Friday, September 11, 2015

#Elxn42....Who You Gonna Call?

...Poll Busters!

Which is just another way of saying that strategic voting might still really matter (i.e. because the demise of the FedCons has been greatly exaggerated by the long tail of the Duffmaster Flash thingy, which is all gone now for the duration).

But there is some good news.

And it can be found in Nanos' '2nd Choice Poll (scroll down)':

But here's the thing...

Those bendy-shoot Green-leaners (and the rest of us Con-Stoppers who are willing to be flexible) in Lotusland need to know who to actually vote for to be useful strategically.

And for that we need on-the-ground, riding-specific polls with decent statistical power (i.e. the National and Regional numbers mean less than zero from a strat-vote point-of-view).

And, just in case you don't believe me, that's the way it worked in Esquimalt in 2011.




Grant G said...

Duffy trial paused...But the Bruce Carson trial starts next week..(Sept 16) influence peddling and more...

RossK said...

Good point GG.


scotty on denmanc said...

It seems MSM emphasizes national polling numbers because they tend to show a 3-way split, but are useless at the riding level for discerning the non-Con strategic choice---except in the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey kind of way. The CBC's Vancouver afternoon show the other day invited an expert to explain SV---which he did in needlessly complex terminology (almost terms of art) to which the host responded with this almost scripted-sounding "aw shucks, I'm still confused…" WTF?

The biggest, most encouraging characteristic of this particular election that I've noticed is the high level of inarticulate dissatisfaction with government refreshingly inspired by a somewhat brutish desire to punish the culprits; these are far and away the greatest proportion of people who ask me about SV. Unless I'm mistaken (and, man! have I been that before) they seem to sense that their votes will "count" for something this time, and it has relatively little to do with arcane policy.

Naturally Cons would have us believe voting "against" a party or candidate is "undemocratic," but this new "whatever, dude" enthusiasm is something I've never seen before---"just tell me who to vote for [to rid the Con]." Fortunately it's not that difficult in my riding, the biggest nut to crack being, as always, Green vote-splitting.

Coming around the back stretch, things are lookin' fairly good, but this time there can be no complacency. These rustic electoral novices are looking for direction---that's the rub---and I'm not counting on MSM to assist in discerning the SV choice, rather, I'll take whatever they offer into consideration.

Have a great weekend, Ross. The field might start to spread out this week upcoming.

Ray Blessin said...

Could the solid Jeremy Corbyn victory in the British Labour party leadership vote have a positive effect for the left in our election? (if the reaction in England somehow seeps into the Canadian "news")