Thursday, April 28, 2011

Can You Have Your Surge And Strat-Vote Too?



Update: Thursday Apr 28/11 @ 5pm, at bottom of post

Yes, you pretty much can.

If you live on Vancouver Island that is.

For example, in Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Alberni, two ridings where Conservative incumbents can potentially be sent packing, the only legitimate second choice is the Dipper. Even without the surge this really is the case on the North Island where things are tightening to the point of a statistical dead heat between the new Dipper Leonard and the skin-of-his-teeth-in-'08 Con Duncan. It may come down to Dipper GOTV efforts in Comox, Courtenay and CRiver (and the get out the vote thing could very well be greatly affected by all this surge talk).

In Nanaimo-Alberni it's a tough uphill climb for the Dipper Maartman to beat the longtime Con Lunney, especially given the weird, almost inexplicably deep Reform roots there that have become so entrenched that there is very little soft Lib vote left to dig out. In fact, it looks like it will have to come from a bunch of folks that went Green last time if the Surge is going to be successful. Although, I've gotta believe that there are still a goodly number of older folks in those parts that might just have a lingering soft spot for labour in their hearts (if not their paid-off mortgages) that could peel away some of that weird, populist backlash vote from the Cons.

Victoria and Nanaimo-Cowichan both look to be Dipper locks, especially with the surge, although I'm a little worried about some Lizzie May spillover that could become a bit of a a problem given that the Greens showed some strength in both ridings last time.

Which brings us to Saanich Gulf Islands....Sorry Dippers, this is where you don't get to eat Con Cake yourselves (and in fact you must NOT). You've got to let Lizzie do it, as she looks to be in a statistical dead-heat with the Minister of Hockey Rinks and Roundabouts, but never, ever, Robocalls, Gary Lunn.

And finally, the one where the surge really matters - Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. In fact, it matters so much that this is where I think libs (the real small 'l' ones, I mean) may just have to hold their noses and go Dipper in the end. The Con DeSouza barely (i.e. less than a 100 votes) lost to longtime multi-party incumbent Dr. Martin last time out. But Keith is gone now which puts him on the same footing as Dave Barrett who once held this riding as well. The recent polls for Dipper Garrison and Lib Szpak are all over the place, but Greg Morrow, who is always very careful, has Garrison rising. So, given all that if ever there was a riding to both go with the Surge and be Strategic too, this is the place anybody that wants to see a Harper Majority stopped, this is where you have to go with the NDP to stop the Con. And what's even crazier, this (and/or Van Isle North) could be the last riding in the country to declare which could make things doubly exciting if the Cons are somewhere in the 153/4 range around 11pm Eastern/8pm Pacific on Monday night.....Did you hear that Mom and Dad?

Update: Paul Willcocks, in the comments, mentions the very important fact that Project Democracy, a StratVote focussed site, has commissioned a poll in Esq(notFrenchy)Fuqua and will drop it tomorrow/Friday....That should help solidify things a bit either way for potential small 'l' nose holders or, perhaps, even Dippers if the surge has actually already passed.

Speaking of RoboCalls.....I wonder if there will be any calls to LibLeaners from the bowels of the Rainbow Warrior claiming that Lizzie was actually born in New Zealand to parents from the French Foreign Legion and is thus is technically a Peace-War Coalitionist who can't be trusted to successfully navigate the new PatBay-Airport Turnpike/NotHockeyRink on a Nuclear-Powered Moped sanx HandleBar FauxRocketLaunchers while screaming that old Ozzy tune about eco-friendly, acid-hopped Trains from the Sabbath days.....Naw, no one would ever try something as Crazy as that......Right?
Next Up....It gets a little tougher, with first call Surge/Strat recommendations in FraserValley/LMainlandSouth....Stay-tuned.



paul said...

I note says it has commissioned polling in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and plans on a Friday release.

RossK said...


That will give us a better idea of what's up.

Thanks Paul.


Scott in Montreal said...

Hah, and here I was thinking "Fender Strat". Where's is that segment's vote, eh?

I'm a Les Paul myself.

RossK said...


Axe references!


Will keep in mind for future posts - thanks.