Saturday, July 31, 2021

The Lagging Indicator That Matters Most.




The graph above is from a piece in today's New York Times by Lauren Leatherby  comparing COVID-19 outcomes across U.S. counties with either high (left) or low (right) vaccination rates.

The grey under the curves represent deaths.

Of course, some folks might be wondering how this can be given all the hullabaloo over U.S. CDC concerns that vaccinated people can still transmit virus to others after a breakthrough infection occurs?

Well, it is because the vaccinated that do develop a relatively rare breakthrough infection themselves rarely go on to develop symptoms. Additionally, only a small percentage of the vaccinated who develop symptoms progress to a stage where they get severely ill and die.

Eric Topol, who really knows what he's talking about and really stays on top of this stuff, recently gave kudos to a fellow named Darren Lu for his truly impressive graphic that demonstrates the protective multiplier effect of vaccination that contributes to real world differences in death rates like those shown at the top of the post:



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So, what's the issue with the vaccinated who do suffer breakthrough infections who do not get sick but can transmit the Delta variant of the virus to others?....Well, the big issue there is that those folks will not know that they are infectious (i.e. they are asymptomatic) which will likely drive spread to both the vaccinatated and, worse, the unvaccinated given the high R0 value of this particular version of the bug. Thus, the CDC's change in mask recommendations this week....How to really deal with this?...Dr. Topol suggests widespread rapid antigen testing so those vaccinated who do get infected but not sick will know to self-isolate...I reckon this is an apporoach that institutions with large numbers of young people, including those with large numbers of young adult people, returning in, say, September might want to consider.


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