Tuesday, February 23, 2021

What Will Happen If And When The Third Vaccine Arrives?

VaccinesDon'tHelpPeople
VaccinesInArmsDoVille


It looks like the single shot adenoviral-based vaccine from Johnson and Johnson may soon be approved for emergency use in the United States and Canada according to various new report, including one from John Paul Tasker at the CBC:

Public Services and Procurement Minister Anita Anand said today that Canada is ready to deploy a new COVID vaccine from Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical division, Janssen, once it receives regulatory approval from Health Canada — but she couldn't say how many shots will be available in the coming weeks.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's vaccines and related biological products advisory committee will meet Friday to review the clinical trial data for this vaccine. A final U.S. decision on issuing emergency use authorization (EUA) could follow as early as this weekend...


And, while it is not clear how quickly doses will arrive in Canada (we have ordered10 million doses so far), in the States at least the company is ready to start rolling out a significant number of doses quickly:

...Dr. Richard Nettles, vice-president of medical affairs at Janssen, told the U.S. congressional energy and commerce subcommittee today that 4 million doses will shipped to points in the U.S. immediately after it secures an EUA. At least 20 million more will be delivered by end of March, Nettles said...


All of which is good news.

But what about issues with reduced efficacy in the clinical trial compared to those from the mRNA vaccine trials that could cause people to start getting choosy, as if they were picking peanut butter at the supermarket?

Well, Ashish Jha of Brown University made a compelling case in a Washington Post OpEd recently, why, if you are offered the J&J vaccine, you should take it, regardless.

In my opinion he has a strong argument, so I'm going to repeat it here, pretty much in full:

...At first glance, the data on effectiveness for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine looks different. The company’s trials indicate that the vaccine is 66 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe covid-19, and 85 percent effective at preventing severe disease — notably lower than the 95 percent of the mRNA vaccines. But we need to look closer. There are key differences in the underlying trial data that shape the reported effectiveness of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, including the time frame for reporting cases. Unlike the mRNA vaccines, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested extensively in three locations globally — the United States, South America and South Africa — and the overall figure on effectiveness (66 percent) is an average of trials against different variants of SARS-CoV-2, including variants from Brazil and South Africa that are now raising concerns. The overall results for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which were developed and tested before any of these variants appeared, might more closely resemble the J&J vaccine when tested against these variants.

The most important data point is that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is 100 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19: Not one individual in the Phase 3 vaccine study was hospitalized with or died of covid once recipients were 28 days out from their vaccination (it takes time for the vaccine to work). In the context of a pandemic that has killed nearly half a million Americans and more than 2.4 million people globally, this is crucial. Our imperative is to save lives — to stop serious illness and death from covid-19. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine clearly passes that test.

That vaccine also is extremely safe, on par with both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Its trial data shows no instances of severe allergic reactions following vaccination (which has been a concern of some with the mRNA vaccines), and it generally produced fewer and milder side effects than the vaccines currently available. While we await full data analysis by the FDA, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is also likely to end up being an extremely safe vaccine.

Finally, Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine boasts two crucial qualities that neither the Pfizer nor Moderna vaccine can claim: It is delivered in one dose, and it can remain stable for at least three months at normal refrigeration temperatures. This allows for unprecedented convenience for both health-care professionals and vaccine recipients without sacrificing efficacy against the most severe forms of disease...


Tough to argue with that I reckon.

The point is that right now things are going slow because we don't have enough vaccine. Here's hoping that things don't remain slow in the coming weeks and months because people decide to shop for their favourite vaccine.

OK?


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4 comments:

e.a.f. said...

AI not so great or effective vaccine is still better than no vaccine.

What will happen in my opinion, is the vaccines which are more effective will go to those with money and connections and the rest of the world will get the less effective vaccines.

Israel paid $50 a shot for their vaccines. Other countries bid lower. Guess who got the vaccines. We don't know what Canada bid. Israel most likely bid high because they're in a constant state of war and people under 40 remain in the reserves. Now the Palestinians haven't been able to avail themselves to the vaccines.

In the U.S.A. vaccine distribution seems to be going the way of all things in the U.S.A., the wealthy get it first. Florida has established two vaccine clinics in wealthy neighbourhoods. Neighbourhods of colour, not so much.

Now Canada seems to be ensuring Indigenous People get their vaccines early, but to not give them their vaccines early could result in a government loosing an election.

Me, I'll take whatever is offered. I'm not waiting for a "better" one. I will however continue to act like the virus is out there because it will be. Many won't get vaccinated, mutations will increase and we will be back where we started. Inequity will rule. Just look south of the border.

Its like AIDs. they have medication to keep it in check, if you can afford it in some countries, but its still out there, you still can catch it and there is no cure.

Life will get back to semi normal, but over all, my guess is the overall life expectancy will decrease all over the world due to the virus and any mutations we have in the future. There may not be enough profit in eliminating it.

Graham said...

Thanks for the good and useful information. I didn’t think an average guy like me would get to choose so now I feel a whole lot better if I get “stuck” with the J&J version. In fact with that info about it being tested where there are variants I just may prefer it.
It seems likely too that we may be getting one a year from now on. Much like an annual flu shot. If that is the case then there will be money to be made by the pharma companies.
I was interested to see that in the ramped up roll out plans of the feds that they are planning on utilizing more places of convenience for the plebs to get jabbed. Pharmacies of course but also midwives, paramedics, bringing back retired nurses, and my favourite, dentists. As I have a check up next month or more likely the six month one after that, I can get a two fer.

Keith said...

Sometimes it’s difficult to keep track of the vaccine info. from the folks on teevee, which personally I’m starting to tune out. Many thanks for cutting through the fog Ross and keeping it straightforward.

RossK said...

e.a.f.--

Here in BC we've done a very good job at getting almost everyone in long term care vaccinated which is a good thing and has likely been a significant factor in the recent sustained drop in deaths. I applaud our folks for sticking to their guns on this.

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Graham

One other thing to bear in mind is that the J&J adneno-based vaccine is a lot easier to ship, handle and store so.

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Thanks very much Keith.


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