Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Con-Stopping.... Lotusland's Last Chance


The exercise in keeping things clear for the converted in the strategic voting sweepstates, which was posted on Monday the 13th, follows the Updates ....


LiveBloggin' The ConStoppin' Round-Up.....You can do no better than to stop in early at Laura's and catnip's.....As for LateNight Lotuslandian musings, even though they haven't explicitly announced it yet, I would expect that the good folks at the The Tyee will be at it again...

Triple -O Saucian Update: NDP says that Robo-Calling trying to jam ConStopping strategic voting in Saanich and the Islands is not coming from them.

Double-Secret Probation Update: Strat Voting Thrown Into Reverse In Saanich and the Islands? Say it ain't so!


Updating: The ever cautious (and very solid) Greg Morrow has the following final predictions for Lotuslandian Ridings that are 'Too Close With A Con To Call' : VanQuad....NorthVan.... SurreyNorth.....Richmond....NewtonNorthDelta...VanIsleNorth....Saanich...Esquimalt......And perhaps most importantly for those still fence-poll sitting on the issue of Strategic Voting, Mr Morrow has the Lib + Dipper as two more than the Cons....Thus, we are definitely in potential coalition-driven Stevie Shut-Out Territory here.... (link to Greg's final pdf)

MustStrats (You Can STOP The Con)
Vancouver Quadra - This is a real nose holder; Greeniac Grice is good, but if you vote for him you will help elect the original Stealth-Con Meredith.....Therefore, if you want to Stop the Con you must vote for Lib Murray who is, unfortunately almost a LINO (the Dipper is way out of it here, don't waste that one).

WestVan-SunshineCoast-Resortatooie - This is important! The turncoat Greeniac Wilson cannot win, so don't waste a vote on him or the Dipper Forst because it's neck-and-neck between Con Weston and Lib Sutherland.....So this another nose holder where you must vote Lib if you want to Stop The Con.

Fleetwood-Port Kells - This is one where vote splitting could deliver it to the con of all Cons Grewal....I know the Dipper Fernando and the Green Newbold are both solid, but to Stop The Con you've gotta go with the Lib Locke (and she can win....last Nanos poll had Locke by a nose).

Newton-North Delta Forty - Super Scary....Con Pander with slight lead....Dipper Townsley may have a way, way outside chance but you've gotta go with the Lib Dhaliwhal to Stop the Con here.....and most importantly, do NOT waste one on the Greeniac Walker who is way, way out of it.

NewWest-Coquitlam - Dipper Black is still in lead, but it is not safe due to splitting....Thus, do NOT go with the Lib Hassen or Green Smith because to Stop The Con named Martin you must vote Dipper Black.

North Vancouver - Another split....stay away from Dipper Charrois and Greeniac Stephenson as neither can win.....To Stop The Con Saxton you must vote for the Lib Bell.

Pitt Meadows - Maple Syrup - Lay-Off the Lib Olson and the Greeniac Gildersleeve (despite the magnificent monicker) because if you do the Con Kamp can be stopped.....vote for the Dipper Bocking (he really has a decent shot - the others most definitely do NOT).

Richmond - Neither the Greeniac Wolfe nor the Dipper Jackaman can win, so do NOT vote for them because if you do the Con Wong might win.....You must go with the Lib Chan to Stop The Con (and don't stay home, because it's really, really close)

Saanich and The Isles - Look......If you are a Green and you want to Keep Nukes out of the Tar Sands must NOT vote for your man Lewis....and whatever you do, if you are a Dipper lay off your non-existent candidate because the Con Lunn can be beat if you vote for LibGreen Penn. Do not split the ticket on this one, OK?

Vancouver Island North - Vote Split Alert!!!!.....Greeniac Stone is a solid third but, like Lib Fleischer, can NOT win.....Con Duncan is very, very close and/or maybe even slightly ahead.....Thus, please, please, please, do not hand one to Harper here..... to Stop The Con go with the Dipper Bell.

Esquimalt - Juan de Frenchy Fuqua - I know the Dipper Burgis is solid and even has an outside shot, but the Con De Souza is way too close for comfort.....and whatever you do do NOT waste one on the Greeniac Gordon.....As I told my Dad this morning.....You've gotta go with the Lib Martin here.....you've just gotta....

MaybeStrats (You Might Stop The Con)
Burnaby-DoogieHowser - This one is a little bit scary.....It's been a see-saw between Dipper Siksay, who has a slight lead, and Lib Cunningham, but the Con Leung is within striking distance and the Greeniac Perry has a bunch of support.....So, my recommendation is to not waste one on the Greeniac.....and if you're a Lib who really wants to Stop the Con for sure, well this one should be a nose holder for you.....Vote the Dipper Siksay.

Burnaby-NewWest - Almost the same as Doogie Howser, but here the Dipper Julian has a reasonable and Poll-consistent lead on the Con Rakhra.....Still, to be safe, if you wanna Stop The Con for sure, do NOT waste a vote Lib Lenoski (currently way back in third) or Greeniac McLaren (solid 5K, but fading), neither of whom, obviously, can win.

Port Moody - Westwood - Polls are all over the place.....anywhere from Con Moore in a walk to Lib McKinnon havig a decent shot.....So, if everybody laid off Dipper Royer and non-NHLer Greeniac Brindamour the Lib could, maybe just maybe (but I doubt it), win......

North Surrey - The Dona Con is doomed if you lay off the Lib and the Greeniac (who cannot, I repeat, can Not win)....Go with the Dipper Arab who looks to have a Poll variable, but decent, lead in this one.

Nanaimo - Alberni - Dipper Martmaan has a slight chance to beat the Con Lunney, but only if everybody seriously lays off the Lib and the Greeniac (neither of whom has a snowball's chance in heckfire).

Nanaimo - Cowichan - Nanos gives Dipper Crowder a solid lead, but Decima is scary enough for Con Elley that I would suggest you lay off Lib Scott and especially Green Knighton (who is very solid third here, sorry, but I'm just calling them as I see 'em Thursday)..... If you want to be sure to Stop The Con in The Land Of The Disappearing Wood Fiber vote Dipper.

NoStrats (The Con Has No Chance)
Vancouver Centre - It looks like Lib Fry is pretty much a lock with the LINO-Con Mayencourt fading fast (ha!).....So, good guy Dipper Byers is a reasonably safe one if you feel you must vote your conscience here....Greeniac Carr also has a bunch of votes, so you could even go with Adriane if you feel you must give Lizzie et al. an extra buck seventy-five for next time around.

Vancouver Kingsway
- The Con Rayek cannot win (clearly we the people are now officially David E's worst nightmare).....Lib Yuan has a reasonable, but Poll variable lead on Dipper Davies who will be my vote here cause he could win with a surge.....Greeniac is way out of so if you are a progressive, well....Regardless, all consciences can rest easy here, at least in terms of Con-Stopping....

Vancouver South - Ujjal Doubles down, and maybe rakes in even more chips....errrrrr....votes .....you can vote for anybody you want in this one.

Victoria - Dipper Savoie is walking away with it.....safe to go Greeniac if you must....Lib is doomed (so much for Davey A's no-longer-vaunted, not-so-big-red-machine)....

Drats! (The Con Is In)
Delta-Richmond East - Pseudo StealthCon Cummins doubles down....a good place to go with the Greeniac Laine as he could come a solid third and earn the team bucks....Dipper Barna is way back....

Langley - The very bad Marky-Mark Maniacal Clone-Con wins going away (uggggghhhhh).....but Greeniac Meyer is solid - vote for him and give Lizzie money....

South Surrey - Whitebread - Con Hiebert can't lose, Green Blair has a good chunk of change and is neck-and-neck with unsupported Dipper Prontzos for third.....

And one last thing.....if folks in way Right-Coast Central Nova can lay off the Dipper, Lizzie can win!


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