Cummins Coup, ctd....What No Smear Site Could Ever Do.

ATaleOfTwoPolls
InTheFieldVille


Remember that original 'dissident' letter that Alex Tsakumis published on his blogsite way back on Oct 5th when he broke the story that started all the flap in BC Conservative Partyland?

You know, the letter that was apparently signed by and/or agreed to by 21 BC ConParty Constituency Association presidents calling for John Cummins to step down, a number which soon thereafter began to shrink and is now down to, according to Keith Baldrey the other day at least, six.

Well, one portion of that original letter, as duly noted by Mr. Tsakumis, went like this:

...John Cummins has taken us to the foot of the mountain but he is not able to take us to the top. We are therefore asking John Cummins to resign immediately...

And the very next section of the complete letter, which CKNW's Shane Woodford posted up a short time afterward,  went like this:

...As CA Presidents please voice your opinion and respond to this email with a simple "Yes, we agree that John Cummins should resign immediately" and help us stop the NDP from having a landslide victory in May...

All of which is fair enough, I suppose.

After all, the first section of the letter quoted above suggests that the popularity of the Cummins-led BC Conservatives had stalled. Thus, this rationale could be used as a reasonable justification for calling for Mr.  Cummins to step down because he wasn't going to win in May of 2013.

But the second section, in my opinion at least, could be open to myriad interpretations.

Particularly if it was the percerption that support for Mr. Cummins and the BC Conservatives was in free fall by, say, September (ie. just before the Cummins Coup Conflaguration began in early October).

But was it?

In free-fall in September, I mean.

Well, if you look at the latest, most up-to date tracker from the fine folks at the Mustel Group, who apparently were out in the field in September*,  it would be hard to conclude that there was any such free-fall happening at that time (note the very end of the thin, blue Con line):

Heckfire,  looking hard at those Mustel numbers it could even be argued that, particularly if you ignore the  May 2011 number as a potential outlier, things were actually still on the upswing for Mr. Cummins et al. through September.

Now.

Contrast the Mustel ticker above with the one that was released by Angus Reid the other day whose latest numbers were generated AFTER the Cummins Coup Conflaguration was already in full swing:**

Do you see what I see there for the BC-Cons in October,  a trend the Lotuslandian pro-Media quickly seized upon, with a vengeance?

Sure you can.

'Nuff said?


______
*Bernard von Schulmann, who noticed the Mustel offering before I did, had some concerns about when the latest polling was done and what the methodology was given that it was not made explicitly clear on the group's website (see our discussions in the comments).....Mr. von Schulmann's caution is well-placed....Regardless, however, it does negate the fact that Mustel did not note a drop in September.....If you look closely at AReid's blue line, you could easily make the same argument...I will agree, however, that the AReid line does make the case that the Cummins'-led Cons may have stalled at the base of the mountain...
**The latest AReid polling was done Oct 9-12th... By that time the proMedia 'round Lotusland had already started calling the BC Con Party a  combination clown/gong show, or worse...

.

Cummins Coup Ctd....The Curmudgeon Strikes Back!

CirclingAllWagons
ThenFiringInsideVille


According to Cassidy Olivier of The Province, John Cummins is telling dissidents to go to heckfire and back.

Here's Mr. Olivier's lede:

B.C. Conservative Leader John Cummins is set to quash a group of party dissidents who continue to call for his resignation — despite a majority leadership vote last month at the party’s annual general meeting.

In a statement to be sent out Sunday, Cummins will deliver an ultimatum, demanding that those “few but vocal” party members calling for his resignation either step in line or resign their party membership.

The dissidents will have until noon Wednesday to make their decision, according to a draft version of the news release provided to The Province.

“I am unwavering in my dedication to the B.C. Conservatives and fully intend to lead my party into the next general election,” Cummins says in the text....


Interestingly, Mr. Alex Tsakumis, who released the original letter of dissatisfaction yesterday that purports to have signatures from 21 constituency association presidents on it, did a wee bit of addition by subtraction before he described the dissidents as a majority of the 'active' BC Conservative party:

...Remember as well, that only 54 of 85 BC Conservative constituencies are up and running, and many of those with only 3-5 Directors in place. Just 35 of them are properly constituted. So, that’s 21/35 that want Cummins and his rabid church group gone pronto. That’s a whopping almost TWO THIRDS of the active party that demand Cummins and Co. be gone!...


In contrast, Mr. Bernard Schulmann, who did a whole lot of elaborate number crunching of his own, begs to differ:

...The ridings listed in the letter are in 18 of 20 cases (one of the 21 folks listed by Mr. Tsakumis, Ryan Warawa, apparently told Mr. von Schulmann that he did not sign the letter) locations where I would be very surprised if the party managed to get much beyond 5% in a best case scenario. They come from areas where Social Credit did badly in 1991, Reform badly in 1996 and Unity badly in 2001. It seems odd that the presidents from ridings where the party is likely to be weakest are the ones calling for Cummins to resign.

I thought I would measure how robust the Conservative constituency associations are and see where the opposition comes from from. My metrics are how long the CAs have been around and how much money they raised in 2011.

There are 16 current CAs that were formed before December 31st 2010 - 4 are calling for Cummins to resign. I know of five that are pro Cummins and six more that I can not confirm are pro-Cummins...

{snippety doo-dah}

...There are the 10 ridings I know formed this year, 7 are calling for the resignation of John Cummins....

{snippety doodle-dandy}

...Were some of these CAs formed just to go after Cummins? I do not know but it seems possible and probably a good organizing tactic. The news ones against Cummins are all centrally located in the lower mainland making it easy for someone to have organized them.

Of the 44 ridings that filed a financial return in 2011, only 10 raised more than $1000 and only one of those has come out against Cummins. This says to me that among the best organized CAs in BC there is no almost no interest in getting rid of Cummins...


Regardless the actual proportion of dissidents vs. non-dissidents amongst BC Conservatives, when I left the following comment at Mr. von Schulmann's place...

"Bernard,

Has the time come to ask another question.

Which is...

Was this timed to entice the disaffected back to the party to which they once belonge(d)/identified with?

(in time for May 2013, I mean)"

This is how he responded:

"I have heard from at least one BCCP insider who backs Cummins that they got an odd call from Rick Peterson earlier this asking about their take on the future of the party."

Now.

That makes the following re: Mr. Peterson (who is the kinda/sorta former BC Con candidate in suddenly Colin Hansenless Quilchena) from CKNW's Shane Woodford curious indeed:

...While former BC Conservative candidate Rick Peterson offered a no comment but seemed surprised when told he was to be the party's interim leader according to some reports...

****

Hmmmmm....

Is it possible that someone (or some conspiratorial group of persons) loves the smell of subterfuge on a Sunday morning?

We shall see, after Mr. Cummins' pushback letter is officially 'released' tomorrow.



_____
And for the (further record)...Mr. Tsakumis is also predicting based, it would appear, at least in part, on a non-denial, denial (and an apparent explicit statement of utter disdain for Ms. Christy Clark), that Mr. Peterson will become the interim leader of the BC Cons if Mr. Cummins is deposed....


.

Cummins Coup Ctd....And Then There Were Two.

NotSoCivilWarfare
ConCredTankingVille


Well, well, well....

What was once, apparently, 21 is now down to two.

JFowlie of theVSun has the latest 'letter' from those trying force John Cummins out as leader of BC Conservative/Socred Parking Meter Party.

And this one is signed by a grand total of two (count 'em!) constituency association presidents:

Here is Mr. Fowlie's lede:

VICTORIA - The presidents of two B.C. Conservative Party constituency associations issued a formal call Tuesday morning for John Cummins to resign as leader.

"Our letter is the result of a groundswell of (constituency association) presidents who did not know each other, but found each other by circumstance and discovered a common theme in the shortcomings of your leadership," read a letter to Cummins written Tuesday by Allison Patton, president of the Surrey-White Rock constituency association, and Ariane Eckardt, president of Burnaby North.

"The division that has occurred within the B.C. Conservatives has occurred under your watch. This division has cost us our only sitting MLA and the possibility of having others who were ready to cross," it continued, not outlining what MLAs may also have been ready to join the party.

"In short, we want you to know we are NOT leaving-but we ask, for the sake of the party, that you do."...


The entire letter from two (count 'em!) BC Conservative party members from Surrey-White Rock and Burnaby North is at the bottom of Mr. Fowlie's post (in its entirety*).

Interestingly, according to Bernard von Schulmann,  the Surrey-White Rock constituency association came into being in 2011 and raised a grand total of $125 in that year. Guess that is not where the 'big money' came from, eh?

Perhaps even more interestingly,  Burnaby North came into being just this year....Mr. von Schulmann also noted that a very large proportion of folks from the latter 'brand new' CA's signed the original coup letter.

Hmmmmm.....

_____
The VSun header, of course, is very different than Mr. Fowlie's piece (and is quite irresponsible in my opinion)...It goes like this: "B.C. Conservative Party members meet ultimatum with a call for Cummins to resign"...
*I'll get back to the matter of the 'full text' of coup letters later...

.

Cummins Coup ctd....Crazy Train Going Off The Rails?

JammingTheWurlitzer
OneWeeSpannerAtATimeVille


According to the BC Conservative Party 'dissidents', it was David Wilder who negotiated with, and obtained a resignation from, John Cummins before their presser yesterday.

All of which makes the following, just out from Jeff Nagel, of the Black Press most interesting:

...The dispute (between leader Cummins and the 'dissidents')  took a new twist Thursday morning when (Surrey-White Rock CA president Allison) Patton and Burnaby North constituency president Ariane Eckardt claimed Cummins reneged on a tentative deal that was to have seen him resign.

They said the arrangement brokered by Vancouver-Quilchena constituency president David Wilder was to have seen Peterson take over as interim leader and for Cummins to be paid $4,000 per month for six months...

The Patton-Eckardt news release said they believed Cummins was going to resign Wednesday afternoon, particularly after he twice delayed making a statement.

"According to further reports from Mr. Wilder, we discovered Mr. Cummins did not want Mr. Peterson to assume the position but that he wanted one of the women as Deputy Leader until he resigned by Friday," the news release said.

"We accepted the terms of his resignation via Mr. Wilder. To our surprise by 4 p.m. when our press conferences took place, Mr. Cummins had made no indication of this arrangement."

Cummins called the Patton-Eckardt statement an "absolute fabrication" that has also incensed Wilder and said his possible resignation was "absolutely not" discussed at the Wednesday meeting...

Hmmmm...

So, if the 'dissidents' are, indeed, being extremely economical with the truth on this particular matter, is there anything else they have been similarly parsimonious with that has made its way into the public prints recently?


______
Please note: I have also heard from The Province's Cassidy Olivier on the TwittMachine that Mr. Wilder told him that the dissidents' statement/e-mail was a 'gross misrepresentation'.

.

Cummins Coup, ctd....The Dissidents' Credibility Crumbles

TheSpearCarrierCalls
Bullsh*tVille

_____

Updates: At bottom of post...

_____

Yesterday, two BC Conservative Party dissidents, Allison Patton and Ariane Eckardt claimed that the party's Quilchena constituency association president, David Wilder, had brokered a deal the previous day that would have seen John Cummins step down as party leader.

Soon thereafter, we noted that proMedia reporters Sunny Dhillon (Globe), Jeff Nagel (Black Press) and Cassidy Olivier (The Province) were all indicating that Mr. Wilder was stating that this was not true.

To be even more specific, Mr. Olivier quoted Mr. Wilder as saying it was a 'gross misrepresentation' of what took place when he met with Mr. Cummins and various assorted sundry BC Conservative Party people recently.

Well....

Later yesterday, in a piece first published at ~6pm (the timing matters - see below), the VSun's Jonathan Fowlie had even more details:

...In both an interview and a press release, (BC Conservative Party dissident and Surrey-White Rock CA president Allison) Patton said the backroom deal had been negotiated Wednesday afternoon by retired lawyer and party insider David Wilder.

It’s a suggestion Wilder, president of the party’s Vancouver-Quilchena constituency association, flatly denied.

“Let me make this bloody clear, my name was used in vain. The events of (Wednesday) had very little to do with what was set out in the letter,” Wilder said in an interview.

Wilder agreed he had been a self-appointed “spear carrier” in an attempt to broker peace between the two sides.

He said he met Wednesday with party president Al Siebring, campaign organizer Will McMartin and one other party official. And he agreed he had been giving updates to Patton’s group of so-called dissidents.

But he was insistent that Cummins’ resignation was never on the table.

“There’s nothing that transpired that could have given them any possible hint in that direction. None.”...

Now, you think that would be the end of it, right?

Well, not so, according to one of the Dissidents-In-Chief, Ms. Patton:


...On Thursday, Patton stuck by her version of events, saying she believes Wilder was used by the party brass to deceive her group of anti-Cummins organizers.

“I think what happened is it was a complete setup,” she said Thursday.

“He was a pawn in their game. I feel bad for the man.”...


The point of this post?

Well, at this point, unless further actual real evidence comes to light, it would appear that the credibility of the 'dissidents' is in complete tatters.

So.....

Given that, why doesn't the proMedia call out the dissidents rather than constantly wurlitzering this he said/she said 'clown/gong show' meme?

I mean, by way of example, the VSun's on Fazil Mihlar was tweeting stuff like the following AFTER Mr. Fowlie's piece had been published in his own newspaper last night:

BC Conservative dissidents say John Cummins was set to resign vancouversun.com/news/Conservat…. The gong show continues!
— FazilMihlar (@FazilMihlar) October 12, 2012

No.

I am not making this stuff up.

If you doubt the veracity of my claim regarding the timing, click the embedded VSun link in Mr. Milhar's tweet and see where it takes you....

Yup.

That's right....

It takes you right back to Mr. Fowlie's piece excerpted above.

Sheesh.

______
Oh, and given how various editors appear to have developed a penchant for showing big, bold pictures of Ms. Patton at the top of their reporters' pieces, we thought some of our readers might be interested in another picture of Ms Patton with a couple of (not)BC Conservative Party political luminaries apparently taken earlier this year and posted on BC Blue's website.....Not that it means anything, or anything, because anybody can get their picture taken with both of those folks flanking them whenever they want, right?...
Update #1: Late Friday morning.....Bill Tieleman has more detail on the where and when re: the 'photo' linked to above....He also asks a number of potential 'dot connectorish-type' questions.....Here...
Update #2: Cassidy Olivier, in The Province, has more on the talks between Mr. Wilder and the various assorted sundry party members....Importantly, his report includes names of said sundry who I assume the media will now chase down to get their views/recollections of the matter....Anyway, what Mr. Cassidy has written essentially backs up Mr. Fowlie's story and it also makes it clear that, to Mr. Wilder's understanding, the fact that Mr. Cummins would stay on a leader was a precondition to the talks/discussions even beginning...There is also another bit of discordance between Mr. Wilder's account and the accounts of Ms. Eckhardt and Ms. Patton....Specifically, Mr. Wilder claims he was communicating with the two as the talks with Mr. Cummins et al. proceeded....According to The Province's Mr. Cassidy, the two dissidents have denied this....Now....Please do not forget, when the dissidents first started this wurlitzer wurring, it was they, and they alone, who were claiming that Mr. Wilder had brokered the 'resignation' deal.....OK?

.

Cummins Coup, ctd....And Then There Were Six.

AllTheMajorities
ThatShrinkVille


Six constituency associations that is.

Calling for John Cummins resignation.

At least according to Global TV's Keith Baldrey....

BCCP dissidents aren't going quietly. So far, 6 riding execs (that we know of) have passed motions demanding Cummins resign. #bcpoli
— Keith Baldrey (@keithbaldrey) October 16, 2012

Now.

While there are some 50 plus BC Conservative Party CA's, according to Alex Tsakumis only 35 of them are for real. Interestingly,  here is what Mr. Tsakumis wrote when he first broke the story of the apparent dissident's demands on Oct 5th:

"...Remember as well, that only 54 of 85 BC Conservative constituencies are up and running, and many of those with only 3-5 Directors in place. Just 35 of them are properly constituted. So, that’s 21/35 that want Cummins and his rabid church group gone pronto. That’s a whopping almost TWO THIRDS of the active party that demand Cummins and Co. be gone!..."


So.

Now that that original twenty-one has dropped to just six of thirty-five (that the good Mr. Baldrey 'knows' of), it would appear that it is no longer 2/3 of active constituency associations calling for Mr. Cummins' head.

Or even 1/3.

Because, in point of fact, it is barely 1/6th.

Then again, now that all the clown/gong show segments and pieces have come and gone in the Lotuslandian proMedia and the polls for the BC Cons have started to dive, why should said proMedia even bothering to try and find out what really happened.

After all, it's not like the proMedia's willingness to be wurlitzered had anything to do with that dive.

Right?


_______
Mr Baldrey had an interesting Tweet exchange with David Shreck (not Shrek!) over this matter last night in which the former said the actual number of dissidents doesn't matter....The exchange  ended when Mr. Baldrey said, perhaps tongue in couch potato chip-filled cheek, that he had no interest in finding out the actual number of dissidents because he had sports to watch on the TeeVee.

.

Cummins Coup, ctd......More Crumbling Of Dissident Credibility

AllTheStoriesThatShift
WhenALittleLightShinesInVille


Michael Smyth of The Province has spoken to one of the BC Conservative Party dissidents, Dr. Allison Patton, who has 'more' to say about the fact that John Cummins did NOT resign last week as she previously claimed he would:

....Last week, she (Patton) said, the dissidents were told by Conservative brass that Cummins was going to resign and an interim leader would take over.

"We were told it was a done deal," Patton said. "But it was a complete setup."...


Ummm....

No.

Recall, if you will, what really happened.

Ms. Patton and fellow dissidents, at a press conference of their own calling, and in a written press release of their own making, said that fellow BC Conservative Mr. David Wilder had acted as a go-between to negotiate Mr. Cummins' resignation.

Then, within hours,  Mr. Wilder flatly denied that this was the case to numerous media members including the VSun's Jonathan Fowlie:

....“(We were told) that John Cummins was ready to resign, and that it was just the details that were being worked out,” said Allison Patton, a constituency association president at the forefront of a drive to oust Cummins.

“We were made aware that the terms negotiated were that he resigned by Friday … and that it would be $4,000 a month given to him for six months, and that what had been proposed to him was that (Rick) Peterson would become the interim leader.”

In both an interview and a press release, Patton said the backroom deal had been negotiated Wednesday afternoon by retired lawyer and party insider David Wilder.

It’s a suggestion Wilder, president of the party’s Vancouver-Quilchena constituency association, flatly denied.

“Let me make this bloody clear, my name was used in vain. The events of (Wednesday) had very little to do with what was set out in the letter,” Wilder said in an interview...


Interestingly, Mr. Wilder's name appears NOWHERE in Mr. Smyth's report published today, Sunday, three days after the fact.

Hmmmm....

Is it possible that Mr. Wilder's role/non-role in all of this has been disremembered already?



_______
Something else was somewhat disconcerting about Ms. Patton's conversation with Mr. Smyth...Apparently, she can't remember if she has ever been a member of the BC Liberal party (or not)...

.

The Cummins Coup ctd....The Crazy Train Leaves The Station

DissidentsWurlitzeringAtWarpSpeed
InsideTheirPhoneBoothVille


Now the fine folks who want John Cummins to resign as leader of the BC Conservative Party are saying that Mr. Cummins had already agreed to resign before they held their pushback presser yesterday afternoon.

Seriously.

The following is the lede from Jonathan Fowlie's latest in the VSun:

VICTORIA -- BC Conservative Party dissidents say John Cummins had agreed Wednesday to step down as leader, but that he backed out at the last minute.

"We were made aware that the terms negotiated with Mr. Cummins were that he resigns by Friday with $4,000 per month for six months and that Mr. Rick Peterson would become interim leader," the group said in a press release Thursday...

Interesting to see Mr. Peterson's name pop up again.

No?


_____
Via the Twittmachine...Looks like The Province Cassidy Olivier has talked to both sides...He says he has a story coming soon.

.

Cummins Coup, ctd...Calling The Dissidents' Bluff?

AllTheDeadlinesThatChange
DisarrayVille

So.

It looks like John Cummins is going to wait.

Wait to see if the hardcore dissidents really are a 2/3 majority if 'active members'.

Or if they are just two.

Or if they are somewhere in between (and/or are being warehoused on the top floors of Gracie's Parking Lot).

From the MoCo's unbylined report:

Embattled B.C. Conservative Party Leader John Cummins has extended his deadline for 'dissident' party members to get in line and support him or leave the party.

Cummins initially gave those within the party who questioned his leadership until noon today to get in line or quit, but later amended the deadline, saying the situation was "fluid" and the party would have more to say following a news conference by two of the dissident members planned for 4 p.m. PT...

Hmmmm....

Four hours....All kinds of times for folks to really start ratchetting up the rhetoric, in the bloggodome and otherwise.

.

Cummins Coup ctd.....By The Numbers.

AllTheDissidentsThatFit
InAReallyLargePhoneBoothVille


So.

The BC Conservative party 'dissidents' held their big pushback presser yesterday afternoon.

And, according to The Province's Cassidy Olivier, in addition to Ariane Eckardt (the president of the Burnaby-North Constituency Association), the following very fine folks spoke:

...Allison Patton, CA president of Surrey White Rock, Ian Pyper, Oak Bay Gordon Head CA president and Rick Peterson, the deputy chair of the B.C. Finance Committee, also spoke at the press conference...

Hmmmm...

Four CA presidents, and one other guy with a most interesting political party affiliation history.

Does that mean that the dissidents really and truly represent, as Mr. Alex Tsakumis described them last week after they released their first letter calling for John Cummins resignation...

...a whopping almost TWO THIRDS of the active party...

Perhaps not, given that there are, according to Mr. Tsakumis at least, approximately 35 properly constituted BC Conservative Constituency Associations.

Then again, maybe there were thousands (or hundreds? or even dozens?) of rank-and-file BC Conservative Party members at yesterday's pushback presser demanding Mr. Cummins' head on a stick.

Hmmmm.....

Maybe we should have another look at Mr. Cassidy's Province report and see if we can find THAT number.

Ahhh, yes....Here it is (in bold tacked on to the end of the passage quoted earlier):

...Allison Patton, CA president of Surrey White Rock, Ian Pyper, Oak Bay Gordon Head CA president and Rick Peterson, the deputy chair of the B.C. Finance Committee, also spoke at the press conference, which was attended by about 20 members....



Twenty members?

Gosh. I'm not entirely sure that represents a solid majority of the active party either.

In fact, some might even conclude that it actually represents an not-so-solid minority.

.

John Cummins Coup, ctd.....The MBA Has It.

BusinessAdministrating'RUs
ConPartyPoliticsVille


Which fits, I suppose, if you think political parties should be run like businesses.

What the heckfire am I talking about this time?

Well, Shane Bigham of CKWX has published a most interesting quote from one of the pushback dissidents who signed today's letter against Mr. Cummins:

..."I personally feel, through my studies in my MBA in leadership, that John Cummins is not demonstrating the leadership qualities that I have come to know and expect from a leader," says Allison Patton with the CA in Surrey-White Rock...


But, here's the thing....

The business of business is business.

Not democracy.

Last I checked, at least.

.

Cummins Coup ctd....A Question For S. Woodford & J McComb

AllTheMediaSinsThatFit
OmissionVille

________

Update: In response to an excellent comment from Paul Willcocks (see thread attached to this post), I've editted the post to broaden the scope of possible relevant aspects of Mr. Marshall's and Mr. Peterson's political 'histories' the proMedia may want to consider letting folks know about.

________

Hey Mr. McComb and Mr. Woodford!

Perhaps you would like to mention to your listeners on the (notso)Giant '98 just which political party and/or parties, and/or party leadership candidates Mr. Rick Peterson and/or Mr. Hamish Marshall  previously worked for and/or with before they 'defected' to and/or 'joined' the BC Conservative Party.

Sheesh.

(just heard these two fine proMedia types discussing the 'dissidents' who are kinda/sorta/not really trying to depose John Cummins and are apparently not trying to become new the leader[s] because that would be 'absurd').

.

Cummins Coup ctd...Who Are The 'Dissidents' Talking To?

CircleAllWagons
FireInwardVille


Earlier today, we noted that a grand total of two presidents of two very recently constituted BC conservative party constituency associations sent a pushback letter to John Cummins.

Given that, we figured it might be worth watching for any statements from other presidents whose wurlitzering who didn't sign.

Was it because they disagreed with the pushback.

Or....

Was it because, like Nanaimo CA president Garet Hindman, they didn't even know about it?

Its a bit funny that the #bccp dissidents didnt even contact all the CA Presidents. I heard about the petition through the media. #bcpoli
— Garet Hindman (@GaretHindman) October 9, 2012

Gosh

Wonder if stuff like that (ie. motivations of the various factions, for example) gives media folks like Mr. Gary Mason pause (more on that later)?

.

Free Enterprisers Head To Whistler...But Will They Talk Northern Gateway?

AllTheFlackHackeryThatFits
CoupWhatCoup?Ville

_______

Update, Lunchtime: Well, it's official...Keith Baldrey has dubbed today 'Free Enterprise Friday'...Carry on....And nevermind that Curmudgeon under the bed...

_______

Was interesting to see the front-end puff-pieces start flying on the Eve of the BC Liberal Party's Destructio.....errrrr...'Convention' this weekend up in Whistler.

Puff-pieces like this, unbylined from the CP, in The Province:

...(T)here’s a quiet confidence rising from the (BC Liberal) party ranks as next May’s provincial election approaches.

Kootenay East MLA Bill Bennett, co-chairman of the Liberals’ campaign platform committee, said Thursday there’s a growing sense that British Columbians are starting to tune in to Premier Christy Clark’s jobs and families message.

Clark will address convention delegates on Saturday afternoon.

Bennett acknowledged that the Opposition New Democrats are ahead in the public opinion polls, but said voters are recognizing that B.C. is actually doing well while other jurisdictions are experiencing steep economic declines.

“We’ve had a pretty good two months here,” said Bennett. “The B.C. Conservatives are imploding, lot’s of people predicted that, so that’s helpful...


Hmmm....

There's that meme again.

The BC Conservatives are doomed/dumpkopf/destroyed.

And yet, the Curmudgeon at the top, the guy who says there will be a LibCon fusion over his dead body, is still out there....

Lurking.

And, perhaps most importantly, he is still drawing lines in the laissez-fairy-dusted 'Free Enterprise' sand.

Lines like this:

October 23, 2012 -Vancouver- John Cummins, leader of the BC Conservatives, today reiterated his support for the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline Project, saying that the economic benefits far outweigh environmental concerns.

“Given all of the information made public to date, I strongly believe that the Northern Gateway Pipeline should proceed as quickly as possible,” said Cummins, speaking today at a luncheon in downtown Vancouver.

“British Columbia desperately needs new capital investment, and new high-wage jobs,” Cummins added. “The Northern Gateway Project delivers both.”...

Gosh.

We can only wonder how stuff like that goes over with the Socred/Free Enterprise wing of Ms. Clark's tattered coalition.

What's that you say?

There is no Socred/FE wing left because they are all trying to figure out how to bring down The Curmudgeon and then mount a second coup against The Snook before she makes a final lurch towards the center line on Highway 99 and goes all in with the FedLibs for reals?

Come on the rest of you are saying

That's nothing but crazy talk.

Because everybody who is on their way to Whistler this morning is happy as a clam, right?

And absolutely no one is humming that old PF Sloan/Barry McGuire song.

Or Bigger E's and my newer one.

Newer song I mean....

______
Many thanks to Grant G for bringing Mr. Cummins' Northern Gateway continuing scorched mountain pass policy position to our attention....
Of course our song, thanks to the prodding of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey, is actually straight out of Phil Ochs....


.

Cummins Coup, ctd....Cue The Next Installment Of 'Tyranny Talk!'...

.

....At a really, really big blogsite near you due to the following, just released by the BC Conservative Party:

October 15, 2012 –Duncan- After several meetings over the weekend, the Board of the BC Conservative Party has settled the issue of internal Party discipline by voting to send out a total of 15 disciplinary letters, including terminations of membership and letters of censure. The discipline is being meted out to these 15 individuals for their ongoing and public calls for a leadership review in violation of the clear processes outlined in Section 11.04 of the Party’s Bylaws.

The affected Party members will be receiving notification of the disciplinary proceedings by mail this week.

Out of respect for the privacy of those involved, we will not be releasing the names of the individuals in question, and neither the Party President, the Leader, nor any member of the Board will be making any further public comment on these internal matters.....

Is Mr. Cummins On The Way Back...

...Up?

Well, the VSun's Vaughn Palmer certainly kinda/sorta thinks so. Here is his lede:

VICTORIA — After a season or two of discontent, the B.C. Conservatives find themselves in the position of having at least a hope in you-know-what of winning seats in the coming provincial election.

The most recent opinion poll had the party at 11 points among decided voters, which is potentially seat-winning territory providing the support were concentrated in a handful of key ridings.

The party has also scored favourable news coverage for its policy proposals, most notably the populist gesture of promising tax credits for frequent ferry riders and for toll-burdened commuters in Metro Vancouver...


Which will generate all kinds of hot air from the usual suspects on the Twittmachine.

But will there actually be any upward movement from that 10-11% floor?

Well....

I think there just might be.

And this is something I raised a couple of weeks ago (secret Talking Heads reference!) based on the most recent Angus-Reid tracker:




Do you see how the fall of that blue line has stabilized as the red one has done the same?

Now.

With that in mind, ponder the following....

What happens when all those barely BCLiberalish folks who have been itching to pull the lever on the far right come to the realization that the 'Coalition of the Christy' is doomed?

Which way do you think they will go?


________
And it won't take much, say an uptick of 3-5 points for the Cons, to put the BCL party into single digits in terms of actual seats...
There is another indicator that this scenario might actually be for real, I reckon.... Which was the fact that, according to the good Mr. Baldrey's most recent print column at least, BCL stalwarts out in the Valley (eg. Ms. Polak) are apparently generating non-party centric personal campaign literature in an attempt to separate themselves from the coalitional herd... 
And where did that image at the top of the post come from?...Well, awhile back, after the smear had started but the coup attempt had not yet been hatched, Mr. Cummins really was rising fast....So I wrote about it....

.

Stay Christy, Stay!

BeVeryVeryVery

CarefulWhatYouWishForVille

Is Ms. Clark incompetent?

In my opinion, yes.

Will Ms. Clark lose the next general election?

In my opinion, yes.

Must, as Rafe Mair just implored, Ms. Clark go?

In my opinion, most definitely...

No.

Why?

Because, as Norm Farrell suggests, by way of Justine Hunter's work in The Globe, it would appear that if Ms. Clark goes we just may find out who British Columbia's next made man (or woman) will be:

....It startles me though when a representative of the unelected elite feels sufficiently powerful to issue a public warning that promises, even threatens, political change. In Women voters turn their backs on BC Liberals ace Globe and Mail reporter Justine Hunter brings us the news:

...The centre-right is split and the advantage goes to the NDP.

“There is a responsibility on both sides to pull together,” [Philip Hochstein, president of the Independent Contractors] said. He directs this admonishment to the party leaders, Mr. Cummins and Ms. Clark. “It behooves both of them to pull together.”

Although neither leader is showing the slightest interest in détente, Mr. Hochstein suggested the people who bankroll the centre-right parties won’t allow this division to continue. “There are many discussions going on throughout the free-enterprise sector on how to make it happen,” he said. (emphasis added)

Interesting.

It brings to mind the decision years ago to remove Gordon Wilson and install Gordon Campbell as BC Liberal leader. The "free enterprise" coalition is in much deeper trouble this time around. What are they planning? A coup?...

Personally, I would rather stick with the Snooki we know.

Not to mention the Snooki we know will lose.

OK?

.