This is a first pass, and like our earlier post for Liberal leaning folks looking to vote strategically, it leans heavily on Eric Grenier's riding projections (and as we've discussed previously, I know that there are inherent problems with his methodology). I'll update it as more riding-specific polls are done.
Essentially, the key to this stuff is figuring out which ridings are in doubt where your party of choice's candidate CAN'T WIN.
That way you can vote for another non-Con party with a clear conscience (and be fairly certain that you are helping ensure that the majority of Canadians who want a change in government get it).
Cariboo-Prince George: Leaning Con, Liberal has no chance but the Dipper does...So, Liberal leaners can make a big difference in Con-stopping.
Central OK Similkameen Nicola: Strong Con, Dipper clear second but would need significant Lib and Green votes to win.
Coquitlam-PoCo: Leaning Con, Liberal has no chance but the Dipper does...So, Liberal leaners can make a big difference in Con-stopping.
Courtenay Alberni: Leaning Dipper, Lib has no chance but Con in the running...So Liberal leaners can make a really, really big difference to ensure a non-Con win.
Cowichan Malahat Langford: Leaning Dipper, Lib has no chance but Con in the running...So Liberal leaners can make a really, really big difference to ensure a non-Con win.
Esquimalt Saanich Sooke: This is NOT Elizabeth May's riding...Here Dipper is solid with Con in distant second...The problem here, as is the case with all South VanIsle ridings that are not a non-Con lock, is the potential for significant misguided Green bleed...Thus Liberal leaning votes sent the NDP's way could make sure nothing disastrous happens in this riding.
Kamloops Thompson Cariboo: Dipper and Con may be neck-and-neck here...Importantly, the Lib cannot, I repeat, CANNOT win this riding.... Thus, any Liberal votes that go to the NDP could be extremely useful, especially given that the Green vote is relatively weak here (compared to VanIsle at least).
Kootenay-Columbia: Like Kamloops the Dipper and Con may be neck-and-neck and the Lib CANNOT win here.... Thus, any Liberal votes that go to the NDP would be extremely useful for Con-stopping purposes.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Craneyon: Leaning Con, strong Dipper and Lib has no chance...So, Liberal leaners can make a big difference to stop Cons.
Nanaimo Ladysmith: Sure, this is strong Dipper territory...But given the potential for Green votes sliding up to the mid-Island, I would strongly suggest that Lib leaners ensure that the Con, who might have as much as 30 percent support, doesn't come up the middle, especially given that your Liberal candidate cannot win here.
North OK Shushwap: Leaning Con with clear 2nd place Dipper...Votes from Liberal leaners and a few Greens might just flip it.
Pit Meadows Maple Ridge: Con and Dipper running neck-and-neck...A solid block of votes from Liberal leaners could easily stop the Con here.
Prince George Peace River NorthernRockpile: With the Con so far ahead this is kinda pie-in-the-sky by the Dipper looks to be solid second...So, if I were a dreamer I would hope that all Liberal and Green voters would go orange here....Just don't pinch me!
South OK West Kootenay: Pretty strong Dipper with Con in second...The potential for Green hiving scares the heck out of me though...So, again, Liberal folks...Your candidate cannot win...Therefore, please do your best to ensure a solid Con-stopping.
Every other B.C. riding, at least as far as I can tell, either has a lock for somebody such that switching even half of the Liberal vote wouldn't help...There are two exceptions though, where the uncertainty makes it really hard and/or impossible to tell who the heck is in first or even second for sure...Both are 'new' ridings...Delta and Vancouver Granville.
I've already done one of these kinda/sorta for Greeniacs who want to Strat-Vote to stop a Con...It's here.
One for Dipper voters will soon follow.