Campaign Day 21 (cont'd)....Is It The Mechanics Or The Questions?

SeeSaws'RThem
Poll-A-Rama-Lama-Ding-DongVille


Latest from Environics has the LINOs up by 11:

....The 11-point Liberal lead is less than a Mustel Group poll released in the first week of the campaign, which indicated a 17-point spread. But the gap between the two parties in the Environics poll is greater than an Angus Reid Strategies poll last week, which had the Liberals up by just three points over the NDP, within that poll's margin of error – meaning the parties were effectively tied.....


Luckily, Patrick Brethour, writing in the G&M's almost E-Blog, is giving us a little context:

....The Environics poll was sponsored by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association of BC, which has said it opposes the NDP's election in the May 12 vote. The poll of 601 eligible voters was conducted between April 30 and May 2, and is deemed to be accurate within percentage points, 19 times out of 20....


Now.

When the Angus Reid poll came out last week, I wondered if the huge difference between it (3 pts LINO) and the first Mustel poll (17 pts LINO) had something to do with the sampling methodology (ie. web-based vs. phoning).

But now I think it is very important that we keep in mind, especially when partisans are involved, that the questions asked really do matter.

After all, the importance of 'the questions' was something we were blindsided by just before the election in May 2005.

Will have to try and look into that in more detail this time around....

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