green. For me, it's short term pain for potential longterm gain....Recommendation: Elizabeth May Green

NDP-LOCKs (Vote As You Wish, as the 'Die is Cast', regardless):
Nanaimo-Cowichan: Dipper is runaway a lock.
Victoria: Dipper Savioe is widening her signficant lead, and it drives the upper crust of Uplands crazy...Ha!

The following are all the Updates from earlier on Sunday, newest first back to's mostly real inside baseball:

Updates: Sun 7:30pm - Darn...Somehow I disappeared VanIsle- sorry...It's Dipper Surge in VanIsle North, Nanaimo-Alberni and Esquimalt Juan de Fuca with Green May in Saanich and Isles...Will fix later... Sun 7pm- Lots of great input from readers. Travis F.and Tony M tell us there is some on the ground reports of Dipper support seriously rising in Abbotsford and the two Prince George ridings. While I still can't take 'em out of Con-Lock-Land it is worth considering to go all in NDP in all of those ridings given that no one else has a hope in heckfire. Old friend Spartikus points us back to a Mike Watkins post that there are Lib internals in Van Centre which say that Green A.Carr has a shot there, which is fair enough, but I just do not see the externals no matter how much A.Coyne wants it to be.... Sun 3:00pm- Incredible numbers from Angus Reid, via Project Democracy, that 50% of declared Liberal and Dipper supporters, combined, are willing to consider Strat Voting to protect the Surge and Stop Cons...That could really lead to huge riding-specific swings that is NOT in most standard polling done previously.Wow......Sun 2:00pm - And now welcome to Bigger E's Facebook friends - if you want to Stop the Cons in VanQuadra and VanCentre you have to lay off the Dippers and Greens and hold your nose while voting Liberal...VKingsway and VSouth are a little different - details below...Of course, EastVanHalen is still a lock for DipperDavies....Sun 1:30pm-Welcome folks arriving from VSun, every single riding in B.C. is subjected to our (not-so)patented Surge/Strat/Lock analysis below....1pm Sun - ElectionPrediction Project is now with us, picking surging Dipper Sandu over Con Cadman in Surrey North, so please, do the best of your abilities, lay off Lib&Green...Noon Sun - The venerable 'Bouquets of Gray' has put together a similar Surge and Strat Guide To Con-Stopping for the good folks of Ontario, here... 10am Sun - Election Prediction Project now calling Esq Juan de Fuca for Dipper Garrison. Regardless, you must lay off Liberal AND Green there to Stop the Con as we point out below...And for those in the Kootenay-Columbia we have now moved you out of Con-Lock-Land and into longshot SurgeVille for the Dipper Shmigelsky, which means that you must all lay-off anything but Orange to stop a Con, OK?... 9am Sun - Old friend Holly S. points out that checking out where the 3rd party Ads are going could give folks an idea about where the Cons figure they are in trouble in Lotusland and VanIsle...Travis F makes a good case that we may have underestimated the potential for the youth vote to assist the surge (just hope it doesn't drift Green anywhere by Saanich/UVIC and the Isles)....8am Sun - fixed the Kootenay-Columbia call (thanks Tony M.), put it in long-shot SurgeVille...



Anonymous said...

What about Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (on Vancouver Island)? It's a nailbiter between the NDP & Conservatives - lots of pundits say as much. Why aren't you asking people to vote NDP in this riding?

RossK said...


Surge has put the Dipper into 2nd and into contention to win and Stop the Con directly in Esquimalt Frenchy Fuqua....My call is to NOT vote Lib there - remember Keith Martin is gone....

Details are here.


RossK said...

And the Van Isle riding-by-riding recommendations are coming (there are lots already down-thread if you just scroll down the mainpage).


Norm Farrell said...

I'm sitting on Salt Spring Island having spent a fabulous few hours with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now! and several hundred rapt listeners at her lecture to the Salt Spring Forum. Exploring the island and walking through the Ganges market today, it seems that Greenie Elizabeth May is set to knock off Tory Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

I saw many buttons worn on the street and May signs at private residences outnumbering Lunn 10 to 1. Interesting race but at least in the Gulf Islands, it looks clear.

RossK said...



It appears that Saanich Gulf Islands is the ONE place that folks should vote Green to stop the con.

Looking forward to reading about your visit with the fabulous Ms. Goodman.


Rod Smelser said...

I really don't see any comprehensive set of figures, just selected snippets here and there.

When I have done the math, actually using the 2008 results by riding, and then estimating the impact of a rising NDP vote coming from three sources, the non-voters, the Conservatives and the Liberals, I find there is no point at which increasing NDP support results in any net gain for the Tories.

Some of the big newspaper pundits, who are totally beholden to Ujjal Dosanjh and Brad Zubyk, have "cautioned" voters that voting NDP "may" result in "giving Harper his majority".

As far as I can tell, that is simply not the case under ANY SCENARIO. If the Gazetteer is honestly interested, I can email you the spreadsheet. Needless to say, it's an offer I don't expect to be taken up on.

RossK said...

Mr. S. --

Scroll down to previous posts if you want the numbers stuff from a number of individual ridings.

I'm giving recommendations here.

Feel free to ignore them, as you wish.

However, for folks that want those hard numbers (2008 is meaning less and less in non Con-Lock ridings given the surge) go here and click on the appropriate riding

Tony Martinson said...

Your Kootenay-Columbia info is wonky. First, the NDP candidate is Mark Shmigelsky. (Maartman is an Island girl.) And you have it as a surge potential and a no-hoper. Pick one. It's a toughie, but the NDP has won there.

BTW, the PG seats are both theoretically in play if the Lib vote collapses. Not likely, but possible.

RossK said...

Whoops - sorry Tony wil fix was working late, late on Interior/North last night.


You really think PG's are in play.

Can you give us something to look at that says so?

Anything else bugging you about the calls (I very much respect your number/strategic knowledge).


RossK said...

...And for the record....

I do have the Dipper Maartman surging in Nanaimo-Alberni

Travis Fast said...

Not sure Abby is the tight lock they think. If the libs go NDP there is a real chance. NDP candidate is xtian progressive with big support in the PJ community.

RossK said...

Thanks Travis - Could explain why Mr. Harper landed there yesterday...But....All numbers I've seen has Con up by 15-20K which is massive in that riding (ie. everybody else, put together, only gets half-way there)....Do you have something internal that we don't know about?


RossK said...

Best new name for the potential Lib/Dipp/Green team from commenter Mark over at the fantastic is 'The Stoplight Coalition'.

Now if you'll excuse me, for a few minutes, I have to go do some blog whoring.

And again, please feel free to wurlitzer this post around where ever and to whom ever you think will help stop Cons (Eric Grenier's 308 ceiling still gives them an outside shot at a majority.

Here is our short form URL for easy cutting and pasting in Emails:


Holly Stick said...

You might want to keep an eye out for third-party advertisers working for the Conservatives as they did in the last two elections:

Travis Fast said...

No internal polling numbers. In all probability it will go 60% for Ed. But the youth vote looks set to show-up en masse, the NDP is better funded and organized then it has ever been and Ed has been running a terrible campaign. i suspect Ed will mostly likely take 60% but there is an outside chance. These are strange days. So no do not bet the farm on it it but be prepared for some surprising numbers.

travis fast said...

Harper probably landed in Abby because it is a safe ridding and was good place to start his junket.

RossK said...

Thanks Holly!

Good analysis Travis - thanks (and I actually agree with you regarding Harper going the 'Safe' Route....It was actually telling that he didn't touch down in Surrey given that he has candidates in real trouble there.)


kootcoot said...


Would everyone PLEASE stop referring to the HarperCons as Tories - it is an insult to anyone who actually ever was a genuine Tory - a group with which I disagree, but at least respect. In my book referring to the Harperites, the word Tory can only be used with the prefix "Reforma" FIRMLY attached.

No need to apologize for street walking at the House, Ross (by which I assume you mean plugging this post)- Hell I may just reproduce the whole thing on my front page to save those in the sticks like me (with stone age connections or devices) from having to send an HTTP request and wait for your page to load.

I hope you are correct about Alex in my Southern Interior riding - I pretty much agree with him on everything except the long gun registry. But he had a free ride last time as the ReformaTories essentially had no candidate, as the nominee was too busy facing various legal issues like smuggling and hit and run allegations - to the degree that even the Cons disowned him. However in the past the riding has sent genuine Tories (ie Progressive Conservatives) like Bob Brisco to Ottawa and Reformer Jim Gouk practically owned the seat until he retired.

RossK said...

For Tony M.--

We most definitely have Kootenay-Columbia in the long shot surge position now....


For anyone who might have missed it, the ElectionPredictionProject moved the Dipper Garrison into a Surge-Assisted Lead in Esq. Juan De Fuca this morning....


RossK said...

For those in Ontario...The venerable "Bouquets of Gray" has a pretty comprehensive Liberal/Strat & Dipper/Surge guide to stopping Cons up as well.

It is here.

RossK said...

Hi All.

Something goofy is going on with the comments.

If you are having problems getting something posted send it to be my Email at:

pacificgazette at yahoo dot ca

And I'll get it up.

travis fast said...

I called Abby and the info I got was that the Ed's internal polls are showing the NDP way up from the last election. But not so much that Ed's people did not want to talk about it.

spartikus said...

Strictly FWIW: Liberal internals in Vancouver Centre show neck and neck with Greens:!/confute/status/64755561039806465

Tony Martinson said...

Re: PG.

Weak, weak Green presence. Parachuted Lib. Saw a poll last weak (no link, sorry) that showed a big chunk of New NDP support was in the north. I think it is a long, long shot, but mathematically possible to win the southern seat. Will not bet the farm on it, though.

RossK said...

Spart- really...Wow???...But outa Coyne...He is kind of climbing down off his reasonable perch the last couple of days.

Thanks Travis and Tony - I'll add a note, because it hurts no one but Cons if everybody goes all in with the Dipper in all three ridings.


Bob Broughton said...

Why should anybody care what Ian Reid thinks?

RossK said...


We had quite a good discussion about SGI over at Ian's place.

We agreed to disagree for the sake of 17/18.

For this thing to work we need smart folks of all stripes who are willing to consciously make a second choice for the collective good.

And essentially, despite the fact that he does have serious concerns about strategic voting and its potential to fragment the progressive vote, Ian was able to take that step.

And in that vein, please realize that most of my readers, given my PoV and political bent, are provincial Dippers.

And, finally, I actually do care what Mr. Reid thinks - just as I care what you think also. I realize that those two things are often not the same, but I always care what folks who are being up front about their thoughts have to say and you both very definitely have that going for you.


macadavy said...

Gaz I beg to differ viz-a-viz VanCtr. Check with Project Democracy, to quote them: "The Conservatives don't appear to be a threat in this riding. Vote your preference." And that's despite their clear Liberal bias.
Besides, I live here and la Hedy is so far past her 'best before' date I couldn't vote for her even if I wore a gas mask!
The Dipper, Karen Shillington, is running a strong second and one poll (Decima,01/05)has her leading.

macadavy said...

And as an addendum, Michael Byers' thoughtful piece on the perils of strategic voting:

Byers was the NDP candidate in VanCtr last go-round and now resides in the Gulf Islands - I believe he knows whereof he speaks!

Bob Broughton said...

OK, then, what is this "longterm political mistake" that Reid was talking about?

Holly Stick said...

Also beware of phonecalls telling people their voting place is at a different address. I don't know if that is happening in BC, but it is in Ontario:

Tony Martinson said...

Lots of chatter about potential for Liberals who would cross the floor to the conservatives rather than support the New Dems.

Sorta throws the whole point of strategic voting out the window.

Anonymous said...

nice work, Ross

be easy on Ross over his few errors.......he is a minion of UBC where real estate trumps science big time!!!!......I have some inside stuff on that!!! if its a big secret!!!

strat li'l stevie out!!!!!

Anonymous said...

bye the bye......anyone going to be posting early retorns from the east coast?

RossK said...


I believe it is both the further fracturing of the progressive vote in future elections and the potential loss of a good Dipper candidate longterm because the party will abandon her and go for someone else (think he's had some experience with that recently on the provincial level).

However, again, this is only my 'belief', I suggest you head over to Ian's place and ask him directly. He's really good at responding honestly to a straight-up question. That's why I respect him.


RossK said...

Glad to hear I'm a minion.

Just so Anon-Above knows, I am someone who fought long and hard against the most egregious aspects of the real estate development where, and near where, I used to live (and still work).

And if this is a veiled preview to a coming outing....Go right ahead. I have never purposefully hid what I do for a living and/or where I work (it is clearly discernable in a lot of the non-political stuff that I write). You should know, however, that the reason I keep my surname off this blog is to ensure that the charitable groups and foundations I actively work with to raise money for, a lot of it from folks that would never vote Dipper, don't get whacked because of stuff I write.


As to "mistakes" in my recommendations.....

First, have a look at the many actual rolling published (not Andrew Coyne-wurlitzered 'internal') polls on the Proj Demo page and I think you will find that they were a little off with their early statement that is on the page....There is significant Con support there that could, in my opinion (and that is all it is), very much come into play if a whole bunch of support was hived off the Lib because it went Green.... Regardless, the take home for me is that the latter has very, very little chance to win given the longtime Lib's well known GOTV strengths amongst a very significant block of voters that lives in that riding.

As for the chance of floor crossing.....Look....Nothing, absolutely nothing, I have suggested in my recommendation will hurt a Dippers chances of winning this time (unless, of course the source is actually higher than the windturbine atop Grouse Mtn (in which case nothing I say amounts to a hill of beans anyway)....And, regardless, I would way rather force the Lib in West Van to cross than let the Con win outright.



RossK said...

I will NOT be announcing early returns before the polls close in Lotusland. In fact, personally, I feel that it is irresponsible of anyone to do so.

Although, not as irresponsible for ECanada and Parliament not putting rules and procedures in place to release all results at the same time.


RossK said...

Gosh - I just realized how strident I'm being.



Tony Martinson said...

Stridency is yor right, dude. Your roof, your rules. I wonder, only academically, how traditional leftish Lib voters would feel about someone they supported backing the Cons after all is said and done.

Holly Stick said...

Like David Emerson? Not happy, I should imagine.

Anonymous said...

lol.......geez, Ross

I meant to poke ya with a stick not bash ya over the head with a club

not meaning to be nasty, dude

to be clear, I come back once in a bit to check out your stuff and you do a great job

..........lenin's ghost

best identify myself when slashing ya so you can get my number to get me back.......hehehe

RossK said...

lenin's freakin' ghost!!! I feel way, way better.....sorry for the ballisticness - I was way off base above. lg and I go, way, way, way back to Billmon days for anybody that knows me. He is one of the greatest commenters of all time.

Thanks Tony - I'm usually much more into the thrust and parry - think I've been ancy because I've been getting hammered by a lot of progressive/dipper friends on the Email

Ya, Holly - that's the thing. And how did that work out for the good Mr. Emerson? And who holds VKingsway now as a result? ......Going back over my Lib list I cannot imagine one of them going Con of their own free will, except maybe the former Earth Wind and Fire back-up singer.


Bob Broughton said...

"I suggest you head over to Ian's place and ask him directly." Nah. Elizabeth May won. He'll have to deal with it.

RossK said...

Fair enough Bob.

What did you think of ACarr in VanCtre?


Anonymous said...

no worries, Ross....keep up the good work, bro

lenin's ghost

RossK said...

Thanks lg.

Was getting whacked around quite a bit by folks on our side of the ice who think that we should just keep mucking about in the house leagues rather than put together a rep team that can stomp with the big girls and boys.....It was all rather discouraging to tell you the truth.


Anonymous said...