Thursday, April 04, 2013

Is Mr. Cummins On The Way Back...


Well, the VSun's Vaughn Palmer certainly kinda/sorta thinks so. Here is his lede:

VICTORIA — After a season or two of discontent, the B.C. Conservatives find themselves in the position of having at least a hope in you-know-what of winning seats in the coming provincial election.

The most recent opinion poll had the party at 11 points among decided voters, which is potentially seat-winning territory providing the support were concentrated in a handful of key ridings.

The party has also scored favourable news coverage for its policy proposals, most notably the populist gesture of promising tax credits for frequent ferry riders and for toll-burdened commuters in Metro Vancouver...

Which will generate all kinds of hot air from the usual suspects on the Twittmachine.

But will there actually be any upward movement from that 10-11% floor?


I think there just might be.

And this is something I raised a couple of weeks ago (secret Talking Heads reference!) based on the most recent Angus-Reid tracker:

Do you see how the fall of that blue line has stabilized as the red one has done the same?


With that in mind, ponder the following....

What happens when all those barely BCLiberalish folks who have been itching to pull the lever on the far right come to the realization that the 'Coalition of the Christy' is doomed?

Which way do you think they will go?

And it won't take much, say an uptick of 3-5 points for the Cons, to put the BCL party into single digits in terms of actual seats...
There is another indicator that this scenario might actually be for real, I reckon.... Which was the fact that, according to the good Mr. Baldrey's most recent print column at least, BCL stalwarts out in the Valley (eg. Ms. Polak) are apparently generating non-party centric personal campaign literature in an attempt to separate themselves from the coalitional herd... 
And where did that image at the top of the post come from?...Well, awhile back, after the smear had started but the coup attempt had not yet been hatched, Mr. Cummins really was rising fast....So I wrote about it....



scotty on Denman said...

As I said, there's a lot riding on Christy in a perverse sort of way. The graph illustrates the mirrored fortunes of BC Liberals and BC Conservatives. At the height of Christy's popularity, that is, before she broke her early election promise, the Cons were at nadir. They subsequently rose to parity as Christy sank to join the Campbellites (who appeared to have remained in control of the party) at the bottom of the tank. From this point in time the BC Liberals, formidably funded by the public purse, perpetrated many treacheries upon poor old underfunded John Cummins, whose party sank while he crawled under the porch to quietly lick his wounds. Yet the rise in BC Liberal popularity up until November, 012, I would ascribe to members' hopes Christy would be dethroned during their policy convention of that month; didn't happen and, sure enough, after a charitable plateau over Christmas, her numbers began to tank again while Cummins', right on cue, began to rise again. Still, talk of a palace coup kept many BC Liberals from stampeding to the exists.

Almost everyone agrees it's now too late for the BC Liberals to ace Christy and play a new leader in time for May's election date. (I may be wrong...getting a special hat made out of chocolate in case I am.) Almost nobody thinks the BC Liberals would dare abrogate the fixed-date law to extend their term in order to affect a more leisurely leadership change.

As the end game begins, particularly if Christy's campaign remains as lacklustre as her last throne speech, I believe, as you do, the last of the true believers will abandon the BC Liberals and, being true believers who cannot on principle vote NDP, will probably vote Conservative. Moreover, if polls suggest Christy might lose her own seat, expect a sudden spike in Conservative numbers. I'd therefore love to see some Van-Pt Grey polling leading up to the big day; even a hamburger poll would do. Think of it, all-beef for Ebby, farmed fish for Christy, tofu for the Greens and turkey for "chaos" Nickull, the Conservative candidate.

It would probably be prudent to recognize erstwhile BC Liberal votes might end up in any party--and I've always felt the Greens might be just as receptive as the Cons--or, as turnout predictions suggest, many might just stay at home on election day.

Norm Farrell said...

NVG's trend lines explain more than millions of words spilled by pundits and wannabe pundits. The Liberals have been gradually but steadily losing the confidence of British Columbian.

It's clear.

Enough said.

RossK said...


I agree with Norm.

Heckuva an analysis.




Regarding where they go, I can see bleed to the Greens as well...Thing is, I'm focussing on the hard right folks...And I think there are enough of them to spell certain doom if they decide to jump from the listing decks of the SS CoalitionChristy.