WhereTheDeanGoesThe
ClubFollowsVille
In response to our query about the Dean's first memo, the boss of the legislative press gallery has released a second more fulsome memo in the pixels of the VSun.
It starts like this:
Premier Christy Clark left it to cabinet minister Amrik Virk Thursday to respond to the information watchdog’s devastating findings about the culture of coverup inside the B.C. Liberal government.
Clark knew very well what was coming. Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham, respecting protocol, had shared her findings with the government in advance.
The government fired back with a legal letter, disputing some aspects of the report and seeking more time to respond. Denham, to her credit, stuck to the scheduled release time of 9:30 a.m. Thursday...
Which, to mine own eyes at least, indicates that Mr. Palmer, like us, did enjoy the fact that Ms. Denham ensured that the release of a public report was timed such that it would be discussed by the public's representatives in, you know...public.
Which is a good thing.
Right?
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Mr. Palmer goes through 3 or four of the journalistic 'W's in his piece but, as so often seems to be the case in his coverage of this (and the previous) BCL government, refuses to go anywhere near the fifth one otherwise known as 'Why'.
And, for those of you wondering (and/or scoffing)....Of course Mr. Palmer responds to what we discuss here at this little old F-troop list blog....Ha!
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Friday, October 23, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Memo From The Dean
'RNotUsVille
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Please see Update at the bottom of the post
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Gosh.
Maybe I'm wrong, but...
Is it possible that the Dean just might be suggesting that there is something underhanded and/or nefarious about an officer of the people releasing the people's business in such a fashion that it will actually be discussed by the peoples' representatives in a timely manner?
Or is he trying to tell us a slightly different thing?
Honestly, I can't tell if there is a 'Fog of Snark' here or not.
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What's it all about Alfie?....Well....This.
Update Friday Oct 23rd...The Dean has written a much longer 2nd 'official' (i.e. VSun column memo) in which he makes it clear he was telling us a slightly different thing...It's discussed (and linked to)....Here.
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This Day In Clarkland....Delete, Delete, Delete And...
....Delete Some More.
Sure....
There is the Transportation Ministry-specific stuff that privacy commissioner Elizabeth Denham has concluded indicates that the whistleblower rather than the politically-appointed staffer was telling the truth about the forced deletion of EMails that contained 'Highway of Tears' correspondence.
But, in addition to rampant deleting in the Advanced Education Ministry, according to Rob Shaw's piece in the VSun, there is also this:
...Denham’s report also zeroed in on Premier Christy Clark’s deputy chief of staff, Michele Cadario, noting that she keeps almost none of her emails
“The commissioner found that the broad interpretation given to transitory records by the deputy chief of staff, which results in her retaining almost no sent emails, effectively frustrates the Office of the Premier’s ability to comply with (section six, subsection one) of FIPPA (the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act),” wrote Denham in her report...
So.
Once again, we are inside the Premier's office.
Guess that would be the cue for Lotuslandian proMedia Club members to stop digging immediately.
Right?
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Commissioner Denham's full report can be found....Here.
And, ya, I swiped a chunk of the header from Horgan & Co...But, in my defence, I did go one 'delete' further.
Hmmmmm....I guess we now know why the Clarklandian wizards sent the messy hair guy out on to plank to tell us that we, the public, just aren't that into matters FOI last week..Or some such thing.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2015
The Rumours Of The Demise Of The Postmedia Print Organs...
...Have Not Been Greatly Exaggerated.
Paul Willcocks, off the blog and writing in the Tyee, has a good piece up on what those lockstep endorsements were really all about.
Here's a small chunk:
...(T)he endorsements mark a bleak day, or another bleak day, for Canadian newspapers.
Readers expect newspaper endorsements to reflect the careful judgments of editorial boards and the needs of their individual communities. A pro-Conservative Facebook friend, labouring under that delusion, celebrated the apparent tidal wave of endorsements for Harper from newspapers across the country.
Instead, it appears the endorsements actually reflect the views of one or two corporate managers in Toronto...
And just who do those 'managers' really work for?
Go read the rest of the piece to find out.
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More and more I'm wondering if we need to institute some sort of market/monopoly-busting reform in the media organ business in this country...I think Mr. W. might disagree for reasons of scale and business models and all that, but I really do wonder if a whole passel of independents might not do a better job and be more business healthy by actually operating as small scale operations.
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This Day (We're Still) In Clarkland...Document Dump Redux.
WasThereSomethingDominatingTheNewscycle
YesterdayVille
The office of British Columbia's Representative for Children and Youth released a report on May 14th, 2015 that started like this:
This report documents the downward spiral of a child who had great potential but never received the protection, nurturing and care she needed and deserved. Professional indifference to her life circumstances continually left her – and at times even actively placed her – in harm’s way...
And, surprise!, the government of Clarklandia released a response five months and four days later.
Which just happened to be yesterday.
Yesterday afternoon to be more precise.
One hour before the reporting of the Federal election results began to be even more precise.
Gosh.
I wonder what Ron Obvious thinks of that.
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YesterdayVille
The office of British Columbia's Representative for Children and Youth released a report on May 14th, 2015 that started like this:
This report documents the downward spiral of a child who had great potential but never received the protection, nurturing and care she needed and deserved. Professional indifference to her life circumstances continually left her – and at times even actively placed her – in harm’s way...
And, surprise!, the government of Clarklandia released a response five months and four days later.
Which just happened to be yesterday.
Yesterday afternoon to be more precise.
One hour before the reporting of the Federal election results began to be even more precise.
Gosh.
I wonder what Ron Obvious thinks of that.
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My Morning Ride
PaletteVille
A whole lot of red.
I could have done with a little more orange.
But all and all....
Much, much better than the alternative.
OK?
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Analysis of how things went in British Columbia in comparison to....Polls...Predictions...and Strategic Voting calls (including my own) is coming....
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Monday, October 19, 2015
#Elxn 42....What's The Buzz...Tell Me What's A Happening.
AfterSteve
TheDelugeVille
5:30pm Pacific....Just came out of the lab...Wow....Atlantic Canada a massive sea of red, including in stronghold Dipper and Con ridings...Is it possible that Mr. Trudeau has captured all the swing voters?
7:24pm Pacific...Just got home from bike ride...Liberals leading in Kelowna!...SH and friends were right!...Gotta wonder if this landslide coming down is due to young kids the pollsters couldn't reach...
7:58pm Pacific...Looks like the Liberal surge is helping to elect Cons outside Lower Mainland...VanIsle is looking an awfully lot like the Republic of Dave Barrett.
8:18pm Pacific...Is there anything more banal than than the mutterings of Stockwell Day?
8:59pm Pacific...Harper's so-called concession speech is exactly why he was not fit to be the Prime Minister of all Canadians.
9:57pm Pacific... Will be interesting to see if Tory rump is able to re-assert itself amongst the remaining Whackadoodle fringe.
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TheDelugeVille
5:30pm Pacific....Just came out of the lab...Wow....Atlantic Canada a massive sea of red, including in stronghold Dipper and Con ridings...Is it possible that Mr. Trudeau has captured all the swing voters?
7:24pm Pacific...Just got home from bike ride...Liberals leading in Kelowna!...SH and friends were right!...Gotta wonder if this landslide coming down is due to young kids the pollsters couldn't reach...
7:58pm Pacific...Looks like the Liberal surge is helping to elect Cons outside Lower Mainland...VanIsle is looking an awfully lot like the Republic of Dave Barrett.
8:18pm Pacific...Is there anything more banal than than the mutterings of Stockwell Day?
8:59pm Pacific...Harper's so-called concession speech is exactly why he was not fit to be the Prime Minister of all Canadians.
9:57pm Pacific... Will be interesting to see if Tory rump is able to re-assert itself amongst the remaining Whackadoodle fringe.
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Sunday, October 18, 2015
Stopping Cons In Lotusland...A Riding-By-Riding Compendium For All Of British Columbia.
WeAreTheSeventy
PercentVille
The following are my best guestimates about what you can (and, just as importantly, I suppose, can't) do to try and 'Stop the Cons' in every single riding in British Columbia...
The totals are: 'Vote Strategically For The Dipper' in 14 ridings... 'Vote Strategically For The Liberal' in 9 ridings...'Vote Your Conscience' in 19 ridings...
Feel free to throw in your two cents in the comments...
I'll make changes that make sense and/or where I've messed up right up until the last minute Sunday night....
Abbotsford: Vote your conscience...There have been no riding-specific polls here and history says the Con should be way ahead...But, never under estimate the work of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey and friends to raise the Dipper vote.
Burnaby North-Seymour: Strategically Vote NDP...I'm ignoring that one outlying Mainstreet poll which gave a lone 2nd place to the Liberal to make this call...Most importantly, the data really do suggest that it is folly to vote Green here...Sorry Dr. Quarmby - any other election, sure, but make no mistake, the Con could win here if there is a two + Green split here....OK?
Burnaby South: Vote your conscience... The Dipper is strong here, so it probably doesn't matter...But there have been no riding-specific polls...So...If you are a 'leaner' rather than strongly 'decided', you could make sure the Con is stopped, cold, by laying off Red and Green.
Cariboo-Prince George: Stategically Vote NDP...This is a little bit tough because of a possible rising tide for Mr. Trudeau regionally...But...There is a riding-specific poll that matches the historical norms which has the Dipper well ahead of the Liberal...Thus, to stop the Con, who appears to have come back to the pack, I suggest you go Orange...The Greens, thank the Spaghetti Monster, look to be less of a factor here than down south.
Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola: Strategically Vote Liberal... OK, I'm way out on a limb here without any riding-specific polling data, but...History suggests the Liberal is in 2nd and there appear to be a whack of Green votes here that CANNOT WIN...So, if folks were to lay of the Dipper AND the Green AND if there is a bit of a Con swoon...Well?
Chilliwack - Hope: Vote your conscience... Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway.
Cloverdale - Langley City: Vote your conscience...Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway...Update: Laila sent a note, via the Twittmachine, that the Liberal vote may be decent here for candidate-specific reasons.
Coquitlam - Port Coquitlam: Greens Only - Vote Strategically Liberal or NDP... The Con is vulnerable, but the lone riding-specific poll can't distinguish between Dipper and Liberal, both of whom look to have a shot...So, Green leaners who were to go either Red or Orange could actually stop the Con here...Seriously.
Courtenay - Alberni: Strategically Vote NDP... The Dipper is in potential trouble to the Con here but, make no mistake, the NDP is still the clear strategic vote choice in this riding...The real danger here, as is the case with so many Van-Isle ridings, is the potential Green bleed which four (count 'em, four!) riding-specific polls have pegged at between 10 and 15 percent...Listen-up Greens leaners! Your first choice candidate cannot win... But you could elect a Con if you don't move over to the Orange side of the ledger...OK?
Cowichan - Malahat - Langford: Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper looks to have comfortable lead...But the Con is within striking distance according to a recent riding-specific poll which had the Green vote at a freaking 19%......Greens leaners! You cannot win... But there is actually an outside chance that you could elect a Con by not voting Orange because you think it's a fait accompli...
Delta: Vote your conscience... Jeez Louise...I wish there were riding-specific data here to give us some indication of which way the wind is really blowing across the flatlands of 'Mall Land Looming'...Grenier's predictor has the Liberal in the lead but, based on the way he does his thing (as he himself has made clear - see postscript below), this is largely based on history and regional polling...Thus, I think Grenier's call here is very soft, especially given that this is one of those 'new' ridings...Long story getting longer?...I thought about calling this Strategic Liberal, but then realized that if I lived in this riding I would have a very hard time laying off the Dipper myself given the lack of hard numbers...Others may feel differently.
Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke: Vote Strategically NDP.... If this wasn't southern Vancouver Island it would be a 'Vote your conscience' given that the Dipper is in the lead and the Con is relatively weak based on two recent riding-specific polls...But...The Green vote here may be as high as 20% which is a really, really dangerous thing...So, like a broken record, I once again feel compelled to say...Greens leaners... Your first choice candidate cannot win!!!....However, you need to understand that there is an outside chance you could elect a Con if you don't vote Orange..Same with you Liberal leaners also, as your first choice is also barely cracking 20%... OK?
Fleetwood-Port Kells: Vote Strategically Liberal...The data are a little weak with only one riding-specific poll from Mainstreet...But Grenier too suggests that the Liberal could actually win...Therefore, this is one where Dippers and Greens could stop the Con by laying off of their preferred candidates because they both look to be out out of the race.
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Vote Strategically NDP...No riding-specific polling data available but, clearly, the Dipper is the only one who has a chance to stop the Con...Liberals and Green leaners (the latter of which are not insignificant here) who go Orange could really make a difference if there is any kind of a regional Con swoon.
Kelowna-Lake Country: Vote your conscience... History and no riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con lock here.
Kootenay-Columbia: Vote (Very Strongly) Strategically NDP...History and one riding-poll strongly suggest that the Dipper has a shot here....Neither the Liberal (even if there were to be a massive, nation-wide Justin effect) nor the Green (which might have up to 10%) have a chance...But just a couple of thousand votes from both could actually stop the Con for good... Do you hear that Red and Green leaners?...You...Can....Stop...The...Con by moving to the Orange candidate.
Langley-Aldergrove: Vote your conscience... I guess you could rename this riding 'Kelowna-South' if you wanted too, except that there is a bit of a Green presence here that won't matter because history and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon: Vote Strategically (But Softly) NDP... No riding-specific data to go on here, but....Historically strong second place for the Dipper and a bit of a Green presence...So, if folks laid off the Liberal and the Green candidates, and if the Con were to swoon into the mid-30's...Well...There is a long shot chance that the latter could be stopped.
Nanaimo-Ladysmith: Vote Strategically NDP... I know the Fed-Dipper braintrust screwed up here and sent Mr. Manly to the Greens but two riding-specific polls are telling us that the Con actually has a shot to catch the NDP candidate in this riding, in part because of the 20% bleed to Manly...The Liberal is probably only at 15%...So, in my opinion, the choice is clear in that leaners should lay off both the Red and the Green candidates to ensure that the Con is stopped mid-Island.
New Westminister - Burnaby: Vote your conscience... History, the Big Muddy, and Tugboats strongly suggest an NDP lock here.
North Island-Powell River: Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper here is strong....So, some folks (i.e. Green leaners?) may feel it is safe to vote their conscience...But the Con is in the high 20's, at least, and while the Dipper was at that magic 41 way back in mid-September, clearly Dipper support has fallen a little since then...So, I am refusing to see this as a safe 'Non-Con' seat...It looks like both the Liberal and the Green candidates are both at less than 20%, thus voters leaning that way can ensure that the Con is stopped by moving to the Orange side of the ledger.
North Okanagan-Shushwap: Vote Strategically NDP... Three very recent riding-specific polls by three different polling firms all have the Dipper in 2nd with a shot to stop the Con...This one is a surprise, but if enough Liberal and, especially, Green (who might have 10%) leaners were to vote Orange the Con could be stopped...In the Okanagan!
North Vancouver: Vote Strategically Liberal... Riding-specific polls say that it is only the Liberal that can beat the Con...So...Folks leaning towards the Dipper and the weather person Greeniac need to lay off both of them and vote Liberal to make sure the Con is stopped....(Sorry NVG).
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge: Vote Strategically NDP... This is NOT a pipe dream...History and a riding-specific poll suggest the Dipper has a shot... Just as importantly, history and the recent data very strongly suggest that both the Liberal and the Green are way out of it....Thus, if only a thousand Red and Green leaners, respectively, were to vote NDP instead the Con could very conceivably be stopped...For real.
Port Moody - Coquitlam: Vote Strategically NDP... This should be a safe Dipper seat...But Mr. Donnelly fell back to within 7% of the Con after the refugee thing...What's more, no riding specific polling has been done since the 3rd week of September...Through it all, the Liberal has not gotten to 20% and the Green has not gotten to 10%...So, Red and Green leaners - your first choice cannot win...Thus, you can make sure the Con does not win by voting Orange.
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Frackery: Vote your conscience... History and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.
Richmond Centre: Vote Strategically Liberal...This is one of those ridings where the regional Justin factor could give the Liberal a shot...That really is a bit of a suggest-o-gram but, clearly, history says the Dipper has no chance...So if Orange leaners (and the relatively weak Green voter contingent) can lay off their first choice and vote Liberal there is a chance that the Con can be stopped.
Saanich-Gulf Islands: Vote your conscience...Everybody who lives there (and/or who has gotten off the ferry at Swartz Bay and driven the Pat Bay into Victoria recently) knows this is a lock for Lizzy.
Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vote your conscience... Dipper Cullen in a Con-stopped walk given the lack of any evidence of vote bleed to the Liberals or the Greens.
South Okanagan-West Kootenay: Vote Strategically NDP...Two recent riding-specific polls suggest that the Dipper may have a slight lead over the Con in this new riding...These polls also suggest that the Liberal, while doing OK cannot win,....Thus, a Justin effect could actually really hurt here if it takes a couple of ticks away from the Dipper on the last weekend...There are also some Green votes to be gotten here...So, Red and Green leaners must lay off their first choice and vote Orange to help give the Dipper a solid shot at stopping the Con here.
South Surrey-Does Diane Watts (Get To) Rock?: Vote Strategically Liberal...There are no riding specific data here, but history and Eric Grenier say the Dipper has no chance...So, if there is a regional Justin effect and if the Orange and Green leaners were to lay off their first choice and go Liberal instead it is possible that Ms. Watts could be made to pay for toeing the Con party fear-mongering line.
Steveston-Richmond East: Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal.... It's a new riding in a Connish area where, in aggregate, the Liberals are strongly 2nd...So, given that the Dipper and the Green have no chance, if folks who lean that way were to vote Liberal instead, there is a wee bit of a chance that the Con could be stopped (Grenier actually has this one leaning Liberal, presumably because of the regional Justin effect layered over the history)...However, there are no riding-specific data, which is why this is a 'soft' strat-vote call.
Surrey Centre: Vote your conscience...I wish I could make the call to go all out Dipper here given that he is the (barely) incumbent...But there are no riding-specific data and Grenier sees the regional Justin effect getting the Liberal decently close, which is why I'm not making a Strat-Vote call except to say that this is one of those ridings where absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green, because if they very well could be working to help elect the Con (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).
Surrey-Newton: Vote your conscience... It's one of those 'new' ridings, but you could make a case for it belonging to the Dipper Simms...However, the aggregate votes from 2011 suggest it could go any which way. Thus, in the absence of riding-specific polls (why the heck aren't there so few in the South of the Fraser ridings anyway!!?) I honestly believe it wouldn't be prudent to make a strat-vote calll given the potential for that regional Justin possibility...The only thing that can be said for sure, again, is...Absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green in this riding if they don't want to see it go to the Cons (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).
Vancouver-Centre...Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal... Should be Hedy in a walk, right?....Well, the Con was actually reasonably close last time when that darned Green vote was 15%. So, sorry Dippers, but, given that, I'm making the strat-vote Red call here...Honestly, if it were any other election...(and if somebody actually has some hard numbers to share here, I'd be happy to reverse this one).
Vancouver East...Vote your conscience....She's no Libby Davies, but... The Dipper Kwan can't lose.
Vancouver Granville: Vote your conscience (with a big, fat green asterisk)... I guess this is one of the ones where I'm going against the party line...But....Looking at the four riding-specific polls I cannot see a strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Dipper....And, if you pull out the single outlying Mainstreet poll, I see no strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Liberal either, even with the potential Justin effect...So, what to do?...Well...Both the Red and the Orange are strong enough that if nobody (and I mean nobody!) with a progressive bone in their body were to vote Green, the Stealth-Con (i.e. the candidate that nobody in the riding has actually seen) can be stopped, regardless who actually wins...OK?
Vancouver Kingsway: Vote your conscience...This is a lock for the Dipper, Davies (Don, not Libby)...And, in my opinion, rightfully so.
Vancouver South: Vote Strategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...The riding-specific polls strongly suggest that the Liberal candidate has a real shot to stop the Con Wai Young (who just may be the worst MP, literally, ever)....Importantly, the Dipper has NO CHANCE here...Thus, if Orange and Green leaners vote Liberal instead, the Con Young can be sent packing for good....Do it!....And if you O&G leaners need a little more impetus, please understand that the despicable 'Hookers and Heroin' print ad that the Cons ran recently was clearly designed to target a specific Liberal-leaning demo that make up a significant slice of the electorate in ridings like this.
Vancouver Quadra: Vote your conscience... A lock for the Liberal, Murray...And, in my opinion, rightfully so (despite her previous stint as elGordo's Earth Wind and Fire minister provincially).
Victoria: Vote your conscience...This is one that really bugs me given that the Green, Roberts, might have an outside shot to knock off the Dipper, Rankin (which is purely projection from Grenier given the lack of riding-specific polling data)...If there was even a smidgeon of a chance that the Con could win here I would make a strat-vote Orange call but there is not...So... Why does this one bug me so much if the Con can't win?...Well...It is Mr. Rankin who is the proven environmentalist here, not the former MoCo maven Ms. Roberts.
West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Rafe Mair Country: Vote Stategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...There have been four riding-specific polls by three different outfits here since August...All have the Liberal in front with the Con second...However, the Liberal lead is not that large...Importantly, the potential Green and Dipper vote is significant but neither can win...So...To ensure that the Con is stopped Orange and Green leaners must vote Liberal...OK?
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If you want to look at numbers yourself, there is a really great aggregation of all the riding-specific polls in the country, including B.C.....Here....Eric Grenier's 'predictions' are....Here (but if you are not used to looking at/thinking about these be sure to read his disclaimer first [scroll down a little, here]).
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PercentVille
The following are my best guestimates about what you can (and, just as importantly, I suppose, can't) do to try and 'Stop the Cons' in every single riding in British Columbia...
The totals are: 'Vote Strategically For The Dipper' in 14 ridings... 'Vote Strategically For The Liberal' in 9 ridings...'Vote Your Conscience' in 19 ridings...
Feel free to throw in your two cents in the comments...
I'll make changes that make sense and/or where I've messed up right up until the last minute Sunday night....
Abbotsford: Vote your conscience...There have been no riding-specific polls here and history says the Con should be way ahead...But, never under estimate the work of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey and friends to raise the Dipper vote.
Burnaby North-Seymour: Strategically Vote NDP...I'm ignoring that one outlying Mainstreet poll which gave a lone 2nd place to the Liberal to make this call...Most importantly, the data really do suggest that it is folly to vote Green here...Sorry Dr. Quarmby - any other election, sure, but make no mistake, the Con could win here if there is a two + Green split here....OK?
Burnaby South: Vote your conscience... The Dipper is strong here, so it probably doesn't matter...But there have been no riding-specific polls...So...If you are a 'leaner' rather than strongly 'decided', you could make sure the Con is stopped, cold, by laying off Red and Green.
Cariboo-Prince George: Stategically Vote NDP...This is a little bit tough because of a possible rising tide for Mr. Trudeau regionally...But...There is a riding-specific poll that matches the historical norms which has the Dipper well ahead of the Liberal...Thus, to stop the Con, who appears to have come back to the pack, I suggest you go Orange...The Greens, thank the Spaghetti Monster, look to be less of a factor here than down south.
Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola: Strategically Vote Liberal... OK, I'm way out on a limb here without any riding-specific polling data, but...History suggests the Liberal is in 2nd and there appear to be a whack of Green votes here that CANNOT WIN...So, if folks were to lay of the Dipper AND the Green AND if there is a bit of a Con swoon...Well?
Chilliwack - Hope: Vote your conscience... Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway.
Cloverdale - Langley City: Vote your conscience...Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway...Update: Laila sent a note, via the Twittmachine, that the Liberal vote may be decent here for candidate-specific reasons.
Coquitlam - Port Coquitlam: Greens Only - Vote Strategically Liberal or NDP... The Con is vulnerable, but the lone riding-specific poll can't distinguish between Dipper and Liberal, both of whom look to have a shot...So, Green leaners who were to go either Red or Orange could actually stop the Con here...Seriously.
Courtenay - Alberni: Strategically Vote NDP... The Dipper is in potential trouble to the Con here but, make no mistake, the NDP is still the clear strategic vote choice in this riding...The real danger here, as is the case with so many Van-Isle ridings, is the potential Green bleed which four (count 'em, four!) riding-specific polls have pegged at between 10 and 15 percent...Listen-up Greens leaners! Your first choice candidate cannot win... But you could elect a Con if you don't move over to the Orange side of the ledger...OK?
Cowichan - Malahat - Langford: Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper looks to have comfortable lead...But the Con is within striking distance according to a recent riding-specific poll which had the Green vote at a freaking 19%......Greens leaners! You cannot win... But there is actually an outside chance that you could elect a Con by not voting Orange because you think it's a fait accompli...
Delta: Vote your conscience... Jeez Louise...I wish there were riding-specific data here to give us some indication of which way the wind is really blowing across the flatlands of 'Mall Land Looming'...Grenier's predictor has the Liberal in the lead but, based on the way he does his thing (as he himself has made clear - see postscript below), this is largely based on history and regional polling...Thus, I think Grenier's call here is very soft, especially given that this is one of those 'new' ridings...Long story getting longer?...I thought about calling this Strategic Liberal, but then realized that if I lived in this riding I would have a very hard time laying off the Dipper myself given the lack of hard numbers...Others may feel differently.
Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke: Vote Strategically NDP.... If this wasn't southern Vancouver Island it would be a 'Vote your conscience' given that the Dipper is in the lead and the Con is relatively weak based on two recent riding-specific polls...But...The Green vote here may be as high as 20% which is a really, really dangerous thing...So, like a broken record, I once again feel compelled to say...Greens leaners... Your first choice candidate cannot win!!!....However, you need to understand that there is an outside chance you could elect a Con if you don't vote Orange..Same with you Liberal leaners also, as your first choice is also barely cracking 20%... OK?
Fleetwood-Port Kells: Vote Strategically Liberal...The data are a little weak with only one riding-specific poll from Mainstreet...But Grenier too suggests that the Liberal could actually win...Therefore, this is one where Dippers and Greens could stop the Con by laying off of their preferred candidates because they both look to be out out of the race.
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Vote Strategically NDP...No riding-specific polling data available but, clearly, the Dipper is the only one who has a chance to stop the Con...Liberals and Green leaners (the latter of which are not insignificant here) who go Orange could really make a difference if there is any kind of a regional Con swoon.
Kelowna-Lake Country: Vote your conscience... History and no riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con lock here.
Kootenay-Columbia: Vote (Very Strongly) Strategically NDP...History and one riding-poll strongly suggest that the Dipper has a shot here....Neither the Liberal (even if there were to be a massive, nation-wide Justin effect) nor the Green (which might have up to 10%) have a chance...But just a couple of thousand votes from both could actually stop the Con for good... Do you hear that Red and Green leaners?...You...Can....Stop...The...Con by moving to the Orange candidate.
Langley-Aldergrove: Vote your conscience... I guess you could rename this riding 'Kelowna-South' if you wanted too, except that there is a bit of a Green presence here that won't matter because history and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon: Vote Strategically (But Softly) NDP... No riding-specific data to go on here, but....Historically strong second place for the Dipper and a bit of a Green presence...So, if folks laid off the Liberal and the Green candidates, and if the Con were to swoon into the mid-30's...Well...There is a long shot chance that the latter could be stopped.
Nanaimo-Ladysmith: Vote Strategically NDP... I know the Fed-Dipper braintrust screwed up here and sent Mr. Manly to the Greens but two riding-specific polls are telling us that the Con actually has a shot to catch the NDP candidate in this riding, in part because of the 20% bleed to Manly...The Liberal is probably only at 15%...So, in my opinion, the choice is clear in that leaners should lay off both the Red and the Green candidates to ensure that the Con is stopped mid-Island.
New Westminister - Burnaby: Vote your conscience... History, the Big Muddy, and Tugboats strongly suggest an NDP lock here.
North Island-Powell River: Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper here is strong....So, some folks (i.e. Green leaners?) may feel it is safe to vote their conscience...But the Con is in the high 20's, at least, and while the Dipper was at that magic 41 way back in mid-September, clearly Dipper support has fallen a little since then...So, I am refusing to see this as a safe 'Non-Con' seat...It looks like both the Liberal and the Green candidates are both at less than 20%, thus voters leaning that way can ensure that the Con is stopped by moving to the Orange side of the ledger.
North Okanagan-Shushwap: Vote Strategically NDP... Three very recent riding-specific polls by three different polling firms all have the Dipper in 2nd with a shot to stop the Con...This one is a surprise, but if enough Liberal and, especially, Green (who might have 10%) leaners were to vote Orange the Con could be stopped...In the Okanagan!
North Vancouver: Vote Strategically Liberal... Riding-specific polls say that it is only the Liberal that can beat the Con...So...Folks leaning towards the Dipper and the weather person Greeniac need to lay off both of them and vote Liberal to make sure the Con is stopped....(Sorry NVG).
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge: Vote Strategically NDP... This is NOT a pipe dream...History and a riding-specific poll suggest the Dipper has a shot... Just as importantly, history and the recent data very strongly suggest that both the Liberal and the Green are way out of it....Thus, if only a thousand Red and Green leaners, respectively, were to vote NDP instead the Con could very conceivably be stopped...For real.
Port Moody - Coquitlam: Vote Strategically NDP... This should be a safe Dipper seat...But Mr. Donnelly fell back to within 7% of the Con after the refugee thing...What's more, no riding specific polling has been done since the 3rd week of September...Through it all, the Liberal has not gotten to 20% and the Green has not gotten to 10%...So, Red and Green leaners - your first choice cannot win...Thus, you can make sure the Con does not win by voting Orange.
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Frackery: Vote your conscience... History and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.
Richmond Centre: Vote Strategically Liberal...This is one of those ridings where the regional Justin factor could give the Liberal a shot...That really is a bit of a suggest-o-gram but, clearly, history says the Dipper has no chance...So if Orange leaners (and the relatively weak Green voter contingent) can lay off their first choice and vote Liberal there is a chance that the Con can be stopped.
Saanich-Gulf Islands: Vote your conscience...Everybody who lives there (and/or who has gotten off the ferry at Swartz Bay and driven the Pat Bay into Victoria recently) knows this is a lock for Lizzy.
Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vote your conscience... Dipper Cullen in a Con-stopped walk given the lack of any evidence of vote bleed to the Liberals or the Greens.
South Okanagan-West Kootenay: Vote Strategically NDP...Two recent riding-specific polls suggest that the Dipper may have a slight lead over the Con in this new riding...These polls also suggest that the Liberal, while doing OK cannot win,....Thus, a Justin effect could actually really hurt here if it takes a couple of ticks away from the Dipper on the last weekend...There are also some Green votes to be gotten here...So, Red and Green leaners must lay off their first choice and vote Orange to help give the Dipper a solid shot at stopping the Con here.
South Surrey-Does Diane Watts (Get To) Rock?: Vote Strategically Liberal...There are no riding specific data here, but history and Eric Grenier say the Dipper has no chance...So, if there is a regional Justin effect and if the Orange and Green leaners were to lay off their first choice and go Liberal instead it is possible that Ms. Watts could be made to pay for toeing the Con party fear-mongering line.
Steveston-Richmond East: Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal.... It's a new riding in a Connish area where, in aggregate, the Liberals are strongly 2nd...So, given that the Dipper and the Green have no chance, if folks who lean that way were to vote Liberal instead, there is a wee bit of a chance that the Con could be stopped (Grenier actually has this one leaning Liberal, presumably because of the regional Justin effect layered over the history)...However, there are no riding-specific data, which is why this is a 'soft' strat-vote call.
Surrey Centre: Vote your conscience...I wish I could make the call to go all out Dipper here given that he is the (barely) incumbent...But there are no riding-specific data and Grenier sees the regional Justin effect getting the Liberal decently close, which is why I'm not making a Strat-Vote call except to say that this is one of those ridings where absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green, because if they very well could be working to help elect the Con (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).
Surrey-Newton: Vote your conscience... It's one of those 'new' ridings, but you could make a case for it belonging to the Dipper Simms...However, the aggregate votes from 2011 suggest it could go any which way. Thus, in the absence of riding-specific polls (why the heck aren't there so few in the South of the Fraser ridings anyway!!?) I honestly believe it wouldn't be prudent to make a strat-vote calll given the potential for that regional Justin possibility...The only thing that can be said for sure, again, is...Absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green in this riding if they don't want to see it go to the Cons (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).
Vancouver-Centre...Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal... Should be Hedy in a walk, right?....Well, the Con was actually reasonably close last time when that darned Green vote was 15%. So, sorry Dippers, but, given that, I'm making the strat-vote Red call here...Honestly, if it were any other election...(and if somebody actually has some hard numbers to share here, I'd be happy to reverse this one).
Vancouver East...Vote your conscience....She's no Libby Davies, but... The Dipper Kwan can't lose.
Vancouver Granville: Vote your conscience (with a big, fat green asterisk)... I guess this is one of the ones where I'm going against the party line...But....Looking at the four riding-specific polls I cannot see a strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Dipper....And, if you pull out the single outlying Mainstreet poll, I see no strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Liberal either, even with the potential Justin effect...So, what to do?...Well...Both the Red and the Orange are strong enough that if nobody (and I mean nobody!) with a progressive bone in their body were to vote Green, the Stealth-Con (i.e. the candidate that nobody in the riding has actually seen) can be stopped, regardless who actually wins...OK?
Vancouver Kingsway: Vote your conscience...This is a lock for the Dipper, Davies (Don, not Libby)...And, in my opinion, rightfully so.
Vancouver South: Vote Strategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...The riding-specific polls strongly suggest that the Liberal candidate has a real shot to stop the Con Wai Young (who just may be the worst MP, literally, ever)....Importantly, the Dipper has NO CHANCE here...Thus, if Orange and Green leaners vote Liberal instead, the Con Young can be sent packing for good....Do it!....And if you O&G leaners need a little more impetus, please understand that the despicable 'Hookers and Heroin' print ad that the Cons ran recently was clearly designed to target a specific Liberal-leaning demo that make up a significant slice of the electorate in ridings like this.
Vancouver Quadra: Vote your conscience... A lock for the Liberal, Murray...And, in my opinion, rightfully so (despite her previous stint as elGordo's Earth Wind and Fire minister provincially).
Victoria: Vote your conscience...This is one that really bugs me given that the Green, Roberts, might have an outside shot to knock off the Dipper, Rankin (which is purely projection from Grenier given the lack of riding-specific polling data)...If there was even a smidgeon of a chance that the Con could win here I would make a strat-vote Orange call but there is not...So... Why does this one bug me so much if the Con can't win?...Well...It is Mr. Rankin who is the proven environmentalist here, not the former MoCo maven Ms. Roberts.
West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Rafe Mair Country: Vote Stategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...There have been four riding-specific polls by three different outfits here since August...All have the Liberal in front with the Con second...However, the Liberal lead is not that large...Importantly, the potential Green and Dipper vote is significant but neither can win...So...To ensure that the Con is stopped Orange and Green leaners must vote Liberal...OK?
______
If you want to look at numbers yourself, there is a really great aggregation of all the riding-specific polls in the country, including B.C.....Here....Eric Grenier's 'predictions' are....Here (but if you are not used to looking at/thinking about these be sure to read his disclaimer first [scroll down a little, here]).
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#Elxn42...What Was That Crazy Globe Editorial Really About Anyway?
AllTheTheSundayMorningQuarterbackedTheoriesThat
FitVille
Nik Nanos is BellGlobeCTVTSNEverythingElseButRogersMedia's numbers guy.
And his rolling polls have had Trudeau ahead, with Harper in solid second, for awhile now.
And, bingo-bango-Tulowitzki's-one-armed-banjo, suddenly the Globe has an editorial calling for Canadians to vote against their own best interests, not for a Stephen Harper, but instead for a Stephen Harper-free Conservative Party of Canada.
Now.
Why would the braintrust at EverythingElseButRogers media go and do a thing like that?
Well...
All kinds of very smart, serious people (i.e. folks who work for non-EverythingBut media outlets) seem to think that something has come completely unhinged in Globe editor David Walmsley's office.
Me, I'm not so sure.
Instead, I think Mr. Walmsley and his compatriots may have been acting like a pack of crazy old uncles after they stared at the chessboard, and the Nanos numbers, for sixteen hours straight while wired on Wild Turkey and Tater-Tots looking for a way to avoid what they consider the REAL potential disaster that could arrive as early as Tuesday.
Which, of course, would be a minority-positioned Mr. Trudeau making good on his promise not to work with the Conservatives and instead make a deal with the Dutch Elm Disease-hating devil.
But...
What if the guy that Mr. Trudeau said he would never form a coalition with with were suddenly not running the Conservative ship?
Well, then, if that were the case maybe Mr. Walmsley & Co would be happy to say hello to..
The new (and improved) Foreign Minister Jason Kenney!
If you get my drift.
_______
Update: It looks like the Ottawa Citizen's resident Sushi Boy, Glen McGregor, is wearing a similar Sunday Hypothesis Hat while hiding behind his paper's ugly yellow front page....
.
FitVille
Nik Nanos is BellGlobeCTVTSNEverythingElseButRogersMedia's numbers guy.
And his rolling polls have had Trudeau ahead, with Harper in solid second, for awhile now.
And, bingo-bango-Tulowitzki's-one-armed-banjo, suddenly the Globe has an editorial calling for Canadians to vote against their own best interests, not for a Stephen Harper, but instead for a Stephen Harper-free Conservative Party of Canada.
Now.
Why would the braintrust at EverythingElseButRogers media go and do a thing like that?
Well...
All kinds of very smart, serious people (i.e. folks who work for non-EverythingBut media outlets) seem to think that something has come completely unhinged in Globe editor David Walmsley's office.
Me, I'm not so sure.
Instead, I think Mr. Walmsley and his compatriots may have been acting like a pack of crazy old uncles after they stared at the chessboard, and the Nanos numbers, for sixteen hours straight while wired on Wild Turkey and Tater-Tots looking for a way to avoid what they consider the REAL potential disaster that could arrive as early as Tuesday.
Which, of course, would be a minority-positioned Mr. Trudeau making good on his promise not to work with the Conservatives and instead make a deal with the Dutch Elm Disease-hating devil.
But...
What if the guy that Mr. Trudeau said he would never form a coalition with with were suddenly not running the Conservative ship?
Well, then, if that were the case maybe Mr. Walmsley & Co would be happy to say hello to..
The new (and improved) Foreign Minister Jason Kenney!
If you get my drift.
_______
Update: It looks like the Ottawa Citizen's resident Sushi Boy, Glen McGregor, is wearing a similar Sunday Hypothesis Hat while hiding behind his paper's ugly yellow front page....
.
Saturday, October 17, 2015
What I'll Be Reading This Christmas...
HeCan'tBeWoundedCauseHe'sGot
HisArtVille
Thanks to a linear type-type review by Dwight Garner and this interview with NPR I already know that I'll be spending a good chunk of the week between Christmas and New Year's reading Declan MacManus' massive tome titled 'Unfaithful Music and Disappearing Ink'.
Assuming, of course that any members of my family still stop by here occasionally.
Although.
I guess I could just tell them face-to-face while Mr. Harper's dragging the lake.
Or some such thing.
_______
And, ya, now that the leaf raking is done... I really am working on a Lotuslandian Con-Stopping Compendium....Should be up before the Blue Jays game is over.
.
HisArtVille
Thanks to a linear type-type review by Dwight Garner and this interview with NPR I already know that I'll be spending a good chunk of the week between Christmas and New Year's reading Declan MacManus' massive tome titled 'Unfaithful Music and Disappearing Ink'.
Assuming, of course that any members of my family still stop by here occasionally.
Although.
I guess I could just tell them face-to-face while Mr. Harper's dragging the lake.
Or some such thing.
_______
And, ya, now that the leaf raking is done... I really am working on a Lotuslandian Con-Stopping Compendium....Should be up before the Blue Jays game is over.
.
Friday, October 16, 2015
And Now For Something Completely Different...Seven Minutes Of Hunter Thompson, Sans Gonzo.
TheReturnOf
HSTFridaysVille
Yes, that's right.
It's vintage 1967 Thompson with Kitty Carlisle et al. on 'What's My Line'.
And he doesn't fool anyone.
But the $150 he takes home is probably more than he made on that bloody motorcycle gang book a few years before he went to work for Jann Wenner and wrote that 'other' book...
_______
Tip O' The Toque, as is so often the case for all things interesting on the YouTube, to 'Open Culture'.
This would have been the same year that Thompson told Lewis Nichols of the Times, who asked him what separated him from the Angels, that he had a gimmick. Specifically, that he could....Write.
HST Fridays you may be asking?....Well, it was a regular feature bakc in the dinosaur days (i.e. pre Haloscan's demise which means the huge comment threads are all done gone) 'round here....You can see some of the old bits....Here.
And, ya, I am procrastinating on my doing that riding-by-riding handicapping...
.
HSTFridaysVille
Yes, that's right.
It's vintage 1967 Thompson with Kitty Carlisle et al. on 'What's My Line'.
And he doesn't fool anyone.
But the $150 he takes home is probably more than he made on that bloody motorcycle gang book a few years before he went to work for Jann Wenner and wrote that 'other' book...
_______
Tip O' The Toque, as is so often the case for all things interesting on the YouTube, to 'Open Culture'.
This would have been the same year that Thompson told Lewis Nichols of the Times, who asked him what separated him from the Angels, that he had a gimmick. Specifically, that he could....Write.
HST Fridays you may be asking?....Well, it was a regular feature bakc in the dinosaur days (i.e. pre Haloscan's demise which means the huge comment threads are all done gone) 'round here....You can see some of the old bits....Here.
And, ya, I am procrastinating on my doing that riding-by-riding handicapping...
.
#Elxn42: Riding-Specific Polling...The Outlier.
AllThePollsThatMightNot
FitVille
Here's the latest synopsis from the boss of 'Mainstreet' Quito Maggi, the firm polling for PostMedia, in Burnaby North Seymour:
...“Right now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour,” continued Maggi. “There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. There’s not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.”...
Why do I raise this?
Because, as others, including Eric Grenier, have noted previously, Mainstreet's numbers are the ones that tend be most often differentcompared to the other pollsters.
Case in point, here are the multiple polls in that riding from Insights West:
So.
Either Mr. Maggi and his 'Interactive Voice Response' (i.e. computer interfaced prompting of responder) is pure genius....
Or.
Something quite different.
We shall see come Monday night.
_______
This is not a trivial point given that it is the single Mainstreet poll, this time compared to multiple Oracle polls (who also use IVM, go figure), that has allowed the proMedia mavens of Lotusland and the usual suspects from BCLiberal/Clarklandia make such a fuss about how Leadnow is a disaster because of the situation in Vancouver Granville.
The chart, above, comes a fantastic (and I mean fantastic!) Wiki page wherein someone has done the hard work of aggregating all the riding-specific poll across the country.
I'll be back with a more comprehensive look at Lotuslandian ridings later....
.
FitVille
Here's the latest synopsis from the boss of 'Mainstreet' Quito Maggi, the firm polling for PostMedia, in Burnaby North Seymour:
...“Right now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour,” continued Maggi. “There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. There’s not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.”...
Why do I raise this?
Because, as others, including Eric Grenier, have noted previously, Mainstreet's numbers are the ones that tend be most often differentcompared to the other pollsters.
Case in point, here are the multiple polls in that riding from Insights West:
So.
Either Mr. Maggi and his 'Interactive Voice Response' (i.e. computer interfaced prompting of responder) is pure genius....
Or.
Something quite different.
We shall see come Monday night.
_______
This is not a trivial point given that it is the single Mainstreet poll, this time compared to multiple Oracle polls (who also use IVM, go figure), that has allowed the proMedia mavens of Lotusland and the usual suspects from BCLiberal/Clarklandia make such a fuss about how Leadnow is a disaster because of the situation in Vancouver Granville.
The chart, above, comes a fantastic (and I mean fantastic!) Wiki page wherein someone has done the hard work of aggregating all the riding-specific poll across the country.
I'll be back with a more comprehensive look at Lotuslandian ridings later....
.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
The BC Liberal Flying Surrender Monkeys Are Out In Force On The Twittmachine Discrediting Strategic Voting.
Don'tMindUsWe'reOnlyThe
SeventyPercentVille
And it's all based on Leadnow's calling VanGranville for the NDP.
Look.
As we've been saying for days now that riding is currently too close to call.
And nationwide Leadnow has called things pretty much even Lib/Dipper.
So this demonization of them is ridiculous, especially for those of us whose real intent is to vote smart to Stop Cons.
And there are many ridings in BC where things are much clearer.
Here is a short list (I'll have more on this in a day or so).
______
Of course, the FSMonkeys are being aided and abetted by....You got it...The aggregator vs. riding-spec poll conflating Keef!
Re: All those FSM's pounding their phones simultaneously..Where is that confounded talking points memo anyway?
.
SeventyPercentVille
And it's all based on Leadnow's calling VanGranville for the NDP.
****
Look.
As we've been saying for days now that riding is currently too close to call.
And nationwide Leadnow has called things pretty much even Lib/Dipper.
So this demonization of them is ridiculous, especially for those of us whose real intent is to vote smart to Stop Cons.
And there are many ridings in BC where things are much clearer.
Here is a short list (I'll have more on this in a day or so).
______
Of course, the FSMonkeys are being aided and abetted by....You got it...The aggregator vs. riding-spec poll conflating Keef!
Re: All those FSM's pounding their phones simultaneously..Where is that confounded talking points memo anyway?
.
#Elxn42: In Which Mr. Harper Doubles Down On The Hookers And Heroin Smear.
DivideAndConquerTimesATrillion
ThirtyThreePercentPlusOneVille
Like I said yesterday, it's clear that the fine folks who are bent on destroying our country so that they can then rule over the rubble test drove this thing when they had Jason Kenney babble on about it as a one-off a couple of weeks ago.
And, clearly, they must have gotten the focus group-driven response they wanted from the tiny sliver of the citizenry that they think they can scare the bejeezus out of for no good reason at all, despite what the majority, medical science, and/or the Supreme Court of Canada have to say.
Otherwise, why would their (only?) candidate run towards it as fast as he can as noted by the MoCo:
Stephen Harper is defending a Conservative ad campaign targeted at Chinese and Punjabi-speaking voters in Vancouver and Toronto that claims Justin Trudeau supports the sale of marijuana to children, the expansion of safe injection sites and the establishment of neighbourhood brothels.
A spokesperson for the Conservative leader said the party doesn't comment on its advertising strategies, but Harper defended the campaign.
"Justin [Trudeau] refuses to acknowledge the damage that drugs do to families and communities," Harper, referring to the Liberal leader, said in a written statement from his office.
"He wants to allow the sale of marijuana in corner stores and increase the number of heroin injection sites, dangerously misguided policies that would only make drugs more accessible to our children."...
All being done, of course, while he and his flit around the 905 Belt with a crack thug that people actually should be scared of at his side.
I despair.
_______
Folks have been E-mailing asking about further Strategic Voting suggestions...I'm waiting until the weekend when I plan to have something comprehensive up...Day job and all that (plus I want to see if there are any last minute polls worth considering)...Again, though, as I said yesterday....Don't let Vancouver Granville scare you just because it is too close to call...Why?... Because there are many other ridings in British Columbia where the situation is already crystal clear....OK?
.
ThirtyThreePercentPlusOneVille
Like I said yesterday, it's clear that the fine folks who are bent on destroying our country so that they can then rule over the rubble test drove this thing when they had Jason Kenney babble on about it as a one-off a couple of weeks ago.
And, clearly, they must have gotten the focus group-driven response they wanted from the tiny sliver of the citizenry that they think they can scare the bejeezus out of for no good reason at all, despite what the majority, medical science, and/or the Supreme Court of Canada have to say.
Otherwise, why would their (only?) candidate run towards it as fast as he can as noted by the MoCo:
Stephen Harper is defending a Conservative ad campaign targeted at Chinese and Punjabi-speaking voters in Vancouver and Toronto that claims Justin Trudeau supports the sale of marijuana to children, the expansion of safe injection sites and the establishment of neighbourhood brothels.
A spokesperson for the Conservative leader said the party doesn't comment on its advertising strategies, but Harper defended the campaign.
"Justin [Trudeau] refuses to acknowledge the damage that drugs do to families and communities," Harper, referring to the Liberal leader, said in a written statement from his office.
"He wants to allow the sale of marijuana in corner stores and increase the number of heroin injection sites, dangerously misguided policies that would only make drugs more accessible to our children."...
All being done, of course, while he and his flit around the 905 Belt with a crack thug that people actually should be scared of at his side.
I despair.
_______
Folks have been E-mailing asking about further Strategic Voting suggestions...I'm waiting until the weekend when I plan to have something comprehensive up...Day job and all that (plus I want to see if there are any last minute polls worth considering)...Again, though, as I said yesterday....Don't let Vancouver Granville scare you just because it is too close to call...Why?... Because there are many other ridings in British Columbia where the situation is already crystal clear....OK?
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#Elxn42...It's Getting Down To Nut-Cutting Time For Strategic Voters In British Columbia..
MakingTheSixty-Six-And-Two-Thirds
MatterVille
_______
Updated: Thurs Oct 15th....I'll have a more comprehensive BC-wide overview on the weekend...In the meantime, someone has made a fantastic Wiki-Page which keeps track of all the riding-specific polling countrywide...Here.
______
The folks at LeadNow have made a select number of strategic voting recommendations based on riding-specific polling numbers that tell them that a vote for any other candidate is a potential vote for the Conservatives.
And it's important to note that they are telling we, the majority that make up the Con-Stoppers, to go all in for eight Dippers and eight Liberals Canada-wide.
In British Columbia it's a different story, again based purely on the numbers...
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - Alistair MacGregor, NDP...There is no evidence of a big Liberal surge here and the Green number is scary high (but not anywhere near the winnable range)....the Con is closer than you think (less than two MOE's)
Kootenay-Columbia - Wayne Stetski, NDP...LeadNow's last poll was late Sept, so I feel a little uncomfortable with this....But still there was no evidence of any BigMo for the Liberal and the Con and Dipper were/are in a dead heat.
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Sheila Malcomson, NDP...I know the Dippers screwed up here, but the Green, Paul Manley, looks to have levelled-off in the low twenties which just cannot win.
North Okanagan-Shushwap - Jacqui Gingras, NDP...Two recent polls from Oracle and Insights West have the Dipper and the Con neck-and-neck...This is a place where a last minute Trudeau bump could give it to the Con...And, regardless, the Green is hovering at 10% which is enough to decide it...Do the right thing to stop the Con.
North Okanagan-Shushwap - Jacqui Gingras, NDP...Two recent polls from Oracle and Insights West have the Dipper and the Con neck-and-neck...This is a place where a last minute Trudeau bump could give it to the Con...And, regardless, the Green is hovering at 10% which is enough to decide it...Do the right thing to stop the Con.
North Island - Powell River - Rachel Blaney, NDP....There has been some Con fall-off lately, but don't forget that the shenanigans are sure to surface to close that gap so please don't chance it Lib and Green leaners as your first choices are both below 20 and are out if it.
Port Moody -Coquitlam - Fin Donnelly, NDP....Ya, he is in trouble given event earlier in the campaign...But nobody can come even close to beating the Con so please don't waste your vote.
Now.
Many folks might be thinking that Mr. Trudeau is going to win so why bother.
Well.
If you really feel that way you should go read Eric Grenier's latest, because he who keeps track of multiple polls closest does his best to make a prediction but, in the end, gives up because it's still too close to call.
OK?
_______
And what about the Lotuslandian ridings not on the above list?....They, I think are going to have to wait...For example, it looks like VanGranville, based on multiple polls, is a statistical Non-Con dead-heat between the Liberal and the Dipper...
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