Tuesday, May 09, 2017
Election Returns Open Thread...
Feel free to vent.
I'm off until about 9:45pm getting littler e. from a tap dance thingy.
Don't wreck the place while I'm away...
.
Come On Over, There's A Whole Lotta Voting Going On.
VoteBaby
VoteVille
While it's old hat now for Bigger E., today littler e. is voting for the very first time.
Interestingly, it appears that they both figured out what vote splitting is without any help from me.
These days it's pretty much the same thing with their song and dance acts also.
Which is exactly as it should be.
As for the old days, well....
Have fun kibbitzing with your friends, neighbours and fellow citizens as you head from the sunlight into the voting booth everybody!
.
VoteVille
While it's old hat now for Bigger E., today littler e. is voting for the very first time.
Interestingly, it appears that they both figured out what vote splitting is without any help from me.
These days it's pretty much the same thing with their song and dance acts also.
Which is exactly as it should be.
As for the old days, well....
Have fun kibbitzing with your friends, neighbours and fellow citizens as you head from the sunlight into the voting booth everybody!
.
Monday, May 08, 2017
Where The New Support For The BC Liberals Is NOT Coming From.
SomeInconvenientTruths
AreGreenerThanOthersVille
From that latest, much discussed (and disputed), Mainstreet/Postmedia poll:
Note which line has not going down as the BC Liberal line has drifted upward the last couple of weeks?
Now note which line has actually been going down during that same period.
Point is, push-assisted or not, any increase in support for the Cronification of Everything party has very likely come from a drop in undecideds rather from Greens.
All the more reason why I stand behind my hypothesis from yesterday that all that soft progressive support leaning Green could, if it swings back to its senses, win it for the Dippers
OK?
______
And why would low info undecideds swing BCL in the final days?....Short and long of it?...Institutional endorsements I reckon.
.
AreGreenerThanOthersVille
From that latest, much discussed (and disputed), Mainstreet/Postmedia poll:
Note which line has not going down as the BC Liberal line has drifted upward the last couple of weeks?
Now note which line has actually been going down during that same period.
Point is, push-assisted or not, any increase in support for the Cronification of Everything party has very likely come from a drop in undecideds rather from Greens.
All the more reason why I stand behind my hypothesis from yesterday that all that soft progressive support leaning Green could, if it swings back to its senses, win it for the Dippers
OK?
______
And why would low info undecideds swing BCL in the final days?....Short and long of it?...Institutional endorsements I reckon.
.
Sunday, May 07, 2017
#BCElxn17....These Numbers Don't Lie.
BananasVille
Look.
I know that many, if not most, BC Green Party candidates are very well intentioned.
Heckfire, some of them, like Shawnigan Lake's Sonia Fursteneau and that old punk rock war horse from Burnaby named Joe, would likely make great MLA's.
And I can see how Mr. Weaver's (mostly) socially democratic platform sits well with a whole lot of progressive voters who are, at least right now, saying they will vote Green.
But here's the thing....
Every seat taken from the Dippers on the Island moves the BC Liberal Party one seat closer to victory.
And even just one or two Green splits up the middle on the Lower Mainland ensure that there will be no voter and/or pay-to-play reform before the next election in 2021.
Why do say this?
Because it cannot be denied that, despite all the post-event backtracking, that Mr. Weaver himself made it very clear in his interview with Keith Baldrey last week that he will not work with Mr. Horgan if no one wins a majority. Furthermore, Mr. Weaver also made it clear (and has a past track record of support of the BC Liberals) that he gets along with, and can talk to, the "Iron Cronebird", Ms. Clark, particularly when it comes to the 'economy'.
So....
The time has come is time to look hard at the data and pull out the numbers that actually matter.
Which are the second party preference numbers of decided voters...
I'm going to refer to the most recent Mainstreet poll here, but you can look at a whole bunch of polls from all the companies over the last few weeks (they are listed, by date and company, by Eric Grenier, here) and you will see that the following summary is not a flash in the pan.
First: Of those currently saying they will vote BC Liberal, less than a quarter of them say that their second choice is either NDP or Green. The remainder, more than half, say they are undecided on a second choice.
Second: And this is something that has NOT been discussed seriously by the landed Lotuslandian proMedia pundit gentry this election cycle, fully half of those who say the are voting NDP also say that the Greens are their second choice.
Third: And this is the big one that cannot be denied by anyone, Mr. Weaver included, two thirds of those saying they will vote Green say that the Dippers are their second choice (see Mainstreet graphic, above). What's more, only 21% of Green voters indicate that the Cronification of Everything party is their second choice.
What does this all mean Alfie?
Well, here is my analysis....
A small point that matters: Unlike 2013, at this late date there is no way for BC Liberal vote to grow significantly given the complete of a Cummingsified Con presence to pull from this time around. This was illustrated by last week's Forum poll that shaved a significant percentage off the Liberal vote when it included 'Conservative' as a choice (see bottom of post, here).
A bigger, more important point: It would be a disaster if even a small portion of the soft Dipper vote were to go Green.
The really, really big/most important point: A massive chunk of the Green vote is a progressive one that would never seriously consider voting BC Liberal but could go NDP (and probably came from the Dipper camp in the first place, particularly the part that is not millennial-driven).
Upshot?
I would posit that the last 36 hours would be best spent if Mr. Horgan et al. were to make it (even more) abundantly clear to progressive folks leaning Green everywhere what will happen if they stay that way.
Because that vote, particularly the aspect of it that hates the cronies and all that they are doing to our province and those British Columbians that need our help most, is the one they have to get back to win.
OK?
________
And, given how important the numbers above are, I for one, do not understand why every single reporter covering Mr. Weaver is not asking him what, specifically, he will do if his party gains the balance of power in a minority government on Tuesday.
Iron Cronebird?....Blame Preston Manning backed with a dash of Murray Edwards.
Update: It goes without saying that, respectfully, I do not agree with David Beers' take on why Mr. Weaver is willing to sidle up to Ms. Clark...Why?...Because, again, the data say there is little to be gained from attempting 'woo' soft BC Liberal voters and, conversely everything for Mr. Weaver to lose by pissing off progressives who are leaning towards him...The latter, in my opinion, is Mr. Weaver's (potential) achilles heel.
Update II (Monday lunchtime): New polls out today make it abundantly clear why soft Green leaners with a progressive streak must vote NDP if they want to prevent a Liberal majority with any certainty whatsoever.
.
Friday, May 05, 2017
BC Election Going Down....Your Best Friday Night Read.
SomePunditsHave(ALot)MoreToSay
ThanOthersVille
Rather than bothering to read the Dean argue with himself, sans actual data, as he heads to the horse race betting window to buy a cheap quinella ticket fronted by a reduced Clarklandian majority, I suggest you instead go and read a pundit who actually has something to say about something that actually matters.
That would be Merv Adey:
...An ABC (Anybody But Clark) vote is not worth the cogitation required because this election is down to the energy of volunteers now and the “Get Out the Vote” machinery…. To my mind, the workers for all three campaign are sufficiently energized to put out their best effort.
So I’m asking the undecided to think about it… When it comes to the ethical and legal failures I’ve spent the last two years blogging about, no informed voter can possibly accept the BCLiberal record. But the time for me to recount it all and complain of mainstream media laziness in some quarters (not all) ?? That’s over.
The fact the BCLiberals are close to being returned is evidence of a real right-wing and centre right natural leaning of the province.
But consider the NDP…On day one of a Horgan mandate, you get the end of donor dollars unduly influencing government policy to the detriment of 98% of us… You get the end of the Wild West not only of political donations, but also defunding of public education and the Wild West of environmental pillage with shockingly reduced returns to the public treasury..
As soon as big money, corporate AND union donation end, we get a start to a government in which need, and the greatest benefit to the public as a whole dictates public decision making. We get a start to having wide concerns about public accountability listened to and not dismissed.
There… that’s done. I’m not done. Whatever the result next week, I will blog as needed when something I feel is wrong with government. I will agree on policy more often if Horgan wins, so I may get a bit quiet in such as case… But I promise integrity and accountability will remain my top concerns….
Think. Vote. Get others to the polls if you can.
If this election campaign has shown us one thing it is that the words of principled amateur pundits are worth a gazillion times those of the local pros.
Go figure.
______
And then, of course, there is Ron Obvious (who clearly did not receive an interview from Patrick Kinsella and Mark Jiles' number one horse) taking a huge bit out of Chichester Cathedral...In Kamloops!...Sheesh.
Please note: I am not talking about the non-stenographic local proMedia reporters here....Those folks have the most worth of all, particularly when they are unleashed by editors who have been shamed into doing so when outsiders (i.e. a guy named Levin) get the ball rolling...OK?
.
ThanOthersVille
Rather than bothering to read the Dean argue with himself, sans actual data, as he heads to the horse race betting window to buy a cheap quinella ticket fronted by a reduced Clarklandian majority, I suggest you instead go and read a pundit who actually has something to say about something that actually matters.
That would be Merv Adey:
...An ABC (Anybody But Clark) vote is not worth the cogitation required because this election is down to the energy of volunteers now and the “Get Out the Vote” machinery…. To my mind, the workers for all three campaign are sufficiently energized to put out their best effort.
So I’m asking the undecided to think about it… When it comes to the ethical and legal failures I’ve spent the last two years blogging about, no informed voter can possibly accept the BCLiberal record. But the time for me to recount it all and complain of mainstream media laziness in some quarters (not all) ?? That’s over.
The fact the BCLiberals are close to being returned is evidence of a real right-wing and centre right natural leaning of the province.
But consider the NDP…On day one of a Horgan mandate, you get the end of donor dollars unduly influencing government policy to the detriment of 98% of us… You get the end of the Wild West not only of political donations, but also defunding of public education and the Wild West of environmental pillage with shockingly reduced returns to the public treasury..
As soon as big money, corporate AND union donation end, we get a start to a government in which need, and the greatest benefit to the public as a whole dictates public decision making. We get a start to having wide concerns about public accountability listened to and not dismissed.
There… that’s done. I’m not done. Whatever the result next week, I will blog as needed when something I feel is wrong with government. I will agree on policy more often if Horgan wins, so I may get a bit quiet in such as case… But I promise integrity and accountability will remain my top concerns….
Think. Vote. Get others to the polls if you can.
If this election campaign has shown us one thing it is that the words of principled amateur pundits are worth a gazillion times those of the local pros.
Go figure.
______
And then, of course, there is Ron Obvious (who clearly did not receive an interview from Patrick Kinsella and Mark Jiles' number one horse) taking a huge bit out of Chichester Cathedral...In Kamloops!...Sheesh.
Please note: I am not talking about the non-stenographic local proMedia reporters here....Those folks have the most worth of all, particularly when they are unleashed by editors who have been shamed into doing so when outsiders (i.e. a guy named Levin) get the ball rolling...OK?
.
Wednesday, May 03, 2017
Weaver Kinda/Sorta/Maybe/Doesn't Really But Just Might Back Clarklandia...Can The BC Liberal-Financed Ads Supporting Him Be Far Behind?
It'sLike2009And2013AllOver
AgainVille
From the (original) lede of a Global TeeVee summary of the good Mr. Weaver's interview with the Keef:
If push comes to shove and BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver had to strike a deal with another party to form a minority government, the former climate scientist said he would choose the Liberals...
So...
No progressive can now pretend that a vote for one of Mr. Weaver's parachute candidates is NOT a vote for a continuation of the total triumph of the corporate cronies.
OK?
______
As for that ad thing mentioned in the header to the post?....Well, you know....Sterk!
Re: The Update...Gosh....How could the Keef possibly let all this inaccuracy happen?...I mean, it's almost as if he and his went out and hired a bunch of idiot bloggers to write copy based on his interviews, or some such thing.
.
AgainVille
_____
Update, 9:00pm Wed May3rd....Global now retracts its original lede...But as 'Sub Boreal' notes in the comment thread the interview itself is still filled with comments from Mr. Weaver that he can't work with Mr. Horgan..Thus, post-header has been revised into 'equivocal' form...Ha!
_____
From the (original) lede of a Global TeeVee summary of the good Mr. Weaver's interview with the Keef:
If push comes to shove and BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver had to strike a deal with another party to form a minority government, the former climate scientist said he would choose the Liberals...
So...
No progressive can now pretend that a vote for one of Mr. Weaver's parachute candidates is NOT a vote for a continuation of the total triumph of the corporate cronies.
OK?
______
As for that ad thing mentioned in the header to the post?....Well, you know....Sterk!
Re: The Update...Gosh....How could the Keef possibly let all this inaccuracy happen?...I mean, it's almost as if he and his went out and hired a bunch of idiot bloggers to write copy based on his interviews, or some such thing.
.
This Desperate Day In Clarkland...The Low Information Candidate.
WhatMe
WorryVille
From Marcella Bernardo, now workin' it hard (and very well) for CKWX:
While campaigning in Kelowna, she (Christy Clark) was asked about an investigation which revealed more than $140-million worth of (provincial) tax dollars have been spent giving tax breaks to more than 80 foreign companies.
Here’s how Clark responded to the claim only 300 jobs have been created by Advantage BC.
“I am really impressed that you made it all the way through that article and were able to figure out what the guy was trying to say.”...
Gosh.
Is it possible that Ms. Clark, she a former member of the local ProMedia, thinks that the inverted pyramid lede should lead every story that is critical of her government's policies straight into the deepest, darkest corner of King Tut's tomb?
In the particular case of the New York Times story under consideration by Dan Levin, I reckon the lede actually leads to this million watt candlepower blowtorch:
...Participating companies have created few jobs, according to government figures, while more than 140 million Canadian dollars ($106 million) have been doled out in (BC provincial) tax refunds since 2008, when the initiative was expanded...
The incentives operate under a cloak of secrecy that is unusual for similar efforts in Canada and the United States, critics say. The province (of BC) will not name the companies that get the breaks. The only information available about them is on the website of a nonprofit that promotes the program.
“This is essentially a temporary foreign-worker program for the rich, with secret government subsidies for multinational corporations,” said Dermod Travis, the executive director of IntegrityBC, a nonpartisan political watchdog group based in Victoria, the provincial capital. “The government is selling B.C. as a tax haven for the global elite to park investment here, but not have to contribute.”...
What's for our fine Premier not to understand?
Except, of course, that long division would tell her that $140 million could fund 2.7 million bus passes for the disabled.
Yes.
You read that number right.
.
WorryVille
From Marcella Bernardo, now workin' it hard (and very well) for CKWX:
While campaigning in Kelowna, she (Christy Clark) was asked about an investigation which revealed more than $140-million worth of (provincial) tax dollars have been spent giving tax breaks to more than 80 foreign companies.
Here’s how Clark responded to the claim only 300 jobs have been created by Advantage BC.
“I am really impressed that you made it all the way through that article and were able to figure out what the guy was trying to say.”...
Gosh.
Is it possible that Ms. Clark, she a former member of the local ProMedia, thinks that the inverted pyramid lede should lead every story that is critical of her government's policies straight into the deepest, darkest corner of King Tut's tomb?
In the particular case of the New York Times story under consideration by Dan Levin, I reckon the lede actually leads to this million watt candlepower blowtorch:
...Participating companies have created few jobs, according to government figures, while more than 140 million Canadian dollars ($106 million) have been doled out in (BC provincial) tax refunds since 2008, when the initiative was expanded...
The incentives operate under a cloak of secrecy that is unusual for similar efforts in Canada and the United States, critics say. The province (of BC) will not name the companies that get the breaks. The only information available about them is on the website of a nonprofit that promotes the program.
“This is essentially a temporary foreign-worker program for the rich, with secret government subsidies for multinational corporations,” said Dermod Travis, the executive director of IntegrityBC, a nonpartisan political watchdog group based in Victoria, the provincial capital. “The government is selling B.C. as a tax haven for the global elite to park investment here, but not have to contribute.”...
What's for our fine Premier not to understand?
Except, of course, that long division would tell her that $140 million could fund 2.7 million bus passes for the disabled.
Yes.
You read that number right.
.
Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Globe Editorial Misses Boat Entirely On Outrage That Led To Online Success Of #IAmLinda.
SomeThingsAreMuchMoreObvious
ThanOthersVille
Well, well, well...
Turns out the Globe and (NoLongerEmpire) Mail's editorialists are just as adept, if not more so, at missing the obvious as is a certain well known west coast-based columnist in their employ.
In this particular case they have concluded that the #IAmLinda outrage is nothing more than a case of nameless and faceless misplaced manufacturement:
Or some such thing:
Of all the interactions ever to occur between a voter and a campaigning politician, the one last week between BC Liberal Party Leader Christy Clark and a woman in a North Vancouver market has got to be among the most anodyne.
Except, of course, that this one was caught on camera and went viral on Twitter, where it is being used against Ms. Clark.
We’re not buying it. Anyone who wants to can see the incident online and judge for themselves...
{snippety doo-dah}
...The voter in question, Linda Higgins, is an innocent party in all of this. There’s no evidence she was looking to make news, or that she was an NDP plant. She deserves no condemnation.
But neither did Ms. Clark do anything wrong. In fact, in the hurly-burly of a closely fought election campaign, she handled it well...
{snippety doodle-dandy}
...If there is a larger sense among some B.C. voters that the Liberal Party has grown arrogant after so many years in power, that’s fair. But the fact that a garden-variety exchange between a voter and a politician has become a distracting political incident on Twitter speaks more about a social medium that feeds on easy outrage than it does about the real issues in this election.
But here's the thing the fine folks at the Globe missed...
The real outrage about all of this started when, in a desperate attempt at deflector spike spin, Clarklandian campaign wizards claimed, all evidence to the contrary, that the citizen in question was an NDP plant.
And that is the real story - the fact that people like Mark Marissen and Laura Miller will say anything about anybody when they decide that the channel must be changed to take the heat off of their horse in the race.
Or, put another way...
Twitter the platform doesn't knowingly make stuff up about people to smear them.
Instead, people who use Twitter do.
People like the two BC Liberal party operatives named above.
OK?
.
ThanOthersVille
______
Update, 8:00pm Tuesday May 2nd....We're very glad to see that, on this one at least, Mr. Mason of the Globe is suddenly making an effort to...keep up.
______
Well, well, well...
Turns out the Globe and (NoLongerEmpire) Mail's editorialists are just as adept, if not more so, at missing the obvious as is a certain well known west coast-based columnist in their employ.
In this particular case they have concluded that the #IAmLinda outrage is nothing more than a case of nameless and faceless misplaced manufacturement:
Or some such thing:
Of all the interactions ever to occur between a voter and a campaigning politician, the one last week between BC Liberal Party Leader Christy Clark and a woman in a North Vancouver market has got to be among the most anodyne.
Except, of course, that this one was caught on camera and went viral on Twitter, where it is being used against Ms. Clark.
We’re not buying it. Anyone who wants to can see the incident online and judge for themselves...
{snippety doo-dah}
...The voter in question, Linda Higgins, is an innocent party in all of this. There’s no evidence she was looking to make news, or that she was an NDP plant. She deserves no condemnation.
But neither did Ms. Clark do anything wrong. In fact, in the hurly-burly of a closely fought election campaign, she handled it well...
{snippety doodle-dandy}
...If there is a larger sense among some B.C. voters that the Liberal Party has grown arrogant after so many years in power, that’s fair. But the fact that a garden-variety exchange between a voter and a politician has become a distracting political incident on Twitter speaks more about a social medium that feeds on easy outrage than it does about the real issues in this election.
But here's the thing the fine folks at the Globe missed...
The real outrage about all of this started when, in a desperate attempt at deflector spike spin, Clarklandian campaign wizards claimed, all evidence to the contrary, that the citizen in question was an NDP plant.
And that is the real story - the fact that people like Mark Marissen and Laura Miller will say anything about anybody when they decide that the channel must be changed to take the heat off of their horse in the race.
Or, put another way...
Twitter the platform doesn't knowingly make stuff up about people to smear them.
Instead, people who use Twitter do.
People like the two BC Liberal party operatives named above.
OK?
.
Some Hard Truths And A Little Hope In Yesterday's Ipsos Numbers.
TeaLeaves
GoingDownVille
At this point in an election trends matter and the numbers from yesterday's Ipsos poll have things going the wrong way, with the BCL up a few and the Dippers down a few. That puts the general, both for Ipsos and Justason, in a statistical tie.
The Clarklandians' greatest strength, apparently, is still the 'Economy' which means that the stenography on the part of the local proMedia (stenography like this from Mr. Bailey of the Globe) is working and the real truth is not getting out.
So.
What does it all mean?
Well, as you might expect, it means that Mr. Horgan et al. need every single seat if they are going to have a chance.
Especially in ridings where things are historically close and, regionally, on the island (which is absolutely required given the fact that, apparently, the hurtland still wants to vote against its own best interests).
Which further means that if everything goes right for the NDP and they get their Mr. Beer 'N Hockey-assisted ground game running at peak efficiency the Greens can still lose it for them.
And don't give me that 'folks who vote Green also vote Liberal' codswallop'?
Why?
Because it's all there, writ large, in Ipsos' drill down numbers:
-Among BC Liberals voters, their second choice remains equally between the NDP (28%) and Greens (26%).
-Among NDP voters, their second choice still strongly favours the Greens (53%) over the BC Liberals (15%).
-Among Green voters, the NDP (45%) remains much more likely than BC Liberals (14%) to be their second choice.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but, the real message of the last week has to be 'Progressives don't let their friends vote Green' unless, of course, they secretly want the cronification of everything to continue until, finally, there is nothing left of our fair province.
_____
Where's the hope?....Well, Horgan is winning on overall positives straight-up vs. Clark...The Dipper age demos are solid in the middle and they do not have to rely on a big youth vote to win...Finally, unlike last time out, there is nowhere, really, for the Clarklandians to grow given that there is no blueCon rump lingering like there was last time courtesy the destruction of the good Mr. Cummings...
Of course, all of the above could be pure bull hockey because we, the public, are not getting any riding-specific numbers whatsoever.
Update: Today's Forum poll has the Dippers up by eight over the Clarklandians...But, before you get too excited please realize that Forum has a 'Conservative' column that is getting 7% which is codswallop given that there only 10 Cons running...Thus when low info folks of that ilk get in the booth and can find no Con who do you think they will choose?....Thus, taking that 7% and giving it to the BCL brings things pretty much right to where Ipsos has them.
.
GoingDownVille
______
See update at bottom of post for a comment on today's brand spanking new Forum numbers...Upshot: The whiplash from the daily poll changes may be a phantom one
______
At this point in an election trends matter and the numbers from yesterday's Ipsos poll have things going the wrong way, with the BCL up a few and the Dippers down a few. That puts the general, both for Ipsos and Justason, in a statistical tie.
The Clarklandians' greatest strength, apparently, is still the 'Economy' which means that the stenography on the part of the local proMedia (stenography like this from Mr. Bailey of the Globe) is working and the real truth is not getting out.
So.
What does it all mean?
Well, as you might expect, it means that Mr. Horgan et al. need every single seat if they are going to have a chance.
Especially in ridings where things are historically close and, regionally, on the island (which is absolutely required given the fact that, apparently, the hurtland still wants to vote against its own best interests).
Which further means that if everything goes right for the NDP and they get their Mr. Beer 'N Hockey-assisted ground game running at peak efficiency the Greens can still lose it for them.
And don't give me that 'folks who vote Green also vote Liberal' codswallop'?
Why?
Because it's all there, writ large, in Ipsos' drill down numbers:
-Among BC Liberals voters, their second choice remains equally between the NDP (28%) and Greens (26%).
-Among NDP voters, their second choice still strongly favours the Greens (53%) over the BC Liberals (15%).
-Among Green voters, the NDP (45%) remains much more likely than BC Liberals (14%) to be their second choice.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but, the real message of the last week has to be 'Progressives don't let their friends vote Green' unless, of course, they secretly want the cronification of everything to continue until, finally, there is nothing left of our fair province.
_____
Where's the hope?....Well, Horgan is winning on overall positives straight-up vs. Clark...The Dipper age demos are solid in the middle and they do not have to rely on a big youth vote to win...Finally, unlike last time out, there is nowhere, really, for the Clarklandians to grow given that there is no blueCon rump lingering like there was last time courtesy the destruction of the good Mr. Cummings...
Of course, all of the above could be pure bull hockey because we, the public, are not getting any riding-specific numbers whatsoever.
Update: Today's Forum poll has the Dippers up by eight over the Clarklandians...But, before you get too excited please realize that Forum has a 'Conservative' column that is getting 7% which is codswallop given that there only 10 Cons running...Thus when low info folks of that ilk get in the booth and can find no Con who do you think they will choose?....Thus, taking that 7% and giving it to the BCL brings things pretty much right to where Ipsos has them.
.
Saturday, April 29, 2017
This Weekend In Clarkland....Discredit Everyone.
KloutKlub
GoneWildVille
First, from the corner marked 'integrity' in the Wizards' war room...
Next, Marky Mark lights his pants on fire...
Fine bunch of folks I reckon.
________
A little birdy tells me that the Keef may have been the friendified cut-out on this 'story'...Does anyone have a link?
.
GoneWildVille
First, from the corner marked 'integrity' in the Wizards' war room...
Next, Marky Mark lights his pants on fire...
Fine bunch of folks I reckon.
________
A little birdy tells me that the Keef may have been the friendified cut-out on this 'story'...Does anyone have a link?
.
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
This Day In Scared Crapless Clarklandia...The Back End Of The Push.
AllTheirPolls
'RThemVille
Yesterday, we noted how Ron Obvious, he of the Globe And No Longer Empire Mail, got pushed by Socred/BCLiberal operative Greg Lyle to lower public expectations on polls to come showing the Dippers surging in the wake of the first leaders' debate last week.
We also noted Mr. Lyle's previous tag team efforts with Clarklandian wizard Mike McDonald.
And then, once those Dippers surging polls came out we got the back end from the good Mr. McDonald courtesy Mikey Mike in the Province:
Christy Clark’s campaign war room has issued an urgent warning to her Liberal party troops on the ground:
New polls showing the NDP with a big lead are to be taken seriously. Don’t count on the pollsters to be wrong again. You’re going to have to work for every vote to win.
“This campaign is a dogfight,” senior Liberal strategist Mike McDonald wrote on his daily campaign blog Tuesday.
“I do not discount the potential of an NDP victory. They are tough adversaries.”
The warning from the party brass comes after a Mainstreet Research poll put John Horgan’s NDP on top with 44 per cent of decided votes, a full 10 points ahead of the Liberals at 34 per cent...
So.
Given all this, will the Clarklandians double down and continue to smear Horgan for actually fighting, for real.
Or.
Will they throw caution to the windscreen and start blaming Dave Barrett for creating ICBC?
I reckon we'll have the answer about halfway through tonight's debate when the digital warriors of the Klout Klub start bleating.
If you get my drift.
______
Don't know about you but I sure do enjoy watching the local puffed-up punditry hoist themselves up onto their own evils of insider access petard.
.
'RThemVille
Yesterday, we noted how Ron Obvious, he of the Globe And No Longer Empire Mail, got pushed by Socred/BCLiberal operative Greg Lyle to lower public expectations on polls to come showing the Dippers surging in the wake of the first leaders' debate last week.
We also noted Mr. Lyle's previous tag team efforts with Clarklandian wizard Mike McDonald.
And then, once those Dippers surging polls came out we got the back end from the good Mr. McDonald courtesy Mikey Mike in the Province:
Christy Clark’s campaign war room has issued an urgent warning to her Liberal party troops on the ground:
New polls showing the NDP with a big lead are to be taken seriously. Don’t count on the pollsters to be wrong again. You’re going to have to work for every vote to win.
“This campaign is a dogfight,” senior Liberal strategist Mike McDonald wrote on his daily campaign blog Tuesday.
“I do not discount the potential of an NDP victory. They are tough adversaries.”
The warning from the party brass comes after a Mainstreet Research poll put John Horgan’s NDP on top with 44 per cent of decided votes, a full 10 points ahead of the Liberals at 34 per cent...
So.
Given all this, will the Clarklandians double down and continue to smear Horgan for actually fighting, for real.
Or.
Will they throw caution to the windscreen and start blaming Dave Barrett for creating ICBC?
I reckon we'll have the answer about halfway through tonight's debate when the digital warriors of the Klout Klub start bleating.
If you get my drift.
______
Don't know about you but I sure do enjoy watching the local puffed-up punditry hoist themselves up onto their own evils of insider access petard.
.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
This Day In Clarkland...Did Ron Obvious Count His Poll Numbers Before They Hatched?
DeflectorSpikeSpinHasAlwaysBeenTheir
RealGameVille
Last weekend Mr. Mason, he of the Globe (AndNoLongerEmpire) Mail, published a piece in which he implied that, even if their (then) slightly favourable poll numbers were to hold, the Dippers probably won't win:
Elections in British Columbia are always an uphill battle for the New Democratic Party and, despite polls putting it ahead, this one is no different.
As the electoral history of this province has demonstrated, a lot has to go right for the NDP to win a general vote. More often than not, triumph is the result of some breakdown in the centre-right coalition that has ruled British Columbia, under a couple of different political institutions, for all but 13 of the past 65 years. The conditions for that type of wholesale collapse are not evident this time around...
Interestingly, Mr. Mason relied on a pollster by the name of Greg Lyle for a big thwack of faux sage-brushed wisdom in his piece:
...While British Columbians are undoubtedly dissatisfied with the Liberal government on many counts, Mr. Lyle does not believe that enmity is deeply entrenched. In his (own) March poll, he asked those surveyed to respond to the assessment: “I am so angry at the BC Liberal party I will never vote for them again.” Just 34 per cent of respondents agreed.
“That is a pretty low number,” Mr. Lyle said in an interview. “People might be upset at the government, but how motivated are they to do something about it? That is the key question. And our poll indicated that the anger level is not very deep, so the Liberals would have to be encouraged by that.”...
{snip}
...While Mr. Lyle holds the view the NDP is in tough given the significant seat advantage the Liberals hold, he is someone who knows first-hand anything can happen. He was campaign director for the Liberals in 1996, the year Gordon Campbell led them into battle and lost, even though the party received more of the popular vote.
Could that happen again? Mr. Lyle thinks so, but this time it could be the NDP at the bitter losing end of that equation.
“The more likely scenario this time would be NDP wins more votes, but Liberals win more seats because of the distribution of votes among seats,” he said. “What has changed since ‘96 is the Libs have strengthened their hold on rural seats and the NDP have done better in urban seats. So that means, bottom line, the NDP could be a bit ahead in the polls and still lose the election.”...
Now.
Why would an old Socred/BC Liberal hand like Mr. Lyle, a most fine fellow who in the past has worked on joint projects with Mr. Mike MacDonald, the Clarklandian insider who also just happens to be the spouse of the current CEO of BC Hydro, have been throwing NDP expectations lowering advice Mr. Mason's way, based on an old poll, at that specific moment in time (i.e. late last week)?
I mean, it's almost as if Mr. Lyle was staring into the heart of some very dark internal numbers last Thursday/Friday that were telling him that the wizards of Clarklandia were in big, big trouble in the wake of the first radio debate.
And then, today, courtesy of Simon Little at CKNW we get....
This:
We’re getting a look at the first set of numbers to come out since last week’s radio leaders debate, and they suggest the NDP has the advantage.
The Main Street/Postmedia poll, conducted April 20-22, suggests despite what some had characterized as an over aggressive debate performance the NDP has built a ten per cent lead provincewide among decided and leaning voters.
The survey pegs the NDP at 44 per cent (+5), the BC Liberals at 34 (-3), and the BC Greens at 22 per cent (+1)...
I, for one, await Rob Obvious' mea culpa with barely bated breath.
.
RealGameVille
Last weekend Mr. Mason, he of the Globe (AndNoLongerEmpire) Mail, published a piece in which he implied that, even if their (then) slightly favourable poll numbers were to hold, the Dippers probably won't win:
Elections in British Columbia are always an uphill battle for the New Democratic Party and, despite polls putting it ahead, this one is no different.
As the electoral history of this province has demonstrated, a lot has to go right for the NDP to win a general vote. More often than not, triumph is the result of some breakdown in the centre-right coalition that has ruled British Columbia, under a couple of different political institutions, for all but 13 of the past 65 years. The conditions for that type of wholesale collapse are not evident this time around...
Interestingly, Mr. Mason relied on a pollster by the name of Greg Lyle for a big thwack of faux sage-brushed wisdom in his piece:
...While British Columbians are undoubtedly dissatisfied with the Liberal government on many counts, Mr. Lyle does not believe that enmity is deeply entrenched. In his (own) March poll, he asked those surveyed to respond to the assessment: “I am so angry at the BC Liberal party I will never vote for them again.” Just 34 per cent of respondents agreed.
“That is a pretty low number,” Mr. Lyle said in an interview. “People might be upset at the government, but how motivated are they to do something about it? That is the key question. And our poll indicated that the anger level is not very deep, so the Liberals would have to be encouraged by that.”...
{snip}
...While Mr. Lyle holds the view the NDP is in tough given the significant seat advantage the Liberals hold, he is someone who knows first-hand anything can happen. He was campaign director for the Liberals in 1996, the year Gordon Campbell led them into battle and lost, even though the party received more of the popular vote.
Could that happen again? Mr. Lyle thinks so, but this time it could be the NDP at the bitter losing end of that equation.
“The more likely scenario this time would be NDP wins more votes, but Liberals win more seats because of the distribution of votes among seats,” he said. “What has changed since ‘96 is the Libs have strengthened their hold on rural seats and the NDP have done better in urban seats. So that means, bottom line, the NDP could be a bit ahead in the polls and still lose the election.”...
Now.
Why would an old Socred/BC Liberal hand like Mr. Lyle, a most fine fellow who in the past has worked on joint projects with Mr. Mike MacDonald, the Clarklandian insider who also just happens to be the spouse of the current CEO of BC Hydro, have been throwing NDP expectations lowering advice Mr. Mason's way, based on an old poll, at that specific moment in time (i.e. late last week)?
I mean, it's almost as if Mr. Lyle was staring into the heart of some very dark internal numbers last Thursday/Friday that were telling him that the wizards of Clarklandia were in big, big trouble in the wake of the first radio debate.
And then, today, courtesy of Simon Little at CKNW we get....
This:
We’re getting a look at the first set of numbers to come out since last week’s radio leaders debate, and they suggest the NDP has the advantage.
The Main Street/Postmedia poll, conducted April 20-22, suggests despite what some had characterized as an over aggressive debate performance the NDP has built a ten per cent lead provincewide among decided and leaning voters.
The survey pegs the NDP at 44 per cent (+5), the BC Liberals at 34 (-3), and the BC Greens at 22 per cent (+1)...
I, for one, await Rob Obvious' mea culpa with barely bated breath.
.
Monday, April 24, 2017
Big Money Liberal Donor Successfully Petitions US Government To Destroy BC Jobs.
SomeDollarsAreDarkerThan
OthersVille
Weyerhaeuser is an American forest products company.
In the last 11 plus years Weyerhaeuser proper has donated more than $230,000 dollars to the BC Liberal Party:
Last fall Weyerhaeuser petitioned the US government to kill forest company jobs in British Columbia (see pg 10 of pdf):
And, today, Weyerhaeuser's wishes came true.
Allegedly:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he would impose a 20 percent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a White House official and two people present when he made the comment at a reception for conservative journalists...
Now.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but....
I'm pretty sure the Steelworkers have never done such a thing.
_______
For the record, Weyerhaeuser has given less than 10% of the BCL amount to the provincial Dippers over the same period.
Tip O' The Toque to Dipper Oppo guy Tim Howlett for the heads-up on the Twittmachine.
.
OthersVille
Weyerhaeuser is an American forest products company.
In the last 11 plus years Weyerhaeuser proper has donated more than $230,000 dollars to the BC Liberal Party:
Last fall Weyerhaeuser petitioned the US government to kill forest company jobs in British Columbia (see pg 10 of pdf):
And, today, Weyerhaeuser's wishes came true.
Allegedly:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he would impose a 20 percent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a White House official and two people present when he made the comment at a reception for conservative journalists...
Now.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but....
I'm pretty sure the Steelworkers have never done such a thing.
_______
For the record, Weyerhaeuser has given less than 10% of the BCL amount to the provincial Dippers over the same period.
Tip O' The Toque to Dipper Oppo guy Tim Howlett for the heads-up on the Twittmachine.
.
Last Sunday In Clarkland...The Photo-Op Finisher.
CanYouGetADegreeFromTheSorbonne
IfYouJustShowUpForGraduationVille
From Hana Mae Nassar's breathless coverage of a recent double photo-op by our fine Premier posted to the CKWX website:
...(Christy) Clark joined tens of thousands of people taking part in today’s yesterday's Vancouver Sun Run. While she didn’t run the full race, Christy Clark says events such as the Sun Run are a good way to build community....
Gosh.
It is my understanding that Ms. Clark was there at the start and the finish for pictures galore.
As for all that hard work required to actually get through the middle bits?
Not so much
Of course, grandstanding without actually running, means Ms. Clark had plenty of time to spout messages about her 'message' to the attending stenographers without actually having to submit said 'message' to any real scrutiny whatsoever:
...Joined by fellow Liberal candidates, she (Ms. Clark) is nothing but confident when asked how her campaign is going so far.
“I’ve been feeling really good about it, I mean I’m always an optimist. And my job is just to make sure people know what we stand for, what I want to do if I get a second term as Premier and I feel like we’re working hard to get that message out.”...
Hmmmmmm....
If that is really the case one can only wonder why the good Ms. Clark was not on McComb's little morning radio show this morning as was the case with the other two party leaders?
.
IfYouJustShowUpForGraduationVille
From Hana Mae Nassar's breathless coverage of a recent double photo-op by our fine Premier posted to the CKWX website:
...(Christy) Clark joined tens of thousands of people taking part in today’s yesterday's Vancouver Sun Run. While she didn’t run the full race, Christy Clark says events such as the Sun Run are a good way to build community....
Gosh.
It is my understanding that Ms. Clark was there at the start and the finish for pictures galore.
As for all that hard work required to actually get through the middle bits?
Not so much
Of course, grandstanding without actually running, means Ms. Clark had plenty of time to spout messages about her 'message' to the attending stenographers without actually having to submit said 'message' to any real scrutiny whatsoever:
...Joined by fellow Liberal candidates, she (Ms. Clark) is nothing but confident when asked how her campaign is going so far.
“I’ve been feeling really good about it, I mean I’m always an optimist. And my job is just to make sure people know what we stand for, what I want to do if I get a second term as Premier and I feel like we’re working hard to get that message out.”...
Hmmmmmm....
If that is really the case one can only wonder why the good Ms. Clark was not on McComb's little morning radio show this morning as was the case with the other two party leaders?
.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Where Have All The Stealth LibCons Gone?
Gone to scaredy-cat hidey-holes everywhere.
Meanwhile....
In Prince George:
AiMHi is presenting yet another chance for residents to hear from candidates running for office in this year’s provincial election.
Spokesperson Fred McLeod says an all-candidates forum will take place next Thursday, April 27, from 7:00 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. in the AiMHi gymnasium at 950 Kerry Street.
He says candidates from the Prince George-Valemount and Prince George-Mackenzie ridings have been invited to attend...
{snip}
...He says the Liberals were provided with four possible dates in mid-March but were told by the Liberal campaign this week neither will be attending.
McLeod says he’s disappointed. “Absolutely, but we will continue without them. The challenges that people are facing are huge and they need to have an opportunity for those challenges to be brought to the fore in an election period and if government candidates choose not to be there I think it sends a statement.”
He says one of the biggest challenges facing the disadvantaged in all B.C. communities is the monthly payment of $1,033 persons with disabilities receive each month. That sum was bumped up $50 a month April 1, 2017....
Ahhhhh...
Now I get it.
They're too scared to face the disabled folks they've been screwing over for 16 years.
There is a name for that I believe.
_______
Kind of makes one wonder what would happen if kids in care, or seniors that need care, or homeless folks organized an all candidates meeting...Heads would likely explode in BCL war rooms everywhere.
And, just in case you've forgotten, the BC Liberal Party candidate in PG-Valemont is none other than RailGate origin story participant Ms. Bond....Shirley Bond.
.
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