IfThePartiesWon'tDoIt
TheCitizenryMustVille
______
Friday Lunchtime: Please see the reader-driven update at the bottom of the post...
______
First, another important tidbit from that
Insights West Poll we mentioned yesterday, specifically regarding the malleability of so-called 'decided' voters in British Columbia:
Do you see what I see?
Essentially, those British Columbians who have identified themselves as Liberal and, especially, Green Party voters are those of us who are most willing to change their votes.
And, presumably, at least some of those 'changeable' Green- and Red-leaning folks are willing to do so if they recognize it will do some good (i.e. help stop the re-election of the Fed-Cons).
So.
Where could that 'good' occur in British Columbia, specifically.
Well, as a starting point I've had a close look at
Eric Grenier's early aggregator projections (from 308.com) and have tried to identify key ridings in a couple of clusters....
Ridings where hopeless (i.e. can't possibly win) Green votes alone (not to mention almost hopeless Lib votes) could stop the Con by helping to elect a Dipper:
Cariboo-PG....Here Dipper looks to be very strong but Green votes alone (not to mention a few % of those almost as senselessly weak Liberal votes) could seal it:
Con - 38
Lib - 11
Dipper - 42
Green - 9
Northern OK...Here, any significant movement from a stronger (but still non-winnable) Green vote could put the Dipper over the top for good...And, again, the Lib vote here that doesn't look like it can win either would help stop the Con.
Con - 34
Lib - 15
Dipper - 36
Green - 14
Central OK...The Dipper is only a little behind the Con and, if things stay the same the Green votes alone could turn this Okanagan (yes, Okanagan!) riding orange.
Con - 37
Lib - 20
Dipper - 33
Green - 10
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon...Here the Dipper has been rising even higher recently, presumably based on recent polls...That Green vote could drive in the last spike however.
Con - 35
Lib - 17
Dipper - 42
Green - 6
Ridings where hopeless (i.e. can't possibly win) Green votes alone (not to mention potentially hopeless Dipper votes) could stop the Con by helping to elect a Liberal:
Steveston - Richmond East...This is one where my Dipper compatriots may argue (and or get mad at me) but I just don't see that orang vote holding in this riding (although I'll change things if it does)...At the moment, the safe place for the few Green votes to go to surely beat the Con is to theLiberal.
Con - 31
Lib - 35
Dipper - 28
Green - 5
South Surrey - White Rock...Here, at least at the moment, things are a little more clear than in Steveston.... Greens for sure, and maybe a few Dippers too(?), should consider going Liberal to stop the Con.
Con - 34
Lib - 35
Dipper - 23
Green - 7
Richmond Centre...The Con is still pretty strong here, but the Liberal has gained and has a chance with those Green votes and a few Dipper votes for good measure.
Con - 37
Lib - 34
Dipper - 22
Green - 6
****
Finally there are a few weird ridings where it still looks it's too difficult to tell where, specifically, any excess vote should go to beat the Con....
First there is WestVan, etcetera where the Con vote is suddenly weak enough that it looks like even a 50:50 split in a significant (but not winnable) Green vote to either the Dipper or the Liberal could send the Con off to climb the Chief in perpetuity...I wonder....Should this be dubbed the 'Rafe' effect?
Then there are the new/redrawn Van-Granville and Delta ridings where the Con could win if everybody else doesn't get together to form some sort of an alliance (i.e. the nightmare scenario that elected so many Cons in 2011)....Ugggghhhh.
________
So, have at it...Especially you pros/insiders/deepnumberdivers out there...Again, please remember that this is only a first, early look at things...
And why am I doing this as an 'equal' opportunity Strat-Voting enthusiast?....Because, as things currently stand, I don't see this thing as being a majority for anybody...Thus, it is my position that anything that helps lower the Con count at the end of the day on Oct 19th is vital to the interests of all Canadians (and that includes those folks who are more than willing to vote against their own best longterm interests for an extra hockey stick or three)...OK?
Update: Paul Ramsey makes a very important point in the comments that the Grenier riding predictor runs on a "proportional swing model" which relies heavily on previous election results as a starting point that then change based on regional polling numbers as they roll out...While it has had some validity in the past with picking winners when things are pretty obvious, particularly as things get closer to E-Day (and more regional polls accumulate), it is no substitute for riding-specific polling - particularly in riding where things are tight...Which, in my opinion, is why folks should not get excited about single Forum polls that say the Dippers are in majority range (for example)...
.