Friday, October 16, 2015

#Elxn42: Riding-Specific Polling...The Outlier.


Here's the latest synopsis from the boss of 'Mainstreet' Quito Maggi, the firm polling for PostMedia, in Burnaby North Seymour:

...“Right now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour,” continued Maggi. “There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. There’s not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.”...

Why do I raise this?

Because, as others, including Eric Grenier, have noted previously, Mainstreet's numbers are the ones that tend be most often differentcompared to the other pollsters.

Case in point, here are the multiple polls in that riding from Insights West:


Either Mr. Maggi and his 'Interactive Voice Response' (i.e. computer interfaced prompting of responder) is pure genius....


Something quite different.

We shall see come Monday night.

This is not a trivial point given that it is the single Mainstreet poll, this time compared to multiple Oracle polls (who also use IVM, go figure),  that has allowed the proMedia mavens of Lotusland and the usual suspects from BCLiberal/Clarklandia make such a fuss about how Leadnow is a disaster because of the situation in Vancouver Granville.
The chart, above, comes a fantastic (and I mean fantastic!) Wiki page wherein someone has done the hard work of aggregating all the riding-specific poll across the country. 
I'll be back with a more comprehensive look at Lotuslandian ridings later....



Grant G said...

Mr. K....Strategic voting.....If one wants to engage in strategic voting one must have confidence with polling companies, or a polling company...

Burnaby North Seymour...Vote NDP..Historical data says this riding has deep NDP roots.

If you believe the the Mainstreet poll...If you do strategic voting won`t work..Nearly every Liberal or every NDP vote would have to go one way ...Mainstreet has the Cons near 40%...

If polling data is wildly out...?

Anonymous said...

Can you tell me how any one in there right mind can vote for the cons. That name cons is a good description of that party. They are the only government that has been found in contempt of parliament, in Canadian history, also been convicted of election fraud. How can anyone trust them. What they are saying to the children of this country is its ok to break rules, break the law, as long as you win and your rich friends get richer. Whats next , if you don't agree with them they can through your ass in jail. Or even worse exterminate anyone opposed to them. Then say it was for the good of the country. Its really funny how greed can raise its ugly head.

RossK said...


Take home?

In my opinion, not all polls are created equal.



All that and...

...Never in my (almost) 56 years can I remember a Prime Minister pitting Canadians against Canadians for absolutely no good reason at all, other than, of course, an attempt to get to 33%.