Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Some Hard Truths And A Little Hope In Yesterday's Ipsos Numbers.



See update at bottom of post for a comment on today's brand spanking new Forum numbers...Upshot: The whiplash from the daily poll changes may be a phantom one

At this point in an election trends matter and the numbers from yesterday's Ipsos poll have things going the wrong way, with the BCL up a few and the Dippers down a few. That puts the general, both for Ipsos and Justason, in a statistical tie.

The Clarklandians' greatest strength, apparently, is still the 'Economy' which means that the stenography on the part of the local proMedia (stenography like this from Mr. Bailey of the Globe) is working and the real truth is not getting out.


What does it all mean?

Well, as you might expect, it means that Mr. Horgan et al. need every single seat if they are going to have a chance.

Especially in ridings where things are historically close and, regionally, on the island (which is absolutely required given the fact that, apparently, the hurtland still wants to vote against its own best interests).

Which further means that if everything goes right for the NDP and they get their Mr. Beer 'N Hockey-assisted ground game running at peak efficiency the Greens can still lose it for them.

And don't give me that 'folks who vote Green also vote Liberal' codswallop'?


Because it's all there, writ large, in Ipsos' drill down numbers:

-Among BC Liberals voters, their second choice remains equally between the NDP (28%) and Greens (26%).

-Among NDP voters, their second choice still strongly favours the Greens (53%) over the BC Liberals (15%).

-Among Green voters, the NDP (45%) remains much more likely than BC Liberals (14%) to be their second choice.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but, the real message of the last week has to be 'Progressives don't let their friends vote Green' unless, of course, they secretly want the cronification of everything to continue until, finally, there is nothing left of our fair province.

Where's the hope?....Well, Horgan is winning on overall positives straight-up vs. Clark...The Dipper age demos are solid in the middle and they do not have to rely on a big youth vote to win...Finally, unlike last time out, there is nowhere, really, for the Clarklandians to grow given that there is no blueCon rump lingering like there was last time courtesy the destruction of the good Mr. Cummings...
Of course, all of the above could be pure bull hockey because we, the public, are not getting any riding-specific numbers whatsoever.
Update: Today's Forum poll has the Dippers up by eight over the Clarklandians...But, before you get too excited please realize that Forum has a 'Conservative' column that is getting 7% which is codswallop given that there only 10 Cons running...Thus when low info folks of that ilk get in the booth and can find no Con who do you think they will choose?....Thus, taking that 7% and giving it to the BCL brings things pretty much right to where Ipsos has them.



Anonymous said...

Yes..people don't split the vote! The BC Liberal spin is fooling people. Don't ignore the truth and buy into the shallow rhetoric of mistruths and falsehoods of a group of deceptive and corrupt people.
We have a chance to change course and maybe even reverse some of the damage caused by this group of political manipulators, but only if we get a strong majority.
The Greens couldn't form a government, its a special interest party. Sure maybe in the future, but not now.
Now we have to remove the BC Liberals for all our sakes.

The BC NDP is the only viable alternate to remove the current malfeasant group, and form a majority to change the course of events in this province.

Don't allow the continued theft of resources and a host of other manipulative agendas to continue in this province. We are in a debt ridden mess, that will only get worse under the BC Liberals.

Grant G said...

@Ross K...in the Justason poll...NDP has a big edge with female voters,...

Interesting though...1127 total people polled in Justason survey 723 males polled...404 females polled..

36% of all responses were females...64% of all responses were male

of the 1127...492 under 35...almost 50% of those polled under 35..

Decided female voters...40.3% support NDP...31.3% support Libs

All female responses...29.1% support NDP...22.9% support Libs..

Detailed tables here.


Seems females have an easier time seeing beyond the mask

Grant G said...

Also...Steve Daring is polling his Burnaby riding like crazy(he's even polling outside his riding)...looks like Darling is in trouble...Cheers

Grant G said...

This poll confirms my numbers...big lead with female voters..




Anonymous said...

All vote NDP to get new voting system in, them vote what you want.cause you aint getting proportional representation with BClibs?or by splitting the vote.

RossK said...


Regarding that new Forum poll....Note that they've got the Cons in there...Take that 7% and move it to the BCL column (because there are only 10 candidates so the great majority of folks won't even have that choice in the booth) and you've got, essentially, the same numbers as IPSOS and Justason with the same trends (if not worse given the Green surge they are picking up).


Scotty on Denman said...

The No-Green-Split-Pleas are starting to dominate commentary here; Our new riding of Mid-Island Pacific Rim isn't as threatened by the Green Split as our old Comox Valley riding which has been split by the Greens in the BC Liberals' and Harper-Cons' favour five elections in a row (Comox is now a tiny urban riding which some have suggested was designed to advantage BC Liberal-voting Albetarian retire-a-gees' immigrating to Crown Isle, the gaudy gated gorod of godly golfers guttering grimly over (Ginger) Goodwin's grave)

I was accosted on the street last time for my usual plea in the local rag, always asks the same question: why do Greens willingly split the vote when it elects governments (fill-in-the-neo-right-blank) antithetical to their environmental credo? It's probably not very nice rhetoric because it suggests that Green supporters are worse than merely self-satisfied dreamers in a comfortable world of affirmation signalling, all their own: they're effectively a BC Liberal fifth column. That's some kinda honey, eh?

So I've taken to reminding that voting isn't the main act in the political play, activism and participation do that---this by way of saying Green activism is never for nought, but splitting the vote will continue to reverse Green political influence.

I note David Suzuki---whom I admire---is endorsing the Kootenay Green against the NDP incumbent; I just admire him a lot less now. Greens say warnings about vote-splitting are "old," that strategic voting is a "wasted vote," that Greens should vote their conscience. But that's all. The strategy is to plant, but not follow through on those points---not THINK through---like offering a verdant cornucopia except for that one tree, "...thou shalt not eat of it: for in the day that thou eatest thereof thou shalt surely die." Like the cleverest of all God's creatures said: "If you believe that, do I have a bicycle for you!"

One never hears what voting Green is supposed to achieve. Imagine what Greens say to maintain morale: that a Green vote is about building a party--- so supporters shouldn't necessarily worry about winning a seat or that the BC Liberals will get back in; that the Greens can win new seats because their polling numbers are way up---relative to their usual single-digit support between elections; that maybe the Greens can win the balance of power. Fair objectives, all, but, while Greens contend with the cherubim's flaming sword, the destruction of BC's environment and society continues apace.

I ask, respectfully, that Greens consider getting rid of the BC Liberals first: it does not diminish Green activism or party-building. It's not an ideological quandary, it's simply a circumstantial fact, and that can't change unless the BC Liberals are retired completely, with no authority to block investigation of their years in office. Imagine the prospect of a Green Official Opposition if the BC Liberals can no longer block forensic investigation of their regime. But, first things first.

I'm happy Green vote-splitting and strategic voting are being articulated this time and pray: that Green rejoinders will backfire; that potential Green voters will think this through: the best way forward is to first defeat the BC Liberals; and that their party will continue to influence to environmental policy without, just this once, voting their first electoral preference.

I go now to the letterbox, my shillelagh in hand (for medical reasons only, see who's reading my plea in the local rag, cledonomantically evesdropping on the latte-slurping pedants:

"Look, Grandma, a caduceus!"
"That's correctly called the Rod of Asclepius, child---"
"---or the devil on a pogo stick! Pass the honey, dear..."

It's only me, the scoliotic apple-peddlar---but nobody dies (that was just God's way of making a point).

Lenin's Ghost said...

Wow! That was rather intense, Scotty!

Really, the greens seem confused about what green means. Bike lanes and carbon taxes are pointless distractions.
Perhaps, they should jump on a plane, or bicycle, to Berlin and learn something.
These clowns are looking for a power play. They might get it if there is a minority govt.
If you truly believe in your party, vote for it.
If you are a likely one of the 90% of them vote green because it seems trendy and you know nothing about politics, FUCK OFF!

motorcycleguy said...

Scotty, I wrote to Suzuki around the last election and he was good enough to take the time to return a handwritten reply. My comments to him relayed great dismay of his support of alpine lake draining waterfall diverting penstock clearcutting powerline stringing river drying BC Hydro bankrupting IPP's.

He answered that a lot of times his statements are taken out of context and not really indicative of what he believes......his recent stumping for DreamWeaver (I am certain Christy plays that Gary Wright tune every nite at bedtime) seems to contradict that. Between Suzuki's admiration of Weaver this time and Tzep's proclamation of "IPP's R Good" last time ...I concur with you saying "my admiration of him is less now". That is unfortunate because since Grade 9 Science class he has been someone I looked up to.

It is of utmost importance to get Horgan in and get this province "uncorrupted"....4 more years will be too late. Horgan has committed to banning large corporate and union dues and to move away from the first past the post system. Let the Greens have at 'er next time around...with Christy in there will be no next time around for anyone....anyone that doesn't have an "arrangement" worked out with her ahead of time that is.

Grant G said...

Ross...Forum poll, it's clear that gave Conservatives as a option to vote for..Those who opted Conservatives obviously are not hardcore poli watchers ...or they would know there is only a handful running and no leader...

I mentioned the phone, a riding specific poll(automated)...The automated poll gave me only 2 options..Steve Darling or Katrina Chen...There was no Green choice, no Conservative choice...

Tells me Greens in that riding are not a threat