Thursday, September 24, 2015

#Elxn42...How Serious Is This Vote Splitting Thing, Really?

ThreeWayReallyCouldMeanConWay
AllOverAgainVille


Very serious.

Bruce Livesey, writing in the National Observer, explains:

...For voters desperate to end the reign of the Harper government this public squabbling between the opposition parties (that went on in last week's English language debate) is alarming, largely because they fear it will only help Harper garner a fourth term as prime minister. “We have an electoral system where a majority of people can vote for change and still see the Conservatives win seats because the parties refuse to work together,” says Amara Possian, election campaign manager for Leadnow, a national advocacy organization campaigning for strategic voting.

Some political experts agree. “It's most emphatically in Stephen Harper's interests to have the NDP and Liberals tied (in voter support),” says Toronto-based pollster and political strategist Allan Gregg. “He does not want one of them to collapse. If one of them collapses, he loses… He doesn't want any of them to have a knockout punch."

Indeed, while the chances of Harper winning another majority are looking bleak, winning a minority government is still firmly within his grasp. And that’s because the opposition vote is split between the Liberals, NDP, Bloc and Greens. After all, as long-time Toronto-based election consultant Warren Kinsella points out, the only reason Harper has won the last three elections is because “the opposition parties are exactly where he wants them – splitting the progressive vote…Until the progressive side gets its act together he’s going to win.”

Back in 2011, of 14.8 million ballots cast, 5.8 million went to the Conservatives, and a combined total of 7.9 million went to the Liberal, NDP and Green parties – a difference of more than two million ballots. And yet the Tories picked up an extra 23 seats and wrested control of the House....



Which, again, is why we, the 70% must take matters in to our own hands, riding-by-riding (i.e. National and Regional numbers don't mean squat here because voters need to know who best to vote FOR at the riding level to make a difference in the outcome).

And make no mistake, it won't take gazillions of votes from folks doing the right thing to affect change in many ridings:

...During the 2011 election, 6,201 votes was the combined margin of victory across the 14 most closely-contested Conservative ridings – with 6,215 being the number needed by the nearest parties in those races to have won them by one vote...

And, on that note, here are the current polling numbers for Pitt Meadows-LarryWalker, from Environics and the folks at LeadNow:




Do you folks leaning Red and Green see what you have to do out there to flip that riding out of the clutches of the CPC?



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Of course, the fact that many ridings will be swung by relatively few votes is also a scary thing because that means that's where the patented vote-shaving strategy of one party in particular can be particularly effective....Which is all the more reason for the 70% to take matters out of the hands of both the other 30% AND the parties themselves.

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14 comments:

Anonymous said...

SH:

In deep appreciation for your unselfish public service Rossk!

RossK said...

SH--

Don't know about you, but I'm just scared poopless.

Gosh...

Will that statement get me in trouble 9 (or 11? or will it be 13 by then) years from now when I apply to collect my OAP?


(and ya, I can see the lips moving for those of you doing the math!)

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Mr. Beer N. Hockey said...

The most difficult math of all is the number of seats where the vote split could screw us into another Conservative win. i.e. I can see people sorting things in a few ridings but I am having trouble seeing people do it in a lot of them. Democracy is a captainless vessel cast many a time upon rocky shores.

RossK said...

Beer--

Do you mean too many red seats and not enough orange?

I've thought about that a lot....And if, somehow Mr. Trudeau was to get a few points ahead I would feel very, very differently.

What's driving my compulsion here is the distinct likelhood that late on Oct 19th everything will still be close when the votes are counted in Lotusland....And if we give away a few seats like this one and those ones on VanIsle where the Greeniac is rising....Well....


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Anonymous said...

SH @ RossK:

I have a sick feeling, of impending doom.

The niqab issue has given The Hair momentum. I don't know how Mulcair could have deflected it. The testy exchange between Chantal Hebert and Andrew Coyne on the At Issue Panel after the debate, said much about the divisive nature of this issue. I don't think it's going away....unless...

Elizabeth May changes the dial on the media spin cycle, by lending her support to strategic voting. The media can dine out on that for days; especially if she throws her undivided support behind her acolyte, Justin, citing the "vision thing". We'll just have to wait and see how attached she is to her high profile as leader.

scotty on denman said...

It'd be bad to the Nth Harper reelected, but let not rhetoric defeat resolve to keep working at relief : yes, it rankles that anywhere -S- of 40% gets a parliamentary majority, but that doesn't mean, contrary to the anti-Con pean, "100% of the power." That is simply impossible: we have courts, and they've proved it---but, anyway, does no one even notice we live in a federated country? There's only one "100%" in this country: the Head-of-State is "100%" the person of Elizabeth II. Harper pulls ahead? Stay calm, it's not majority territory, but, more important, the prospect affects voter intention---and the case for SV becomes magnified exponentially, all the way up to a possible Con majority, that threat providing strong negative feedback. It's like earth quakes: you start worrying when you don't have any. Movement in the first week of the real campaign is expected, and gives voters something to work with. The worst thing, IMHO, would have been Cons holding the sleeper position shadowing a deadlocked opposition. For sure the national poll doesn't necessarily reflect riding polls, but, insofar as undecideds need to rationalize their decisions (as opposed to simple determination to avail of SV, no matter what), the national poll forms one of the puzzle pieces---or, perhaps one could call it a useful "augmentation" to decision-making. We have to accept reluctance to avail of SV is natural, but there's nothing like being informed of your hanging in the morrow to focus the mind. It is early yet, polling is still picking up first-choice response, and probably will till the eleventh hour.

Save some fingernails for later.

Anonymous said...

SH @ scotty on denman,

Thank you for your calming words of wisdom. There is much truth in your assurance that

"there's nothing like being informed of your hanging in the morrow to focus the mind."

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that some Conservatives will go Green: there's a Green Candidate in the new riding in the Southern Interior, which includes the South Okanagan, who could no longer support the record of his party, the Conservatives. After reading the Green platform and finding that is consistent with his values as a Conservative, he decided he would run for them. He reminds me of Manning Reformers: with a direct and unpolished way of speaking that should appeal to others who done with Steve and his minions.

RossK said...

Sure hope that latest Ekos poll is an outlier because it is not very far from majority territory...And when you think of the point-shaving that is sure to happen in key ridings...Well?

Mr. Beer N. Hockey said...

What I mean is too many places where strategic voting is going to have to win the day. I can see a handful of places getting with the strategic vote programme; I cannot see more - hope I am wrong about that.

RossK said...

Beer--

A handful would still be a lot if the current situation holds.

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Mr. Beer N. Hockey said...

It sure would be.

Anonymous said...

https://news.vice.com/article/officials-warned-to-be-on-lookout-for-voter-suppression-tactics-in-canadian-election

Anonymous said...

nationally

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/three-points-separate-major-parties-nanos-tracking-1.2580686

Anonymous said...

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/09/25/Strategic-Donation/