Riding-By-RidingVille
Elizabeth McSheffrey has a primer up on how 'Strategic Voting' can be used to help defeat the Conservative Reform Alliance Party (of Peter MacKay's big give away) in British Columbia in the Vancouver Observer.
Here is her lede:
It’s still early in the polls, but so far it looks like B.C. may host some of the most competitive party races in the country.
According to the most recent data from threehundredeight.com, the NDP lead in B.C. with just over 40 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 27.7 per cent, and the Liberals at 23.2 per cent. The Greens trail in fourth with 7.9 per cent.
Anything can happen between now and the Oct. 19 election date, but pollsters and academics are advising B.C. voters early that every seat will count for those hoping to unseat the Harper government.
“It’s a very different ball game for the Conservatives from what we saw in 2011,” said Mario Canseco, vice president of public affairs for polling company Insights West.
“The fact that the NDP has peaked so soon might mean a lot of people who have been thinking about voting for the Liberals and the Greens might reassess their votes and look at Mulcair as the best alternative to topple the government.”....
And the key to this if we really want to do it?
And by 'we' I mean the 65% plus of Canadians who want a different government.
Well, we can NOT look at National, Provincial or even Regional numbers.
Instead we've got to look, hard, at things riding-by-riding.
Now.
So far there are all kinds of 'what once/what if/what may' happen-type synopses out there, but very little in the way of (publicly available) hard numbers.
We'll start trying to track it all, with rationales for where we think nose holding really might help (and, just as importantly, where it likely won't) starting next week.
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And, yes, I do recall why the good Mr. Canseco mentioned above is now at Insights West rather than that other polling shop he used to work for.
And as for the FedCon-Stopping analysis/rationale thing?...Ya...Have done that before too.
.
Well, we can NOT look at National, Provincial or even Regional numbers.
Instead we've got to look, hard, at things riding-by-riding.
Now.
So far there are all kinds of 'what once/what if/what may' happen-type synopses out there, but very little in the way of (publicly available) hard numbers.
We'll start trying to track it all, with rationales for where we think nose holding really might help (and, just as importantly, where it likely won't) starting next week.
_______
And, yes, I do recall why the good Mr. Canseco mentioned above is now at Insights West rather than that other polling shop he used to work for.
And as for the FedCon-Stopping analysis/rationale thing?...Ya...Have done that before too.
.
8 comments:
SH
The progressive vote needs to coalesce around candidates who can win. Riding by riding, we can wrest our country from the graspers and schemers. Harper is counting on green silos of altruism remaining thus.
Question is, can we game the gamers?
http://votebc.dogwoodinitiative.org
My riding - Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke - is a perfect example. Using redistributed votes from the former riding, New Democrat Randall Garrison won over the Conservative by less than two per cent in 2011. So relatively small Green or Liberal surges, assuming votes come principally from NDP supporters rather than newly engaged voters, could lead to a Conservative gain in the riding. Look forward to the analysis.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/08/10/Harper-Abuses-of-Power-Final/?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100815
SH--
Can we?
Yes.
And Paul's example is a good one.
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Paul--
I well remember the Oracle poll that helped push folks to Garrison (the weekend?) before the last election.
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SH
Martyn-Trickster-Brown and his Trojan Horse:
"All of the other leaders have good reason to both fear and welcome May’s participation in future debates, but none of those partisan reasons have the public interest at heart."
Ha! Ms. May's massagers on the right are getting busy. Surely, May knows what the true cost of her most excellent political adventure will be if the Progressive vote is split?
http://www.straight.com/news/505261/martyn-brown-greens-distress-call-all-canadian-voters
SH--
Especially, potentially, on South VanIsle.
Wouldn't that be crazy if it came down to that at the very end of the TeeVee coverage late on election night?
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SH
Rossk,
It will be crazy devastating. Like the abrupt end of the Golden Age of Davey.
SH--
Not sure anything will ever be as c.d. as that.
Ever.
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