Friday, December 08, 2017

The Keef Report....Cherry Picking.


Last night the good Mr. Baldrey told Global watchers and readers that, when it comes to Site C, he figures the provincial Dippers are finally acting like folks who are governing rather than activisting.

In addition, after noting, without actually coming out and saying it, that he has lost his insider access card because no one in the legislative corridors will tell him anything concrete (a good thing!), Mr. Baldrey threw out his 'Points to Ponder'.

Here is point #1.

  • If cancellation causes BC Hydro rates to increase by more than 10 per cent (something that the power authority said would happen), what would that do to the NDP’s mission to make life more affordable for people?


Do you see what is missing from the good Mr. Baldrey's pearly point re: the cost to ratepayers if the darned thing is actually completed (not to mention how BC Hydro costs have already been blown up big time - see Norm Farrell's point in the comments)?


Previous Keef Reports can be found...Here.
And, for more Advent Jukebox tidbits...Including a little digressive research of a superfluous kind into many of the tunes and/or the folks that have sung them go....Here.



Anonymous said...

There's a complex, unresolved question about what the schedule of repayment would have to be for Site C costs in the event of cancellation. Generally speaking, capital assets don't have to start being paid for until they go into use, so there's a political accounting benefit to completing Site C: it won't start impacting Hydro cash flow in an accounting sense until it's complete, after the next election. So from the point of view of suppressing Hydro rates in the short term, it's possible that completion is a net positive.

Of course, in the long run, we're all dead, and debt will have to be repaid, whether it's incurred in cancellation or completion, but in the short run, if the current sunk cost has to start being repaid immediately, cancellation could have an effect on rates sooner than completion.

Hugh said...

According to this Sun article from 2013, Hydro rates are going to rise by more a lot more than 10%, and that's not taking Site C into account:

This has to do with BC energy policies going back to 2001. Like you say, Site C, if completed, would cause rates to rise even more.

Anonymous said...

Again we see Keith "the irish drunk" Baldrey fear mongering about the NDP being in power. I never recall him saying such words about the previous government's plan for the Site C Dam. He was always parroting the corporate line from BC Hydro.

Norm Farrell said...

Keef worries that BC Hydro rates would rise if Site C is cancelled but fails to mention that rates have already increased rapidly in the last few years and will continue to rise substantially.

This is why:

In the most recent quarter, purchases from independent power producers (IPPs) were $395 million. In that period, BC Hydro sold 11,531 GWh of electricity to BC's residential, commercial and industrial consumers. In the same quarter of 2005, BC Hydro sold 11,718 GWh of electricity to BC's residential, commercial and industrial customers.

Our public utility sold more power in 2005 than in the same period of 2017 but it did this while paying $280 million less to IPPs.

At September 30, 2005, BC Hydro's total assets were $12.36 billion

At September 30, 2017, BC Hydro's total assets were $32.39 billion.

With that increase in assets of almost $20 billion, BC Hydro's internal generating capacity rose 16%.

The crown corporation spent huge sums to increase its internal capabilities and, in the recent quarter, it paid IPPs 3.5x the amount they were paid in 2005.

Yet, it sold less power to BC's consumers of electricity.

Any trained auditor would look at these numbers and immediately conclude there were major problems in need of scrutiny. Careful scrutiny.

The possibility of massive fraud exists.

But Keef tries to distract his audience with nonsense.

RossK said...

Thanks Anon-At-The-Top--

Regardless, this is NOT something the good Mr. Baldrey bothered to mention/detail to his readers. I guess nuance is for suckers (especially suckers who have been snookered).


Grant G said...

I think you all are missing the meme that Baldrey, and Palmer are selling, and the subtle messaging..

Baldrey is saying...(do what the BC Liberals were going to do, and what corporate media wants you to do and you'll look like government)...And the subtle messaging..approve Site C and us media will give you an easier ride...

That's the not so subtle messaging from media...

Problem is...Corporate will push just as hard for every other contentious project, Kinder Morgan..westcoast refinery, and when crunch-time comes, say around elections..

Vancouver Sun, and the Baldrey's will endorse and stump for BC Liberals..

Hopefully Horgan is smart enough to see through Baldrey's bullshit..

RossK said...

Oh, I don't think I'm missing that meme Grant - see first graph at top of the post.

I just wanted to point out that when he presents 'evidence' the good Mr. B. often does precisely what he accuses those dastardly vocal citizens....errr....'activists' of doing.


Sub-Boreal said...

This shtick about the NDP joining the adults in the room etc. is just a bit too transparent. That's not to say that the Dippers' brain trust won't jump in head-first, ready to grovel at any slim hope that they might get a few crumbs of favourable comment from the MSM.

By having Horgan finish Site C, Crispie gets the last laugh - twice: her vanity project get completed AND the NDP splits in the process.


North Van's Grumps said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

If site C goes ahead expect a 60% increase like Manitoba keeyask/bipole3 boondoggle they want 8% every year for 8 years to pay for it!
Muskrat falls 12.7 billion dollars in nfld/labrador.
Site c life of dam carring costs 30 billion dollars?a debt downgrade for all of BC debt.
Like Fast ferries they will ignore experts and go ahead.
and lose next election.?

Unknown said...

Stop site c. Desubsidise fracking. Direct(as in ORDER,or be fired)hydro to begin geothermal exploration,using drill crewsfrom fracking. Acquire chinas electric freighter tech,use to run b.c. ferries.Annnd....dismiss all liberal appointees without severance. Offer them a transfer to hospital laundry and cleaning crews.

Lew said...

BC Hydro’s point person on electric vehicles says BC Hydro has plenty of existing capacity to meet even the most optimistic forecasted demand.

Keef sat outside the cabinet chamber watching cabinet ministers come and go, and prowled the deserted legislative corridors, while doing lots of tea leaf reading. He should give some thought to which segment of society works best in the public interest; journalism, activism, or fortune telling?

There are two he hasn’t tried.

Anonymous said...

late underperforming and overbudget but on time on budget poli propa.

Anonymous said...

A bankers delight is a taxpayers blight.?

cfvua said...

We will all rue the day that siteC gets a go ahead on continuance. Skyrocketing rates, downgraded credit rating and a split that gets us back to the previous government. Oh and a lost productive valley, in terms of agricultur and wildlife, not to mention heritage and cultural values.
For a project that is doomed to sell production into a flooded market at a loss. The sunk costs argument fails in that much of the spent money was on offsite road upgrades, rocks and gravel stockpiles and sources. A comms tower and a rail siding. Bridges that access badly needed gravel supplies for future public infrastructure in the area. A sewer system and water source that are also needed for the immediate area. Remedial work costs are overblown as much has been done on the roadways and waste material a dumpsites. Start selling and reassigning assets and the actual sunk costs are lowered to perhaps $2B of which some was gained back in taxation by the few BC workers paying.
The poor geotechnical conditions seen in the North Bank are the cause of the 435 day/$330Million claim the contractor is battling with Hydro over. Hydro officials acknowledge the delay and say a year will cost $610 Million.The diversion portals that should have been
started months ago are located below the least stable area of the slope, which is steadily moving down to the river. Proceeding could result in buried portals as the slide continues. How much more money should be spent to find out that in a year the slope fails and the project has to be surrendered to the elements? The same geotechnical challenges prevent MOTI from re building the South Taylor Hill on Hwy 97. A much less costly project. Money has been no object for site c but there has to be a limit and the Premier should have no option other than termination with the evidence he has. Politics aside of course.

e.a.f. said...

so if I get this sort of right, Baldrey thinks my electrical rates might go up 10% if the NDP cans the Site C thing. O.K. that is possible. But then if I take this a tad further, if Site C goes ahead it will cost at least double, so them my electrical rates could go up 20%. Now I did fail math 11 but even I know 20% is more than 10% and I'd rather have a 10% increase in electrical rates than a 20% rate increase. Now if Baldrey thinks the province can sell all sorts of electrical power and mAke money.......gee, he's might have been into B.C.'s best agricultural product........

Of course our electrical rates have to increase because some one is going to have to pay for all that debt the B.C. Lieberals ran up, starting with el gordo when he decided it would be such a great idea to buy power at 10 cents and sell it at 3 cents. Even I a math moron, can figure that one out, just use my fingers and toes to do the math. Baldrey, use your fingers and toes to do math, you'll come to the right decision.

Can Site C. its a waste of our money. Start a re payment plan for the B.C. Hydro debts because its going to have to be paid back sooner or later and if we do it now, at least interest rates are still down. Wouldn't want those B.C. Hdyro debts when interest rates are up over 15%.

Anonymous said...

Subject: Call now to stop Site C!

Anonymous said...

oil wins again.?